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SP500 & Dow Jones are the most important stock markets to watch right now. With many calling for a recession, why are these markets continuing to show signs of strength?
Is it all short term or should we brace for much further downside? In this video, we’ll analyze the BofA Funds Manager Survey over the last 20+ years in the SP500 and what the results have been in the stock market movement from the survey. The results will shock you!
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Today's video let's look at why the Stock markets can go absolutely crazy After hitting some Max Payne signals out There in the market we're going to look At some ta as per usual this is what the Channel is dedicated towards and of Course Market sentiment as well so this Is going to be the main chart that we're Going to look at in today's video Looking at many of these cases where We've seen Max Payne from fund managers Getting it wrong at the bottoms of Markets we've got a lot to get through So let's not waste any time dive on in Hit the like button down below I'll Remind you throughout the video as well It does help out the algorithm and of Course subscribe with that Bell Notification icon so you can see these Updates in your news feed because we are The home of macro cycle analysis for the Stock market crypto and of course the Real estate Cycles a monthly macro recap Of the technical analysis for the Dow Jones is that we are now finding Ourselves in a breakout of the tops so This is again swing indicator you guys Can find a link to this in the top of The video description again swing Indicator this one helps remove the Noise of the charts and all of the ins And outs the ups and the downs and just Gives you a clearer idea of where the Trend is actually going we can see that
The trend has obviously been down but as We start to break past the upper swings Of the chart especially on such a macro Chart here like the the monthly this Starts to show that we could be in for Some higher prices because the trend is Obviously turning up now we'll talk a Little bit later in the video about Where this could land to but the first Good sign is that we have started to Break past some of the monthly swing Tops here on the Dow Jones what I've Been looking at is this particular chart Here looking at Global growth Expectations basically are we going to See some pump up positivity in the Markets versus pessimistic but tentative Signs of a trough now this is from Bank Of America Global fund manager survey I Don't like to put so much waiting on These on these sort of things but I do Want to keep up to date with what the Market sentiment is feeling and often we Can see the Opposites in what the market Sentiment is showing of course if you've Been following the channel you know we Do focus a lot on what people are Feeling and thinking and doing out there In the market compared to what the news Is actually telling us and something Like the Wall Street cheat sheet gives Us a cheat sheet of the emotions in the Market which then ties into explaining How the TA works like why the TA
Continues to happen when many people Believe it's just astrology for men now Of course the reason why charts continue To work is because humans keep doing the Same thing over and over and over again In the markets and they react to the Same sort of news the same way every Single time it's much easier to see on a Macro scale rather than getting into the Nitty-gritty of the minute charts or the Early charts so that's what we're going To stick to the the macro for this Particular setup for the the market Sentiment now we're also going to take a Look at some of the fear and greed Indicators here throughout the stock Markets but first this one here is just Looking at what fund managers are Feeling and doing in the markets at each Of these particular points throughout History going back to 1998. so what I've done is go back and Circle these on the Dow Jones which Moves very similarly to the S P 500 and So you're going to get the turns at the Same points in time now the first time That they got extremely bearish on this Particular chart the global fund manager Survey from Bank of America October 1998 December 2000 we can see here this is The November uh yeah the November period Of 1998 when they were extremely Pessimistic about the outlook for the Market it wasn't too far off the top but
It came at the time when the Market was Basically bottoming when they were Extremely fearful still and then we saw A top come out about a year and a few Months later so there was still a Topping process to occur this was Obviously the.com bubble but essentially There were the most fearful you can see Here at the wrong time of the market Again this is the next time here December 2000 it was a lower top forming And then we had that collapse from The.com bubble and this is why a lot of People still think that we have further To go you know recessions coming in next Year whenever we see a recession we Start to see bottoms around that time But in terms of what we're seeing with The market sentiment this is now the Most extreme time that the fund managers Have been bearish on the markets this is The most bearish time just let that sink In for a minute we've got August 2006. so this is at the bottom before The Market took off to new heights and You can see that they were getting Bearish because of potentially what They've seen as a double top got that Completely wrong Market took off to new Highs and potentially missed out on some Good profits there or getting in late Which is also really detrimental to Anyone's portfolio but in some cases if You missed that first part of the run a
Lot of those games have been had which Is why if you're still here in the bear Market for Bitcoin and cryptos you're Potentially going to get on the ride at The beginning of a Bitcoin bear Market As it turns or flips into a more bullish State this period here from 2004 into The beginning of 2006 was also Relatively bearish for a lot of the fund Managers but again they sunk into Further lows as the market continued to Climb and then drop back again the next Two data points are quite interesting it Wasn't until after the GFC top where the Bearishness came into this particular Reading here so you can see July 2008 on The dark blue line got another bottom And July 2008 is right here on the chart Just before we had that big drop off for The last few months into the GFC low and Then the market quickly recovered out of That low by the end of 2011 fund Managers were getting quite bearish Again you've got November 2011 here that Coincides with this bounce out of a Higher low and then the market moves on To new all-time highs the next Circle Point here is early 2016. so you can see he got bearish Again the market bounces out of that low We then move on to new all-time highs Again we have another low here December 2018 uh January 2019 so late 2018 early 2019 you can see here another
Bearish time and from that point the Market then pushed onto another new All-time high so at the point where the Market was at the low the fund managers Were most bearish expecting further Downside the market was actually Automating and had bottom and was Bouncing out of that low this happened Quite often throughout this entire Period here on the chart the next one March 2020 everyone's extremely bearish We all know what happened from that Point hopefully you were in the market From March 2020 or at least we're Covering some of your news from that Point and then watching these charts That was an extremely bearish time in The market March 2020 this was a time When everyone was saying we had to go Lower the market was over this 10-year Mega Bull Run had to come to an end And we were expected to come back to Previous old all-time highs from the GFC This is what was being said at that time And it's really important to remember History so that we don't make the same Mistakes moving forward and of course From that point it bounced Away really Hard really fast we've got a lot of Momentum and a lot of gains of course There's nothing that's 100 accurate you Probably heard me say that many times Before on the channel and it's important To remember that because quite often we
Want to see things that give us 100 Guarantees that this has to work every Single time we are investing we do have To take the risks with the rewards the Risks are that a couple of these times This didn't work out however overall the Market sentiment has shown especially at These extreme levels here like we can See 2006 the market still had a little Bit more to run before we got any sort Of major crash and that's precisely what We've been talking about here in terms Of the cycle we do expect that the price From here Can drop into a first quarter low and This has happened many many times before On the Dow Jones which I'll go into in Further videos but we did look at that In the previous videos of this week Looking at a 2023 uh forecast for the markets we've Seen multiple times if we just take 20 2001 and 2008 and 9 as an example we've Had lows where the market has dropped Into a July low a October low and then We've got a another low here in around March same sort of thing happened at the End of the GSC we had a November low Into a March low if we take it back this Was a July low so July into November Into March so July November remember That as we move forward into where we Currently are this is a June low so one Month prior to July this is an October
Low one month prior to the November low And potentially we could be setting up Right now for another higher low which May be one month earlier than March Potentially in February so we've seen This sort of pattern happen time and Time again where we start to form Bottoms around those particular dates It's like we've been looking at this is Going to be really important what comes Next the fund managers are getting Extremely bearish and we all know from Those points we usually see bounces out Of that level in the market some cases Quite extreme bounces in other cases not As strong but more often not these Bounces out of these extreme levels have Been quite extreme themselves and seen a Lot of pain for people who are expecting Much much lower prices I think this is Probably one of the most interesting Times that we're in the market right now As this is the most extreme bearishness That any of these fund managers have Seen over the course of this entire Reading this goes through the.com bubble The GFC bubble the pandemic Peak and Dump so it's going to be an interesting Time over this next first quarter which Is why I'm staying glued to the charts And to the channel and that is your Segue into liking and subscribing to the Channel now as I said earlier these are Just a couple more readings I want to
Have a look at for this particular video Now I've also got a Bitcoin video coming Out for you guys really soon just Looking at the monthly forecast for January I know it's getting later in the Month but either way it's going to give Us a bit of a road map for the rest of This month and it ties in really well With the US dollar collapsing and the Bounce that we have been anticipating Based on previous data as well so the Last couple of things to look at here For the fear and greed or the market Sentiment we are seeing higher lows on The fear and greed it's very similar to What's happening for the cryptocurrency Index as well we have the extreme fear In May with a higher low into September And October with another current higher Low into late December as well all of These tops are just starting to get a Little bit higher or basically topping Out around the same grade level but it's Very interesting to see that the the Extreme fear is getting higher and Higher meaning that it's becoming less And less overall even though these Prices had dipped lower into October and Now we're starting to see the Divergence In amongst investors across the board Not only are we seeing higher lows on The fear and greed index meaning that There is less fear in the market this is Also being represented in stock prices
Now this is not my opinion this is the Data on the charts here net new 52-week Highs and lows on the New York Stock Exchange so this is just looking at how Many stocks are breaking into new 52-week highs compared to the lows think About that for a second should we really Be seeing so many more stocks reaching New or well new 52-week higher so Basically a new higher in the last year Compared to stocks that are hitting new Lows in that same 52-week period if we Should be dropping out of the sky into New massive lower prices If this chart is at higher levels here As it indicates right now stop price Strength this is entering the greed Stage for this particular reading but of Course the rest of the market is still In this really bearish fearful state That recession is coming and we've heard That for over six months now recession Is coming recession is coming you could Probably say that we've been hearing it For over 12 months and we'll probably Continue to hear it at least for the First half of 2023 or potentially if we Make higher lows we'll continue to hear That it's exactly the same thing that we Heard on the way up out of the GFC low Speaking of this GFC low check out the Fund manager survey so this is investors Are now net overweight in bonds for the First time since the global financial
Crisis so why this is important is these Fund managers are invested more in bonds Than they are in stocks you know this is The uh the over balance here of the Bombs versus the stocks And this is the wrong time to be bonds Instead of stocks just based on what We've seen here over the last 22 years Because this is the March low so you've Got the 2000 2009 March low this other Little bar here is April And they are overweight in bonds when This was the best time which is right Here to be buying stocks instead of Being in bonds that was your best time Out of history of this last bull market To be getting into stocks because Obviously that is an absolutely crazy Game to be had from those lows but Instead at that bottom they were heavily Overweight in bonds because they wanted To keep their portfolios with relatively Low volatility and that was the best Time to be flipping from those bonds Into stocks that is exactly what we're Seeing right now of course this could go On for another few months I'm not trying To say that this is the exact low but We're seeing those same indicators that Happened back at that GFC low being Overweight and overly cautious near Market bottoms add to that some of the Fundamentals that are coming out of the US in terms of the unemployment claims
As well it's been less than what was Anticipated so less unemployment than What was anticipated all of this data is Working towards there not being such a Dramatic downturn that everyone is Expecting in 2023 of course that's my Opinion as I piece all of the puzzle Together and I have to take a position Because it's at the end of the day I am A full-time investor I hope you guys Have found a lot of value from today's Video do stick around on the channel Like And subscribe check out the videos That are popping up on your left hand Side over here for more macro analysis On bitcoin and the stock markets I'll See you again tomorrow for the next one Until then peace out
