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Every Great Rally must come to an end But that doesn't mean that the macro Trend is over today's video let's look At where this trap is getting set how The dumb money is getting played yet Again what are the key pivotal points to The downside should we see a correction Coming up very soon and of course we'll Cover this on the macro charts we're Looking at the stock markets and of Course our good faithful BTC if you Haven't already guys Smash Up the like Button get those fireworks going off When you click the button down below Subscribe to the channel Bell Notification icon anything else we need To do here click that link in the top of The video description to sign up to our Free investor Alpha report hopefully you Guys got that through to your inboxes on Wednesday so thanks for signing up down There and if you haven't click those Links down there we'll get on to some of The other shoe links later but for now We need to get into what is going on Right now in terms of the ridge crap That we looked at here on the channel Just a few days ago where the smart Money is signaling a massive trap coming In for the s p of course this is all Coming down to timing meaning which time Frame are we looking at I like to Emphasize the time frames here because It can get confusing especially if one
Person is in the mindset of short-term And the other is in a long term we need To Overlay the two which is exactly what I want to do in today's video looking at The possibility of a short-term Correction here with like we've covered The possibility of a trap forming yet Understanding the underlying macro cycle That is still going on which is what we Have here the first support leading down To the second support and finally where The cycle low so far has come in back in October so like we've looked at many Times before on the channel uh going Back a few videos again this is Potentially the transitional period the Period going from the Bears to the Bulls Of course there is a lot of people still Believing that this is the ultimate bull Trap of all time and we're yet to see The major collapse to lower prices I'm Always careful to explain that the Downside for me if this is a bull trap Which I don't believe it is now and We're getting more confirmation by the Day with breakouts of resistance levels But if this is the bull trap it has to Go under 3 500 points this is not a bull Trap if the market only corrects above Those levels that would be the start of A new bull market cycle should we get a Higher low form and potentially this Could be the higher low already for that Has formed at around 3 800 points on the
S p and for Bitcoin that higher low Could be that price of around 16.5 half Thousand and this may in fact be that First leg out of the cycle low I'm Thinking it's still just slightly too Early to call it but the probabilities From what I've seen here on the charts And the data that is coming in is Showing that this is more than likely The start of a new leg just like what Happened back in early 2019 this was Being called for as a bull trap and by All accounts this is the biggest Possibility of a bull trap which never Turned into a bull trap because There was no lower low a bull trap needs To have a lower low because it traps all Of the balls in and then crashes to new Lower prices so with all due respect to The bull trap callers this has to go Below 15 and a half thousand for it to Be a ball trap for Bitcoin and for the s P this Market has to go under 3 500 Points for it to be a bull trap Otherwise this is just the start of a New leg out so let's look at these Short-term stuff and then bring it back Onto the macro cycle because this can Get confusing like we said with these Trend transitional periods there is Going to be a lot of touring and Throwing from the Bears to the Bulls so What we currently see with the fear and Greed index for the stock market and
We'll also cover this in the the crypto Markets the fear and greed index is Hitting breed right now so this is for The stock market greed that was the Previous close at 73 a week ago was 68 So it was still in greed but we we only Have to go back a month ago and it was In fear remember the early days of January were sitting at this higher Low Bottom that was forming we came out of The low in October to a new peak in December that quick pull back to the low And now we've moved again from that Point and so we go back a year that was To February of 2022 that was all the way Back at these higher prices but remember Around that February period we had just Started to fall from those highs and at The end of February was the start of the Ukraine Russia invasion the war that was Going on and continues to go on over There so we're about to come up to a One-year anniversary of that but going Back to the fear and greed in the short Term and how that dumb money is getting Sucked into the Trap we just need to Take a look back at these peaks in the Market so around that August Peak that We had Bitcoin and the s p we also had a Peak back in late March and very early Of April and we had that recent peak in Mid-november and and around mid-December And there's a good chart here that we Can look at in terms of the fear and
Greed model where these peaks in the Greed had occurred were also peaks in The the market themselves it doesn't Necessarily mean that it is the peak and We go to a new low it just means that It's a current Peak and that's what We're seeing right now in terms of the Greed Zone here and we're starting to Climb up into those 4 000 points on the S P meaning more people are piling into The market as they mostly get more Confident in where to put their money Unfortunately this almost always happens At Market cycle Peaks and we could be Talking about short-term Cycles Long-term Cycles uh you know and and Extra long-term Cycles looking at the Macro across months or years but looking At the short term definitely in a Extreme greed section here just like What the fear is showing up on this Chart here sitting at around 72 for the Day so on the S P this is that possible Traffic wrap that we're leading into Into these Peaks at around this 41 to 4 200 points remember what we've been Looking at here we are wanting a break Above This level eventually and then Consolidation above that mid 4100 to 4200 level that is a bull signal that is A bull confirmation break above break This monthly swing top that was set back In August and hold above these levels to Consolidate to start that next move
Higher just like what we've currently Done here we've got a current low in December hopefully we can hold that and Continue to grind higher over the coming First half of 2023 but being a Transitional period this stuff is never Clear-cut and you'll have the Bears Because the Bears have been in control For the last 12 months praying that the Market goes lower which makes it very Hard for new Bulls to see a clearer Trend or at least try to get into the Market as early as possible it's usually After some of these more major breaks Happen that more balls start to Pile in And that's why we get a faster move to Higher prices the peak in August Coincided with the peak on the fear and Greed index here it's that high 60s Reading we looked at that peak in November and December again they Coincided with these tops that were Coming into the market before that low Was formed at the 50 level which we know Is a very strong support level the peaks In late uh May and June but more Importantly the peaks in late March and April formed this particular top right Here on the fear and greed the April and Other May and June peaks with this Little Peak here so this is where the Dumb money starts to Pile in and then You get a pullback in price so it needs To suck in as much money as it possibly
Can and then have that pull back so that Basically the profit takers can get Their profits and then we start that Next leg of the shorter term cycle if You're hearing on the channel around October November drop us a like down Below if you remember looking at this Level the 40 Point level on the crypto Fear and greed chart we were expecting Some sort of resistance some pullback Here and looking for a breakout of the 40 level and then also the downtrend Here what we also noted was the low that Was forming around July and June of 2022 Which for Bitcoin was this particular Low right here but we ended up going Slightly lower to 15.5 and obviously From history it didn't last underneath That low for too much longer and what Happened to the market sentiment is that It began to climb from that point so Like we were looking at with October and November with a higher reading on the Fear and greed meaning that there was Less fear and a little more greed Creeping into the market even though the Prices were actually dropping to Slightly lower prices is that was giving Us a Divergence in what people were Feeling or the market sentiment what was Actually occurring in the market there Was more buying activity going on Picking up the prices or at least Supporting the prices on bitcoin even
After that FTX drop so that bar in November that was a drop and it was only A matter of time until we basically Bounced well and truly out of that low If you remember is talking about that on The channel drop us a like and a comment Down below because this has been Critical to understanding what is coming Next layering the market sentiment what People are actually doing in the market Compared to their news with all the fear That's out there and then also layering This on top of the technical analysis Which has basically given us the insight To the market before the News tells us What has already occurred this other Level of the downtrend here in terms of The market sentiment was a critical Level for the market to break out and so This is the next key piece for this Potential rejection trap that is current Currently forming which may not occur But is currently forming we have to be Aware of it because of all of the key Price levels that the market is hitting Resistance on on the s p and also on BTC At around this 24 000 level uh basically From this point we have seen in the past The market get rejected at that market Sentiment especially after it has Climbed out of the major low the cycle Low and so the only time on the market Sentiment that we have here for the Crypto fear and greed index that is
Similar to now so unfortunately we only Have one data point but if we look back To December and January uh 2018 2019 we Had the market cycle low and then we had The market climbing out of this low we Can draw a horizontal line across at Around this 60 level because that's Where the market currently sits that's What we've closed at and you can see Around this 60 to 70 point level on the Fear and greed so basically the mark at Climbing out of extreme fear now into a Neutral and then greedy Zone on the way Out of the cycle low you can see how Many times we've hit this level and then Got rejected to fall back to around that 40 point reading so now could be a Reasonable time to expect a market Rejection at around this price maybe 24 Maybe 25 maybe we go a little higher but Essentially we could see a rejection at The price now because it seems like time Is starting to wear thin on these bulls And everyone else running into the Market basically the dumb money that's Left piling into the market to get a Rejection Let's hold our horses one quick moment As well because there is another Important piece to have a look at this Could mean a price reversal or it could Mean a price pause so what we saw back In 2019 as the market began to climb is Essentially just a pause like we saw in
March and then we also saw it in May so We did have a pullback here on the Weekly chart of about 12 but you could Imagine that people are probably waiting For a little more than uh 12 at the Current prices 12 down would basically Just bring us back to these tops at Around our favorite number here around Twenty thousand seven hundred dollars You've probably heard me talk about that Quite a lot because it has been a key Support and resistance level for BTC and So if we got back to that point you Could anticipate what the masses are Thinking and wanting from the market They're probably wanting under 20K you Now we've got that next psychological Level I want to buy Bitcoin under 20K And so that might not happen which could Then form that low or that little Short-term base and then the markets Start to raise higher now the second Option here is that the market basically Doesn't even give you that much so we Look back to May of 2020 so this is now Well and truly into this transitional Move for BTC in May and June of 2020 is This period here on the chart so we did Get rejected at around the mid 50s on The market sentiment and it pulled back To about 40. so during this entire Period of nearly two months Uh the market sentiment basically just Waned out went sideways into that
Neutral zone and in terms of price when We look back at this period here there Wasn't much going on between eight and a Half thousand and about ten thousand so It was quite a narrow range basically uh All of 10 to 15 percent move sideways And so if we look at where we currently Are now going from the top down about 15 That would again only put us to that top There around the mid 20 thousands for us To go into this period here of something Sideways while the market just rests Cools down before potentially another Leg up that's also quite plausible given The current structure and the stage of The cycle we're at in in the previous Market 2019 we basically shot off really Quickly if we look to something else That bounced out of a pretty significant Low after the pandemic the market went Sideways there in a pretty tight range So in both of these cases where the Market's sentiment topped out And had a bit of a reversal here so Looking back at around that 60 reading Each of those occasions and Unfortunately only have two the market Price really didn't come down that much So people were expecting a bigger Rejection it didn't occur the market Went sideways for a period of time and Then eventually just pushed out of those Levels just giving another couple of Opportunities to get into the market
Before it raced on again so the dumb Money trap could be forming right now a Lot of people feeling quite confident Getting into the market our fear and Greed indexes are showing that because We're in greed because the prices are Still higher people are fearing that They're not going to be able to get in And typically like we've seen from the Data on the charts of the fear and greed Indexes that there is typically a turn Around these times especially when the Market is not at all time highs and is Coming out of a cycle low so this sucks In the money we get that bit of a Pullback the money is waiting again for Higher prices the Bears come back into The market saying this was a ball trap And we're going to go lower not Understanding exactly what what a bull Trap is meaning that we have to break Down that previous cycle low point and Then the whole thing rinses and repeats Which is kind of a tricky game as we've Pointed out being that we are Potentially in a transitional period a Cycle transition a macro cycle Transition from the Bears to the Bulls This isn't going to be easy but if we Can stay alert to what we've seen in the Past and understand what we may see in The future is going to make life a hell Of a lot easier especially if we see Short-term pullbacks in the case of a
More macro cycle uptrend I hope you Enjoyed that Smash Up the like subscribe To the channel more macro cycle analysis On bitcoin cryptos the stock markets Commodities and of course real estate we Cover it all here make sure you sign up To the investor accelerator investor Report link is down below and for you Guys who are Traders links to our crypto Exchanges these are the last shills of The day buy bit bitget okx and Swift X Nearly 50 000 follows the sign up Bonuses down there use those links we Have trading workshops coming out Michael and I with the investor Accelerator if you want to learn how to Trade cryptocurrencies profitably and For the long term this is what we do on Full-time basis myself over 12 years Experience in Michael as well over 12 Years experience trading in the markets I hope to see you back here at the next Video Until Then peace out
