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No one ever said investing was easy and These days it's made even more difficult With the amount of news and noise and Outside influences that easily make Their way into our daily lives before We're able to make a decision in today's Video let's look at how this pain could Form for the everyday investor and how We can best avoid this we've got the Stock markets to get through and some Major Market sentiment updates if you Haven't already Smash Up the like button Subscribe to the channel we are here as Your home of macro cycle analysis across The stock markets Commodities real Estate and crypto how do we do it I'll Leave that up to you as you watch and Tune into the daily videos here on the Channel and also top of the video Description our free crypto and economic Reports emailed directly to you once Every two weeks jump on that list down There and we have far more information Coming up for you guys right there so The first thing I want to look at are The indices before we get to some of the Macro mark get sentiments flipping but Of course there can be a lot of pain Coming up this year for investors and I Don't mean pain to the downside of People buying at the tops and watching The market tumble against them there can Be some serious pain for investors that Miss out on this run and I want to show
You that in detail in terms of actual Raw data not my opinion just the data From the charts looking back at 90 years Of History so we'll get to that but just First up we want to have a look at is This bear Market over no doubt so I'll Make a video on this in in the future Talking about the bear Market being over But technically we just want to see what This means what investors have all Agreed on essentially the bear Market is Over when prices rise at least 20 Percent from the bear Market low so we Know that bear markets begin once the Prices drop 20 from the highs so that They say the same thing in Reverse from The lows and if we take a look at the Low Point here in October to the top That we've seen in January so far we're At 20.1 so essentially you can say that the Bear Market is over technically speaking Here of course this isn't the greatest Metric to say that a bear Market is over I wouldn't just rely solely on this Metric as we know from history that it Doesn't always work out in that way However when it has worked out it's Typically been a pretty good time in the Market to be buying even if the market Does fall after the 20 rise from the low In the past it has been shown to be Closer to the bottom so this is the Point here that I want to mention
Looking at this is the GFC dump on the S P the low from November into the peak of January so kind of a similar timing to What we're currently seeing ran up 26.2 percent now of course the market Tumbles into much which is another Reason why we're looking at our Cycles Looking at uh March having a low come Into the market doesn't necessarily mean It's going to be a lower low than October but I think we'll probably see Some sort of significant low coming up In quarter one something that I've said Many many times on the channel going all The way back to late 2022 let's wait and See essentially that did rise up 26 the Market then crashed again to that March Low and the fall was 29 so still quite Significant for investors portfolios but Like you can see it was coming towards The end of the entire move and if you'd Bought in this Zone and Back in 2008 and 2009 you would be Extremely happy with yourself saying That you caught the bottom and by all Means you can definitely say that you Caught the bottom that is the bottom of The market and like we know from history There's a GFC low this Market has just Gone absolutely ballistic from that low We can go to the Dow Jones from where we Currently are so essentially we've Looked at 20 up from the low is Technically calling for the bear Market
To be over however like we've just seen Sometimes in the past that isn't Necessarily true so we've got more data To get through but let's look at this For now so from the low to the current Top it's over 20 we're at 21 for the Dow Jones for the NASDAQ from the current Lows of October to the current highs in January we're at 23 percent and if we Take a look at other indices around the World we're starting with Australia the Bottom To the top we are now at 18 or a little Higher percent there getting extremely Close to the all-time highest it leads Me on to the next Point as well if we Tend to wait for more and more Confirmation we obviously lose out on Some of these gains from the bottom sure I hear some people saying why don't you Just dollar cost average in that's Another strategy if you choose to use That but timing is a really important Step here for many of these markets and That's what we focus on with our macro Cycles so looking at the Aussie Market It is less than one percent from its All-time high price looking at the UK Market it did Friday on Friday hit a new All-time high price is it out of a bear Market it's hit a new all-time high Price I don't know any Market that is Still called a bear Market when it hits A new all-time high price big thing here
We have to separate is what's going on In the economy and what investors are Doing with their money to make more Money in terms of the economy I agree With everyone out there I think food's Too high I think rents are too high I Think property prices are too high I Think energy is too high I think Everything is extremely inflated in Prices but I can't trade those markets And in terms of being able to actually Trade the markets and make money from it I need to go with what is happening on These bars and candles in the charts not What is happening at the grocery store In terms of prices of eggs so in this Case the UK Market the ftse 100 hit a New all-time high price by one point Sure but it did hit a new all-time high Price the Indian Market has been hitting all-time High prices since November and also in December of 2022. why do I bring these Up well these are emerging markets and These are the typical markets that tend To go first when the markets begin to Move and the U.S will begin to to catch Up with these and so there is a lot of Data in terms of these markets saying That they are out of bear markets I mean They're hitting new all-time high prices And also some of these being up 20 so Like I said we're going to get to that Other reason why it's possible that
We're going to see big pain for Investors who are waiting this year and Also higher prices as well so far I've Just given you all of the objective data From the charts just looking Specifically at low prices and high Prices and the timing of when these Particular prices are coming into the Market we've done nothing subjective so Far sure I've given you my opinion about What I believe is going on with the Prices of food and utilities and rent And sale prices you know that's just What is happening at the moment and my Thoughts on it but that doesn't change The market I can't change the market in Terms of that if you are finding value From this and you want to share it with Someone by all means go down below hit That share give it to a friend who Believes the markets are about to Capitulate and fall into these new crash Lows let them see some of the other data That is coming out there just like this Particular one here investors debt level Has been falling so we often see this at The low so we're looking at the S P 500 And number of months in past 18 months With a decline in margin debt so Investors are deleveraging at a rapid Pace so getting rid of that bad debt in Order to start to position themselves For this next particular move and we've Seen this quite often going all the way
Back to the 1930s so call it around 90 Years of History I do have some more 90 Year history coming up as well but in This case you can see a lot of these Major bottoms Align with number of months in the past 18 months with a decline in margin debt So that's 14 here now I want to take a Specific look at this one here because This was right in the middle of the Decline now this is the area in question Where the margin debt levels were Rising So the investors are de-leveraging Getting rid of the bad debt and that was Happening in the middle of this Particular drop this is the.com wreck From basically late 2000 to late 20 2002 Call it early 2003 if you're looking at That higher bottom but essentially it Was just that one period in the middle At the first bottom and then the final Bottom was registering registering at Around this period here so the number 12 So the 12 months within that 18. so Although it didn't hit it on the head it Was very very close to that next stage Of the bottom and we can go all the way Forward to the 2009 low 2008 2009 low Again that was up here at around 11 on The reading and each of these next major Lows all coincided with significant lows In the s p this is the pandemic low we Can take it back to some of the lows in The 50s and in the 60s again in the 60s
In the seven uh we start to get into the 70s here as well so it's not a 100 Percent accurate indicator but nothing Is but in this case there is a high Probability that we are passing through A low or just have turned from the low Like we discussed in the intro of the Video looking at lows and highs of the Market can be quite difficult to Identify and it often brings up a lot of Conflict with other viewers out there or People who are also in the market Because everyone is trying to be right I Mean I'm trying to be right because I'm Putting my money into the market which I Assume you are as well if you're Watching this content so I do want to Give you some of the opposite side to The equation maybe there is still the Case for a bear but we need to Understand the timing of that particular Information is it a short-term top In the midst of a long-term bottom I'll Get to that in just a moment but we we Have more data here about uh Unemployment because this is a big one That has been coming up a lot lately as Well so a good one here from Seth if you Haven't followed him on Twitter go and Check out his account a lot of this sort Of great data is from from there Historically whatever unemployment rate Has crossed above 12 month moving Average a recession has almost always
Followed shortly thereafter by average Of 3.5 months so the Red Dot is where we Are getting the crossover and then the Gray in the background is the recession So red circle you can see the cross here Gray in the background recession Recession recession and recession Recession recession you can go all the Way back here so the next part of this Tweet is further from 12 month moving Average unemployment rate today than Back in October 2022. so the unemployment rate today is Further away from this moving average Average than it was back at the lows Which is essentially signaling that we Are not due for a recession yet even if There is a recession the market is still On the way up so it depends on what you Are trying to trade here are you trying To trade the call of a recession which May in fact not give you any downside in The market or do you want to be trading The lows to the highs and taking a chunk Of profits out of the middle of the Market big thing to distinguish here Because there is a lot of talk about a Recession from the news and the media Outlets and essentially you can't Necessarily trade the term recession If The Fed calls it there is a recession Maybe the Market's going to shocked get Shocked for a brief period or a longer Period at the end of the day our jobs
Are to make chunk of profits out of the Middle of the market and unfortunately I Can't trade the word recession if you Can and you've made a market for it let Us know in the comments section down Below now here is the flip side to the Bullet case and this is looking at Medium-term risk levels so this doesn't Mean that we'll go to new lows and break The October low that was set in October Of 2022 but it could mean that we are Looking like a bit of a intermediate top Is forming at the moment so medium term Risk levels for the S P 500 so this is The highest level since early 2021 so This is uh the dates down here January 2021 you can see that this is 2021 and This was the top of the medium term risk Level we are now above the high risk so That's the reading here through that Horizontal and this is the highest level That we've been so the medium term risk Is that we are currently seeing at least An intermediate top on the S P which Coincides with the data we looked at in Yesterday's video where we could expect To see Some of the smart money selling out Waiting for the next low to come into The market and that brings up the next Point here what looks like opportunity To you is opportunity buying Bitcoin Above 21 000 you know if we get a Breakdown from the current levels of 22k
Is that opportunity or are you looking At Opportunity below 18 000 are you Waiting for this Market to dump back to 18 or do we zoom out even further and You're expecting the market to go below 15 000. what does that opportunity to You look like are you expecting bigger Dumps on the market so this is all going To be relative to your time frame and at What position you believe the market is In obviously we've been following the Channel I think there's opportunities Somewhere between 18K and about 21k for This particular drop just like we looked At in yesterday's video where we could Expect this to be either a pause so Somewhere where the market just churns Around between that 21 and 24 or maybe We'll get that bit of a dip slightly Lower to 18. and if that doesn't ring Opportunity to you between 18 and say 22 000 and you're expecting much lower Prices just have a plan for in case the Market doesn't get to that point because Next thing we know maybe we only get That short dip and then the market Starts to move away over the course of 2023 leaving all of those extreme Bears Behind so it's just a matter of weighing Up the probabilities what does Opportunity mean to you should you be Buying at these levels buying a little More at 18 and then sell on the house if It goes under 15 and if it never makes
It to that point what do you do after That point now for the extreme pain over The last 90 years S P 500 annualized Real total returns 1932 to 2022. When I saw this this was Absolutely incredible we all know the Old saying time in the market beats Timing the market well in this case it's Both if you're not in the market and You're still waiting to get into the Market this could absolutely destroy Your portfolio from October 1st of a Year two so we're looking at the Presidential cycle here right now we're In 2023 this is the third year last year Was the second year of the presidential Cycle and in 2024 is the fourth year so That's basically where the elections Occur we're in the third year so from October 1st of year two to April 30th of Year three a six month window the Majority of the gains happen this is Timing not time in so timing the market The majority of those gains are made Looking back over 90 years of Presidential Cycles which are Essentially four years we're currently In year three we have February March and April to go so we have three months to Go and my mistake early we actually have Seven months not six months between These periods here nonetheless if you Miss out on these moves waiting for that Collapse or waiting for the market to
Give you another signal all other times In the market have resulted in less than Five percent return so this could be Extreme pain for portfolios I definitely Don't want to be in the markets risking My my savings risking my investment Money for a measly sub five percent Return it's just not worth it so missing That seven month period of the Presidential cycle could lead to some Extreme pain if you need to share this With someone do so hit that share button Down below while you're there like Subscribe to the channel and subscribe To our free crypto and economic report Emailed to you once every two weeks Don't go anywhere we are back back here Again tomorrow looking at some of the More macro Cycles on bitcoin and the Stock market I hope you enjoyed that let Me know in the comments down below and I'll see you guys at the next video Until Then peace out
