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It looks like the smart money is Stealing from the dumb money and Unfortunately the majority of investors In crypto Bitcoin or any market for that Matter will lose money it's a set fact That 90 of people lose money potentially Even more than that in today's video Let's look at an update on how the smart Money continues to take money from the Dumb money and why only less than 10 Percent of people continue to win in These markets now there's some pretty Serious accusations not only to make a Nice headline title out there because That is what the YouTube algorithm wants But we do have evidence we always have Evidence but it's often or more Importantly always after the fact that It happens let's look at that in today's Video as we update Bitcoin the US dollar And the Wyckoff schematic as there's Plenty of confusion around which phase Of the Wyckoff schematic that we are in These are some big things to go through In today's video don't go anywhere but If you do make sure you hit that like And subscribe button our free crypto and Economic report is coming out this week Going through real estate Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies and of course the macro Cycle all right let's begin with the Bitcoin chart just on the short term to Have a look at some of the key support And resistance levels as we go through
And update these schematics for the Wyckoff analysis so we're currently a Few days down now with a small bounce Back over the last 24 hours to the Downside the current low is 22 700 but The more bearish number I'm looking at Is around 20 700 to around twenty one Thousand three hundred so this Particular zone right here is the area That the Bulls must defend in order to Keep us obviously at higher prices but In a in a stronger position moving Forward into this next stage of the Schematic now it's not the end of the World should we drop into this Zone what Would be the end of the world is if we Drop below the 18 and a half thousand Which is an area of I believe confusion Coming into the market for the schematic We'll get into that in just a moment but Essentially if we did drop below this It's more likely then we would go and Test 15 and a half I don't think that's Going to happen but of course that's my Opinion and I want to stick to the Objective data that we have at the Moment for the charts just looking at The support and resistance levels and How the setup would then change if we Were to break down underneath these Levels of around 18 18 and a half Thousand the first chart we're looking At here is the US dollar there are some Key patterns that are continuing to
Repeat over and over again not over the Course of days or even weeks but over The course of years and this time may Not be any different I know a lot of People looking for differences over and Over again but it seems like we might be Following a similar path to what has Happened already on the US dollar as the US dollar has gone up this has been a Time that has been quite difficult for The Bitcoin price as it has come down or At least shown just a little bit of a Pause that has been better for Bitcoin Now this is in the daily chart right Here and this is the Bitcoin top so you Can see on the 2nd of February that was The top and then around this time here That 13th we had that bottom for BTC so Looking at this there's the second There's a US top US Dollar Bottom the Bitcoin top and then we come down here You've got the 10th and then again here Around the 13th that was the bottom for BTC and you can see that the dollar Topped out at this area this is where Things get a little bit trickier we had US dollar going up And then we had Bitcoin going up but it Comes back into alignment around here on The 16th go back to the US dollar there Is our 16th so the rejection there the US dollar continues up Bitcoin pauses And then goes down so this was the only Tricky part of that particular trade but
You can see the weakness start to creep Into the market again which is part of These other videos that we looked at on The channel now going back five weeks And uh again three weeks ago this was uh Four weeks ago and then this one here Was five weeks ago looking at how History is repeating on this Wyckoff Analysis paying for crypto investors if We don't pay attention to this and then Also they're exiting from the smart Money at these tops as they test the Tops this is a very common thing that Happens within Wyckoff analysis you see The smart money buy up test the peaks of The the the cycle then bring it back Down short term selling off looking for That bottom that's what we've had here Looking for that bottom Pushing it back up finding that supplies Started to come into the market again so We repeat the cycle push the price back Down to find out where the demand comes Back in we're looking for higher price Demand obviously on a more macro time Frame we want it above these levels here Of 18K that is going to set it up for The next stage of the Wyckoff analysis Before we get too far ahead back to the US dollar as we bring it out into a Longer term time frame here on the Weekly chart look at how crazy these Patterns repeat over the course of the Years and then in terms of the Cycles
Here so this is the downside that we're Looking at that we've been focused on Since the Bama since the top In 2022 to the downside as I'm looking At this being a longer term downside Where many other analysts are still in The hopes of a higher price on the US Dollar I could be wrong this thing could Go up further but for now this looks Like it may just be a bear Market rally As we've now broken through two key Swing bottom levels here if you're Interested in the swing chart again Swing indicator Link in the video Description this thing is an absolute Godsend when it comes to figuring out The trend of a market where it comes to Putting in your stop losses to stay safe In the market so that you actually get Out once you've made all these massive Gains and for entering markets when the Markets start to break out from early on In the trend you can see that it broke The tops continued to break tops it's an Absolute godsend when it comes to Trading now enough of my shill on this Absolute fantastic indicator Back to the analysis here we've been Waiting for a one to four week rally all The way from this top we only ended up Getting one weeks here and there this is Finally that four week period we've got Two weeks up one week down two weeks up Again because there was a lower move to
This bar here on the 13th of Feb like We've covered this has been around this Time of the topping pattern for BTC so We're stepping it out to a bigger time Frame here it looks like we're coming up To some resistance here this was a Previous top turned resistance turned More support turn resistance now Potentially could be resistance again Let's wait and see because we still have Some upside targets here around 107. Either way this is still bearish to me While we remain under the figure of 108 And this particular bar here I like the Look of it being under that 111. should It get extra strength on and we get a Lower top form at around these levels That is very very weak okay but Nonetheless we're at a one to four week Ratio a wonderful week move up the other Thing to look at here is how long we've Been down or how far we've been down Approximately 12 percent so let's go Back to the previous Cycles to the Downtrend pretty significant bear Markets when you consider the time Frames here from March 2020 to the Bottom here in December 2020 then that Final bottom around May so Approximately 17 18 months check out This first move we got 10.9 percent We've currently done 12.1 percent so 11 And 12 the market went sideways for
Approximately 14 bars you can see from This particular bar here where the Market just stopped take it to the low That's about nine bars so I'm Anticipating somewhere at the greater Extent for the US dollar which could be Some problems for the for Bitcoin as Well nine to uh 14 weeks right and then There was further downside of about six Percent let's take it back another step Going back to 2017. topped to the first Major move to the upside 12.3 percent it Went sideways again for this period if You take it from this bar to Approximately this bar there's 17 to the Top there's 19. take it to the bottom Here there's 14. so it had approximately Three months if you want to call it to The greater extent around four months of It deciding whether it needs to go down Again To the downside they're seven percent You can see the similarities starting to Come through here 11 12 7 6 11 and then Six twelve and then seven where are we Currently set we set it around 12. so We're now looking towards the time frame Here let's go back again back to these Levels of 2009 2010 2011. Now you probably can tell what's coming Up here but it's so fun to see it Actually happen yet again to the Downside 13 to the next downside 6.7
Call it seven percent The next move down 14.7 and then you had Another move here around 5.6 but of Course take it all the way to the bottom There was a 10.7 so it's had in the past Pretty significant downside then a bit Of a pause and then another downside Which is less than the first downside Not only was going to happen exactly the Same these are some of the areas that We've looked at over the significant Bear markets over the course of the last 13 14 years since the GFC topped okay so Within this particular cycle if that Happens again we could expect the market To stay up and around these levels for The next several weeks before we get Another move to the downside which would Then take out that level at around 102. I spent a longer time on the US dollar That is the possibility of what's coming Next That could put some more ease onto Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies Which then leads me to the Wyckoff Analysis that we have for today so the Big thing that a lot of people were Focused on was this particular area for Bitcoin being a phase B so where we Currently sit Could be interphase B now I'm not always 100 right but I'm just going to go off What my analysis looks like at this Point and I think we could be in more of
A phase D type situation which may be a Little more extended the problem uh that People were asking was it could be a Schematic one phase B where we would Then see a lower price the reason I Think this is coming up is that the Bears are really focused on hoping for a Lower price if it happened sure I would Be wrong I could get lower priced Bitcoin I'm not sure if that's going to Be the scenario here because of how the Chart is currently setting up and what I Mean by that is where we currently sit For phase D and looking at the schematic Of schematic 2 it doesn't say that we Have to go below phase B schematic one Looks like that so it could be a Possibility I'm not going to rule it out Completely but what it says in terms of The phase B and phase D in particular Here for phase d The last point of Supply in the phase Are generally X and places to initiate Or add to profitable position so don't Let those go by the wayside if we do get Some lower prices but during phase D the Price will move at least to the top of The trading range At least to the top of the trading range And that is 25 200 at least to the top Top of the trading range so far that is 25 200. we've also broken through some Gan Monthly swing tops which we've looked at
In previous videos so if you are finding Value from the content make sure you do Like and subscribe I know some of the Titles can be quite interesting and fun But that is part of the game here enjoy The content for what it is and let's Continue to look forward to what might Occur with the Wyckoff schematic looking At a potential move through schematic 2 With last points of Supply coming into The market here in December you can see It potentially here maybe that was also A last point of Supply but maybe phase C Was happening in December and then we Had the big run out which happens here Another last point of supplier and then We get a sign of strength here as it Pushes towards the top of the trading Range which it did it just broke it by a Few dollars on some exchanges that is Where the subjectivity comes into the Game with the Wyckoff schematic because It doesn't have clearly defined rules Like an if then scenario like other Trading uh systematic trading plans have This is where it gets subjective so I'm Not trying to say that it can't not like It can definitely not be a phase B but I Think it's probably looking more likely A phase D in schematic 2 than a phase B In schematic one where people are still Waiting for a phase C into this Springtime where the price would go Lower than 15 400. I hope I've made that
Super clear in terms of where I think Things are at doesn't mean I'm going to Be 100 right but based on some of the Previous videos that were looked at even Recently especially the volume videos Looking at the macro stage here of how Much volume has been coming in at those Lows especially after such a significant Huge event like FTX I I'm leaning more towards a schematic 2 Scenario being in Phase D maybe it's Extended for a little bit longer and we Hold out at these last point of Supply The LPS's here For another several weeks maybe a few More months and we continue to test some Of these ranges now it doesn't rule out That we could drop to 18K or 20K or 21k But I think if we're looking at this Scenario which is what I'm working off Schematic 2 phase D it's probably far Less likely I would say unlikely that we Would drop underneath this 18K Zone and Drop back into where this spring and Last point of Supply was as you can see The volume drying up at that last point Of Supply which is characteristic of the Smart money buying up and moving to Higher prices which I guess looking at Titles is why I'm looking at this thing As being potentially that smart money Stealing from retail or stealing from Dumb money as the narrative always Shifts towards the bear while we're in
The bottom of a market while we are Continuing to consolidate and create a Bottoming pattern the Bears usually rain The headlines and are left to dry once The market does start to break out and If you don't believe me with what the Smart money is doing have a look at History what's happened last time this Is Peter Thiel he had billions of Dollars bought billions of dollars of Crypto at the bottoms eight years ago or Probably nine years ago now it was on Stage at the Bitcoin Miami Conference in 2022 around March or April of last year If you remember back and it is coming up Again in a few weeks time he was on Stage saying how great crypto and Bitcoin was meanwhile their fund is Selling out making billions of dollars In profit as the market was peeking out Again in that last Bitcoin top in March So around this period here was the Conference so that last basically lower Swing top great area to sell that's what They were doing Market collapses from That point this happens time and time Again with different types of funds with Different uh smart money in the game Institutions and we will probably hear About the potential buyers that they Were doing at these lower levels after The fact after the market starts to Break out they are not going to tell us That they are buying at these levels
This is a very typical pattern that Happens time and time again in the Markets as we like to say humans live at Charts don't learn to read a chart and On top of that learn to follow what the Market sentiment is doing I hope you Found some value from it share it with a Friend if you have we'll continue to Follow this up on the channel so make Sure you don't go anywhere subscribe I Like the content up plenty more coming Out in 2023 stick around for the videos Popping up on your left hand side and Links in the top of the video Description our free crypto and economic Report is coming out this week alright Guys thanks once again hope you had a Great weekend I'll see you at the next One until then peace out
