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U.S stock markets across the board Continue to trade within tight trading Ranges which is fueling a plethora of Uncertainty across the board from Institutions to retail investors today's Video Let's do an update of where we Currently see it within this major cycle That has shown over 12 times in recent History of the last 60 years to show a Positive result in this year on the back Of all the uncertainty through the Economy and Rising interest rates Expected throughout 2023 is this cycle Maintaining its Trend let's take a look At that in today's video make sure you Liked And subscribe to the channel it's Your home of macro cycle analysis across Stock markets crypto and the biggest of Them all real estate we cover all Financial markets as it's important to Understand what is happening throughout The world the economy real estate stocks To give us a broad holistic picture of What is going on in the market and if You want further updates check out the Link in the top of the video description Our free crypto and economic report Stick around to the end of the video as I've got an extra super special cycle to Share with you but first up let's start With what's going on out in the market And we're continuing to follow up on the Market sentiment in this case we're Looking at recession fears are down
Sharply now we've been following this For many months and there has been no Change to this indicator we've fallen From November 2022 and continue to fall As we currently sit here in March which The reading was from February this is a Survey covering 300 fund managers with Three quarters of a trillion dollars Under management so we're seeing the Fears of recession drop now it's still In the positive there's still many Saying that there is the likely chance Of a recession but those fears seem to Have peaked just like they did in April 2020 which was very close to the bottom Being the bottom in March 2020 and then Again in March 2009 which was the stock Market Bottom now in slight contrast to That view of recession the same surveys Are looking at this potential rally as Being a bear Market rally rather than a New bull market in terms of the Percentages we're still closer to 70 of The fund managers saying that this is a Bear Market rally not a bull market not A new bull market and what we've seen in The past though is when the figures get So far in the opposite meaning there are A lot of people believing it's a bear Market rally it tends to be the end now That is just what we see in the past Basically when the majority of people Are flipping on one side it's usually The end take the previous chart we just
Looked at this is March 2009 saying that This was the period that a recession was Most likely 80 percent were saying a Recession was most likely it was already Over the bottom was in markets are ready To move up April 2020 saying a recession Was most likely extreme fears bottom was In markets moving up could this be the Same sort of thing I happen to think so That's my opinion let's stick to the Objective data on the charts the search Term recession is also falling across The globe past five years worldwide the Peak times were in June 2022 which was The bottom before the current bottom in October and the next time was July Followed by October when the bottom Actually occurred or the current bottom That is and then again November and the Next peak time was in mid-January so the Search term is getting less searched Maybe people are figuring out what a Recession is maybe they're just getting Sick of hearing about it and this is the Only thing the media is able to continue To push our way nonetheless let's stick To some of the objective data on the Charts this is something I just posted On Twitter if you do want to follow us Twitter Instagram links are in the video Description make sure you don't get Scammed out there so use my official Links in that video description this is The French stock market don't go
Anywhere it's not about baguettes free And beautiful steaks this is hitting new All-time highs 2022 it hits some All-time highs here well this is the Previous old all-time high now we're Hitting new all-time highs again this Line down here the yellow line that was The previous all-time high of 2 000. so We're now hitting new all-time high Prices granted the argument could be Said that maybe this Market is going to Roll over and test some lower prices Maybe it comes all the way back down and Tests those lows that were set in September and October like in other Markets but nonetheless this is hitting New all-time highs it's not something That we expect to see throughout the World if the world is going into Recessions another interesting point to Note about the interest rate Rises is That within approximately 12 months they Will potentially come back to similar Levels where we currently are we're at Four and a half the market is pricing in Rises up to five and a half five and Three quarters but from March 2023 to March 2024 there is a likelihood that we May sit somewhere around four and three Quarters to five and a quarter percent Which is only two to three rate rises Above where we currently sit and the Following months could come right back To where we currently are all the way in
July of 2024 we could see the interest Rate all the way back to the current Levels potentially even lower now the Next fear point was the fed pivoting and This leading the market to an absolute Collapse now in yesterday's video I Pointed out that it has been seen many Times in history that a pivot doesn't Necessarily lead to a crash if you Didn't check it out I'll leave a link to It at the end of this video so stick Around for that but that's not the Surprise what we're looking at today is The presidential cycle and looking at The gains in the market throughout the Third year which is exactly the year That we are currently in some of these Gains are astronomical and unfortunately For many who are in positions of fear in The market they may miss out on this so Let's look at some of the indicators and Price ranges that we need to get to in Order for the market to turn even more Bullish first up it is the 4200 Point Level this is our key 50 level and for Many technical analysts out there they Are watching this 4200 level you can see Many times we've rejected off this and So this can be one of those first Indicators that you want to look out for If the market breaks Above This level That is going to be a good sign that we Are going to continue bullish in 2023 at Least maybe close out the year and
Continue up into 2024 but let's continue Just with the shorter term Outlook so Far within this cycle going from the Beginning of the year to now it can be Spliced up many different ways to get This data but one way that we look at it Is just those calendar years of the Third year of the cycle which is right Now because next year in 2024 is the Election year so so far we're up Approximately five percent in the year Already some of the other ways to splice Up this data is to is the year or Approximately 18 months from October in The year prior to the third year all the Way through to the election year in April and that is essentially that 12 Months plus a couple of months either Side seeing as the election is in November of the fourth year so we're Just going to use the calendar year in This case but nonetheless whichever way It has spliced up as this data shows Over many years some of the data going All the way back to the 1800s 1830 here The third year can be up somewhere on Average about 13 so we're currently Sitting about five we're getting close To halfway within those games this is Almost turning out to be way too bullish Because if we take it back to that October period that some of the data Looks at for these Cycles we're up 12 And a half percent knowing that the
Average is approximately 13 for the Pre-election year it's basically had all Of the gains for that year which means We'll probably sit somewhere around here Or continue to go up from that point Nonetheless I want to take the Bullishness out of it and just go with The calendar year itself showing that Around five percent so all we're going To do is go back and just check out the Previous pre-election years basically The third year in the presidential cycle Looking at in this case 2019 Market was Up 28 now pay particular attention here To the year prior to the pre-election Year meaning the second year and seeing As you can see that this one here was Down what some of the data also shows is That if the year prior to the Pre-election year so the prior prior Anyway the second year if it was down You're going to have better returns in That third year so we were down last Year it's possible that we should see Better returns this year better than the Average better than the 13 which some of The averages show you've got a 13 in This case you've also got a 10 and a Half percent in this case so somewhere In those double-digit returns going back To 2019 great returns 28 calendar year The Year prior at least those few months Leading into it was a dump and if we go Through it the entire year of 2018 it
Was a sideways year which led to a nice Boom here that followed that point there Going back to 2015 an interesting one Here we were pushing to new highs and Pushing up and up and up and up 2015 was Absolutely flat basically half a percent Down for the third year in the cycle so This starts to balance out those Averages one time it was Zero the other Time was 28 get a nice average there There's 14 but nonetheless the market Was going up prior to this flat year and Then the market continued to go up we've Seen it down year typically after those Down years we get a nice move to the Upside let's go back again 2011. Was basically flat almost dead on zero Here the year prior was down and then up Before the year started getting to new Fresh highs within that 2011. so that 2011 ended up being flat but nonetheless The market continued up from that point Now we go flat again so this is not Looking great if you're only just tuning In for the last 14 16 years or so but wait to see some Of the great data after a market has hit A bottom so we're looking here now at 2007. you can see 2006 was up this was Leading into a new high going back to a Double top with the previous top here This also was pretty much flat in that Year leading up to the pre-election now We have to go all the way back to 2003
Before the 2004 election this was almost Dead on what has happened in 2022 we had A down year in 2022 we had a nice bottom In around June and July we had another Beautiful bottom in October almost dead On to the day 20 years earlier and now We're focusing on we're looking forward To March 2023 so basically exactly 20 Years ago it had another bottom which Was a higher low looking at that entire Year of 2003 Market was up 22 for that Pre-election year let's go back again we Had 2 1000 leading into the 2000 Election 1999 there was the bottom very Similar case here in 1998. you can see a low came in in August we had that low in June and July Then we had another low here that was For 2022 but in case of 1998 there's August then we had another low in October we had another low in 2022 Market moves up from that point and then We see another good move to the upside Here in that pre-election year of nearly 20 percent of course election year was a Top Market fell over at that point which Is really interesting to note for the Special cycle information I want to Share with you after we go through these Cycles themselves Going back here 1995 we're up 34 for That year after a flat year the prior Year go back to 1991. we had another Nice up year after basically a flat time
Through 1980 and 1990 followed by a dip Into you guessed the month October got a Nice higher low forming here in January Which so far has been a pretty Reasonable low in 2023 Market runs up From that point in 1991. let's go back To the Black Monday dump For the stock market this is 1987 very Severe time very severe crash the market Was flat throughout that year if you go From the January to the December date it Was flat after such a spectacular dump It still ended flat this was an Extremely scary time probably similar to The covid pandemic crash because it was So fast so quick and so far down yet the Market remained flat when you just look At it from calendar year to calendar Year in that pre-election year Going back to 1983 because the election Was in 1984. we had an up year 17 And prior to that in 1982 which was 40 Years prior to 2022 we had some nice Dumps here into August some higher lows Into October and then the market started To move away for that rest of the year So nice cycle analysis there 1979 leading into 1980 another positive Time to the upside another positive move There you can see some lows came in in 1978 in October and November and again In December so some pretty good times For lows to be forming in the market Some severe moves to the downside and
The market was up 10.8 percent Let's go back again 1975. look at 74. it had a low in October you can see the late September But this is a weekly chart Another low look at again in December Another low similar to what we've Currently seen And the market heading up 28 in that Case after a pretty severe sell-off from Around 120 points uh down here I believe It was into the 60 point area so a 50 Drop there Market moved up pretty Quickly timing of those lows pretty uh Similar to what we've seen in 2022 1971 We go back again we had about an 11 move After the market dumped into 1970 you Can see here was a May June lows again There's July there's August you've got November lows and then the market moves From that point back again 1967. we have lows in October it's Almost an exact repeat over and over Again there's August you know we had the Lows in June July next low came in October next low here in Decembers and Then the market moves away for 20 that Following year let's go back again we Look back here 1963 this is a 62 dump you can see it Dumped into June similar to what Happened in 2022 we had to dump into June so a 60-year cycle The next dump can you believe it
Happened in October We had a dump into October of 2022 60-year cycle again 1963 so 60 years ago Market ran up Nearly 20 but of course I hear you at The other end times are different this Time is different things have changed we Don't have money printing we have fears Of recession we have fears of everything Else going on in the world these times Are much different we had inflation the Interest rate Rises etc etc you can't Compare everything to the past that has Been said throughout history so rather Than me give you more of my opinion just Take the data for what it is what we Have looked at here over 60 years of Data throughout these markets with Pretty similar low points throughout the Previous year of 2022 you can see here We had those dumps into May dump into June another little low here in July Followed by peak in August a dump into October some higher lows so far Unconfirmed but so far we've got a Higher low here in December And now we wait to see what happens Whether we can get past 4 200 points This is just the data speaking it's not My opinion I've sprinkled tiny bits of Opinion throughout and I give you plenty Of that over on on Twitter but just Keeping to the data It is basically saying that we should
Rhyme with history there's a fair amount Of research done for these videos so if You do want to support the channel hit That like button subscribe Bell Notification icon and of course top of The video description there is more free Content here crypto and economic reports Across crypto stock markets and real Estate our Tia members get a first-hand Look at how this data comes together and How you can use it for your own Portfolios so if you want to get Involved in that link is in the top of The video description as well now for The surprise cycle which I'll do more on In future videos but just to give you an Understanding of whether we could be Experiencing a flat year potentially a Dump back to the Flat Point like we've Seen throughout 2007 2011 2015 or maybe We're experiencing the 2019 pumps just Like all of the previous years this Cycle is for our Jewish friends it's the Schmitter it's a very interesting cycle To have a look at it's basically the Seventh year and the seventh year was Last year in 2022 so you can see we had A pretty solid down year and throughout History if you go back and do the Lessons yourself which I'll do in a Future video so up to you whether you Want to do it for yourself or wait for Me to do it you can see that in those Years not 100 of the time but in many of
Those occasions it was a good time to Not be in the market if you were Long-term investing 2022 was one of Those years granted the cycle does begin From the previous year in September Through to the sabbatical year in September again so September to September 2021 to 2022 looking at 2022 Basically September here to September Which was almost the exact low was a Great time to be out of the market if You're a long only investor seven years Earlier 2015 flat year seven years earlier from 2015 is 2008. absolute dumpage Carnage On the market all the way through to October so basically you could wait for That bottom get back into the market After the sabbatical year taking that Year off seven years earlier from 2008 We go to 2001. look at that sabbatical Year absolutely destroyed now before you Think there's some conspiracy theories Going on here and the Jews all control The markets don't worry too much it's Not every single year 100 but this tends To happen so it's a very interesting Cycle to pay attention to if you want to Do more research on it go and check out Schmitzer learn about it and apply it to The charts for your own personal trading Accounts now I can go down a ton of These rabbit holes there is so much Interesting stuff to find out about the
Markets but I'll do that in a future Video so make sure you have liked Subscribe to the channel check out the Links in the top of the video Description for our free crypto and Economic report or join us as a TIA Premium member links in the description I'll see you guys at the next video a Fantastic day till then peace out
