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Could the retail investor be right this Time and we do experience a recession it Seems that the smart money has been Buying up the lows every time the stock Markets have been hitting new lows the Retail Vesta is out of the market and The smart money is buying these lows as We can see in the volume but could this Be the start of a major decline now if You are a regular viewer thank you very Much guys hitting that like and Subscribing but if you're not make sure You do hit that subscribe button because This is the place that you're going to Get your macro cycle analysis and an Alternative view even if you don't agree With it this is an alternative view to What the masses are talking about now Yes they're a banking crisis is going on There are layoffs across the board Prices are going up there's inflation There's a lot of bad out there but the Markets which is what we trade and how We make our money continue to go up and This has been the case for six months Now so in today's video I want to have a Look at where does that sentiment lie What is going on with these major news Headlines for today with major layoffs That continue to pile up and exactly how Bad that is today compared to what we Have seen in the past all right guys Like And subscribe quick shout out to Channel sponsors swiftx there is a
Doubling of the free Bitcoin there this Is the exchange that I use in Australia And for everyone out there ledgers are Not on special but there is a big Discount for buying them at the moment They're 30 bucks in BTC and 20 bucks if You get The Ledger Nanos essentially 12 To 15 off check out the link in the Video description all right enough of The shields let's start with the macro Cycle here just so we get an idea of Where we're positioned at the moment now I'm talking about smart money destroying The market right now they're basically Destroying it for the retail investor What typically happens at the peak Retail gets in and you can start to see How this happens now there is a plethora Of bad news out there every day day There is something new and it keeps the Retail investor out of the market and There's plenty of smart money or big Accounts that are still out of the Market that believe the market needs to Collapse that will come that will Definitely come and it will be Destructive it'll be extremely severe I Will be flipping bearish at that point But of course we're here for the macro Cycle what we saw in 2020 probably won't Compare to what we see after 2026 it is Going to be severe so I'll get on to the Bandwagon of the macro Bears later but For now this is what we are going
Through at the moment the markets are Increasing there is no denying denying That the bottoms continue to get higher S P 500 NASDAQ World Markets Commodities Bitcoin if you want to throw it in there Too this is happening but everyone Believes we need to crash from this Point then once they all flip we get Into this era of craziness this is what Is to come probably next year into 2020 5 2026 okay so this is what we are Looking for next I'm going to talk about Exactly how we get there from this point Especially with all of the news that is Going on at the moment then of course I'll show you that objectively on on the Charts era of easy money people believe That this has come and gone this is just Getting prepared right now especially With the banks they're going to be Giving out a lot more money in the form Of easy credit which fuels real estate So this first is the tech layoffs this Is what is keeping a lot of people out Of the market you can see we have the Largest layers of 2023 all these sorts Of terms really make for big headlines So the idea here is that we're cutting Through the noise of the news and I'm Explaining how I've viewed the market Over the last 17 years coming through The steps that maybe you're going Through at the moment where you get Fearful of these types of news and it
Has to be true the numbers are there it Tells me 15 employees are laid off 15 15 14 but then when we did that a little Bit deeper you can see that the numbers Aren't really that big of a deal when we Have these layoffs say in the case of Salesforce here 10 of the employees have Just been laid off these are the layoffs So far for 2023 giving you some Definitive timelines there as a sales Force we can see that it was 950 people Now I'm not having a go at people losing Their jobs I'm having a go at the data Itself and what we need to do as Investors is dig through the data and Just realize that 10 sounds like a mega Amount and it plays a little mind flip Game with you where you see twenty seven Thousand twelve thousand ten thousand Ten thousand thirty two hundred and then It turns off from the actual numbers and Goes to a percentage so it goes to 10 And you kind of think wow if it's 10 Here that's a lot of people losing their Jobs and we go across to the actual Article it's 950 950 in the course of The entire population and I did that Number it was two point zero zero zero Zero zero zero two percent of the Population so there are still people Losing their jobs not having to go at That people say well this is just the Beginning there's more to come I'm here to tell you it is nonsense and
I'm giving some quite definitive answers Here I get that but I want to take a Look back this is my first instinct is To go back to the tech boom and bust in 2001 and they had millions of people Losing their jobs there were less people In the uh the population of the US and There were millions of people losing Their jobs in 2000 2001 2002 into that Tech bust now we'd only see I say only But there's still a few hundred thousand So it's A bit more than 10 of what it was back Then 22 years ago so let's keep this Into perspective and realize that their Headlines are there to fool the masses Most of the time which is exactly how The smart money destroys Us in the Markets they destroy the markets as this Continues up and then the dumb money the Retail investors all pile back in when They realize that it's not as they once Thought back when those lows came in They have data on those lows and we've Hit those lows on the dot for the last 73 years we'll have a look at that in Just a sec so this is basically trying To explain how we work through the news Headlines and the numbers and the data And the biggest names out there are Giving us this nonsense anyway that's my Little rant there as I dig deeper into The numbers and have a look at the History there okay so on to the market
Sentiment and we're starting to see Optimism Creeping its way back in so we have Pessimism in green and optimism in red Why I don't know I would flip the colors But I'm not the one creating this chart Here optimism in the US is at 60. so It's just above neutral here Australia 61. uh you've got Malaysia at 58 and Trying to find Singapore in there it was About 59 as well there it is right there So Singapore Western developed countries Canada 59 so we're on the optimism side More so than the pessimism side Spain For some reason and Portugal the way up There in their optimism same deal with The UK as well and we don't want to Leave New Zealand out there there it is Right there at 72. so the optimism is Starting to creep in and I suspect this Will get more and more as we reach the Peak based on this particular cycle as Well so we're well and truly on track For this at the moment now another huge Thing here is the buy the flipping dip Reactions through the first quarter of The Year these have been some of the Best times in history to be buying the Dip so the s p is enjoying one of the Best by the flipping dip you can insert Your own f word there reactions in 2023. Basically Market drops by the dip and Then they're expecting a point three two Percent return the following day just
Looking at those numbers because we have Had so many days up in this first Quarter of 2023. this is just the data Not my opinion this is how they have Been winning and Retail has been losing Listening to this sorts of jargon around How bearish things seem so this is a Pretty interesting chart here going all The way back to the 1920s now the 1930s Weren't such a great time but this has Been a pretty good opportunity for this First quarter and we've covered many Other things on the channel like the Pre-election year for the presidential Cycle we're in year three all so Expecting higher prices especially after 2022 was a down year We're looking for higher prices in 2023 Just based on the data smart money dumb Money confidence is dead on even at the Moment but what we've seen in the past Is when dumb money which is this brown Reddish line here blue is the Smart Money when that is in a pessimistic State It's typically the bottoms bottoms you Can see here the brownish red again look At it below the level here of 0.3 all of The bottoms through October you've got Bottoms here again around this area of December bottoms again around March so On and so forth then you've got the Smart money basically buying up these Lows they are destroying retail and
They're destroying dumb money as well Because essentially dumb Money Follows These sorts of headlines smart money Does what they can when they look at Their own data and their analysis and Continue to buy up these dips Based on the buy the flip and dip Reactions as well we can see here that It's been a fantastic opportunities just Based on the data to get into the market During the first quarter of 2023. now I Take you to the lows this thing is Incredible since 1950 The lows in the market have formed 50 of The time in October now you've probably Remember me talking about the low Probably being in for this cycle in October of 2022. before I go a little Bit further with that Got it in there Smash Up the like And Subscribe to the channel you're not Getting this macro analysis anywhere Else on the internet because everyone is Still in that fearful State and before You know it they'll start to flip and That'll be the end of the cycle here for Those last couple of years there'll be Some great gains to be made don't get me Wrong there's plenty of time to do that But we are looking at the lows being in While the market is very very bearish Being Greedy when others are extremely Fearful so this percentage of the market Lows by month since 1950 73 years ago 50
Of the time the low came in in October How incredible that we have seen another Low in October hold your horses Jason The low's not in yet we can still crash Further maybe maybe we can but for now I Like those odds I like 50 of the time in 73 years the low was formed in October Now 17 of the time I think was 16.6 but Nonetheless 17 of the time the low is Formed in March well guess what we we Had another extremely significant low in March it wasn't the cycle low but it was An extreme low this was the banking Collapse and we are now several Percentage points above that point there This was the collapse that should have Taken the market out just like the Collapse that should have taken the Market out in October and June and all The way down with the fear of war in Russia and Ukraine in February and the Interest rate Rises and you name it just Keep adding it to the list there's so Much fear that continues to stack up yet The markets are where they are nearly 4 100 points so There's your 50 chance of getting a low Bam we got it there's a 17 chance of Getting the the bear Market low well We've got a higher low very very Significant higher low in March then December comes around eight percent Chance in December August June and may What would you flip and know may
Significant low June significant low August didn't get one December significant low December June May March October every Time the friggin bear Market lows is in Those months I don't know how much more We need to assess this it's just time And time again this thing happening now If we were to get another low let's just Go back to this chart here we've covered March maybe that happens around May or June and then you'll have the Bears Talking about another significant low to Come later in this year you know my Position I don't think that is going to Happen I'm not going to say I'm 100 sure Because of course I don't control the Markets I just base my analysis and how I invest on the data and reading through The fear in the news headlines So crazy that we saw those here we had a June low a May low and October low a December low and a March low and the Only hit we didn't get was one in August But that's absolutely wild to see the Data in 73 years turn out to have lows In each of those months and 50 of the Time it's in October and then March has The next highest percentage and this Time March wasn't the next highest low December was but it was a very Significant low more of a significant Low than December was based on the fear In the market around that point in time
So where does this leave Bitcoin right Now well it leaves it at twenty eight Thousand dollars and it looks like we Are consolidating at higher and higher Levels now this is short term okay it's Just the daily chart but we're starting To stack up a little bit higher here my Alerts are set underneath the Significant swing lows here 26 600 I think is that low 26 500 and then The swing top 29 200. so while we remain In this trading range there's really not Much to be said the only thing we're Gonna we're doing next is just having a Look at where is the support forming is It going to hold and are we stepping up That support on the shorter term time Frames to give us a bit of a leap Eventually as we try to crack 29k Nonetheless the downside is not too much Risk there as I pointed out yesterday About eight percent and to the upside we Have a little bit more to go should we Get towards those next resistance levels In that low to mid 30 000 range so BTC Looking pretty stable at the moment even If we get a breakdown just to clear out Some of those stops and then hopefully Springboard away to the upside of course We'll continue to cover up on this I'm Still Blown Away by the data that Continues to come out yet where we focus On where we focus our attention over Here rather than on the data I hope you
Guys enjoyed that and found a lot of Value from it if you did Smash up that Like let me know in the comment section And share this with a friend they don't Want to hear this at the moment Eventually they'll thank you for it in The future as my friends have done as we Look towards the lows being in in the Market not a guarantee but we have to Prepare for both sides of the market Thanks again guys have a fantastic day Out there and don't forget our Channel Sponsors swiftx and Ledger some great Value specials going on over there see You at the next one till then peace out
