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Welcome back to the channel guys as you Can see I got a special guest on the Other end and then for gareth's channel I guess I'm the special guest at that That's right But it's going to be a great discussion Because we are on both ends extreme ends Of the spectrum one might say at this Stage in the market where are you Sitting at this point Gareth yeah so First off this is great to kind of have A an open discussion and I love these Type of things where you know you have Your views I have my views and I think The audience gets to kind of take it all In and then make up their minds and I Think that's always the best way so so For me at least I'm in the camp where You know we've we've seen the Federal Reserve hike rates so aggressively and Still it looks like they're expected to Hike in May so so for me I'm in the camp That at some point this does impact the Global economy and the domestic economy Economy and I do see us slipping into a Recession in the second half of 2023. so So that's really where I'm at I think That the markets right now if you look At valuations on stocks the S P 500 it's It's at a relatively high level where The markets are not anticipating that so To me it puts me down position where if It doesn't happen valuations are Probably where they are already and if
It does happen then valuations need to Come in I know you're kind of on the Opposite Spectrum so I'd love to hear Your angle on this Yeah and I wanted just to say you know Hello to your audience and to say thank You to jumping on because I guess with The market continuing up at this point From November bears are sort of looking Like a little bit foolish at this point But you're here so I really appreciate Having that discussion especially with Guys who are they're kind of getting Backed into a corner at this point in Time whereas you think later on in the Year but I guess from my end just Looking at the the technicals what I'm Seeing is the lows have been in through June and October and we base a lot of Our analysis of timing so cycles and Timing and of course then we go to the The macro picture of the economy and the Real estate so we look at a macro Economic uh economic and real estate Cycle which lasts approximately 18 to 20 Years and we're in the stage now where We're getting that last final leg up Which will impact the stocks it'll Impact real estate going up it'll impact Cryptos going up but we're in that last Stage so I think we're both Is similar where we expect something Major to collapse but I think in terms Of the timing that's the only thing that
We differ in like I expect a big Recession but I don't see that coming Till After 2026 which you're thinking Somewhere in 2023 so I think we have This last leg up where everything gets Absolutely ballistic and then we have This big catastrophic downturn and and This is just my curiosity but then What's what's the Catalyst for that next Move up right where we go into 2026 Because are you thinking that the Federal Reserve then is going to start Printing money again by the end of this Year let's say or are they going to be Lowering interest rates or or how do we Get there considering how we've gotten To where we are now Yeah obviously a good question because That's that's kind of like well how is That actually happening and sorry about My eye it's been too much I've been in The surf too much so the the salt water Is it looks like I've got pink eye or Something anything Oh good Um how do we get there we're starting to See signs of us getting there because I Guess when we look back to the macro Picture Would you agree that s p has to go up in Order for Bitcoin and cryptos to go up And if you don't that's okay too I do in general it's I mean even though
We've seen decoupling every once in a While right like the banking crisis for The most part it's still a risk asset Correct yeah so I do agree with that So that's kind of where we look back Next so I have to sort of just mention That because then for us in terms of the Macro cycle real estate is what Underpins the entire economy like that's Where the most money is trillions and Trillions of dollars compared to the Stock market so if real estate is Holding up The rest of the markets will eventually Hold up yeah we'll go through Cycles Like Bitcoin you know boom in a bust but It's getting higher lows so real estate Is still holding up broadly speaking Definitely seeing it go up at the moment Ever so slightly in Australia and some Areas of the US again after everyone was Expecting a collapse So how do we get there well the banks And the government are starting to Put you know bring more credit into the System we saw that just with that bit of Printing I know everyone's going to Point to that 300 billion and the 90 Billion of course there's China printing But the thing that we're seeing now and It just happened in the this is what We've been pointing out for a couple of Years now the mortgages are getting Longer did you see that recently in the
US where they went to a 40-year mortgage You UK went to a 50-year China is Allowing up to 80 years so not an ADM Orchestra you can get a mortgage until You're 80. so you know what happens There is like once you've spread out the Cost of a property it makes it cheaper Right so then you start to get this Flurry of people moving in so it's not Necessarily that we need to see the Government printing more money they'll Start to ease the regulations that they Put in from the GFC make banking easier Again because they need the market to go Up in order to keep everyone happy Eventually it does collapse so I agree With you on that it has to collapse but I think we have this one last push like A final pump into an altcoin season Except because it's real estate these Things take years and everyone's going To be scrambling to get on board and They're all going to freak out and get Into the peak they're going to get into Real estate at the wrong time at the Peak which happens every single cycle so Yeah that's kind of where we're at What's interesting at least from my Perspective and this is again I love This fact that we differ in these ways Is that I was I was thinking about real Estate earlier today and I'm kind of Saying to myself okay what's how do you Come up with a bull case for Real Estate
Because if the economy stays healthy Then interest rates in theory are Probably going to have to stay higher For longer which makes it more expensive To to buy a house so now granted you're Talking about 40-year mortgages 80 year I mean if you do spread out the costs Like that it does bring the cost down or The monthly payment but then on the Other side I was thinking okay well if The economy weakens interest rates start Coming down we've even seen that here in The U.S the the 30 year has come in Because expectations are for a weaker Economy but then if you have a weaker Economy people are losing their jobs There's not as much job security and so People would be a little bit more Hesitant to buy homes even with lower Interest rates so so I was really you Know again I didn't really contemplate The the longer 40-year or 80 year type Mortgages but for me it was I was having Such a hard time figuring out how real Estate starts to really gain and go up Again you know at least in the near term Exactly and it doesn't it probably won't Last long enough like it might just be That few years because they're giving it Everything that they've got they're in a Presidential election year next year This is the pre-presidential election Year so they need to be seeing that Everything is stable they want to get
Back into power and all that sort of Stuff and then it doesn't really have That much longer to go it is real estate Remember we're sort of thinking the s p Where can go up and then it can Just dump and cryptos could dump the Next day but real estate you know these Things take time to play out exactly so And I'm glad that you said like we're Starting to see a few things on the Similar levels because I feel like a Broken record on Twitter like explaining This over and over again and everyone's Like real estate has to collapse it's Going to collapse it's like you've been In the market long enough yeah uh a low Never forms on bad news oh sorry Yeah a low forms has to form on bad news I should say yeah a top never forms on Bad news it always forms on good news Good news so that's right the majority Of people are saying that we've got to Go into a recession and things are going To collapse and it's like this is like The the most I've ever heard anyone talk About a recession yet the prices have Continued to go up from June and October On the S P yeah yeah and and I mean yeah From from so the one thing about my kind Of recession call and this is where I do Differ with other Bears is like you have The Peter shifts of the world calling For like Mega depressions and this and That they call it every year don't they
Right that's yeah but for me it's it's Not I don't really see it being a Recession that is very deep it's more Like kind of this dragging out slower Economy that that it doesn't it's not a Collapse economy it's like a small Recession but it just lasts for a really Long time due to the fact that I see I See inch uh I see inflation staying Slightly elevated and not allowing the FED to come to the rescue so so it's Kind of a weird scenario where I do Actually see like so you have the 100 Year cycle I don't know you I don't know How into Cycles you are but like with Coven you had you had you had obviously The Spanish Flu basically it was almost A perfect 100 year cycle and then late In the 20s now you're coming into the Great Depression cycle as well and so I Think that that's where you really get The big issues of the bigger collapse Like really where we could be in in Store for a depression type scenario but Yeah at least my my recession is is more Of a it's more of like one that kind of Puts you to sleep it's not like you Don't have 20 unemployment or 15 or 10 Percent Unemployment and things just are kind of Crappy but they're not horrible you know Maybe that's for like the everyday Person right but prices continue to go Up so I sort of think about it in terms
Of what are we trading and how do we Make money we don't make money off is There a recession or not is one of the Headlines saying we make money is the Market going up or down are we shorting Or belonging right and so I see the Markets go up but yeah you know your Scenario could definitely be true where It's just like it's not good for Everyday people because prices of things Are still elevated that sort of stuff Right but there's real estate going up At the moment it definitely is is Bitcoin going up or yeah it's nearly 100 Up is yeah as stock market up from October yeah so um That that's that's an interesting point You know it doesn't have to be like the The Roaring 20s where everyone was you Know it's like great times this could be Like a shitty Roaring Twenties right the Prices keep going up right yeah and That's kind of like what I'm envisioning Is more like a scenario where where you Have this kind of It's almost like the the patience on Life support so the it's not the Patient's not dead yet right dead would Be depression but the patient's being Kept alive but it's not really a good It's not a healthy condition and so That's kind of where I'm coming from Where it's just like it's like okay We're alive but we're not really living
A good life here it just kind of is what It is and then eventually that next Phase brings us to kind of the the Horrible part but but yeah it's Interesting that's a fantastic analogy No I loved it because I I had that in my Head uh three like two mornings ago at Like three a.m that exact analogy I went To write it out when I woke up and I'm Like what was the freaking analogy So yeah it's it's literally like keeping Someone on life support your doctor is Saying you've got six months to live I'm The doctor and I'm saying you've got Three years to live that's basically the Difference here yeah that's right that's Right so I got a question for you like So how long how long have you been Trading like you know you know what's Your what's your history I know your Surfer so that's awesome so you like Surf by market close trade by market Open or what so I started as a Short-term trading on stocks Commodities When I started out in late 2010 so what Are we at coming up to 13 years I I did That for a bit I went into real estate So I was developing investing you know Getting investors that sort of stuff Nothing's huge just sort of like small Lots three to five so you know knock Downs and put up three uh what do you Call them two condos we call them like Townhouses
Um You know did that for a bit to get an Idea of what happens in the market and That's what really got me interested Especially throughout that whole period From uh When I bought my first property was Around 2006 so I'm 37 now I was 20 at The time and when I was getting into the Real estate I was trying to figure out Well everyone tells you when to buy but How do you know when to sell and that's What got me into cycles and so I started Following a real estate cycle from 2012 And I've seen it play out throughout This period Through that time I was also trading and Real estate I just knew I was in Investing it's long story short I came Back to trading in 2016. got back into Commodities with my brother and realized We didn't work together that well when It was in Commodities but 2017 I got Into crypto early 2017 and that's where The training came back did short-term Stuff and now from 2018 I realized I Don't have to be that short-term to make Those bigger gains and so I've developed More of a strategy that's based on daily Weekly monthly depending on which stage Of the cycle we're in you go daily when It's the you know everything's pumping Right now it doesn't need to be daily For me for my strategy you know weekly
To monthly so that's where that's where I'm at now I I believe you're more into The short term you in and out yeah more On the swing trade day trade side so Swing trade holding for a few days to a Few weeks or so and then and then I look At the macro view just because it was Fascinating and kind of gets me ready to Make different plays at certain times But I really try to exercise that Discipline and patience because again Like like you're talking about with the Recession right I mean if it doesn't Come you don't want to start Investing For A recession if it's actually not Going to come for multiple years you're Going to miss out on a lot of gains in The opposite direction so so yeah for me It's much more short term Um where I'm just trying to kind of hop In and I'm hopping out for me I've kind Of gotten to that point where it's Almost impossible for me to be a Long-term investor because there's too Many cycles of up and down movement Where like you know it's it's a good Example would be Bitcoin it's like Bitcoins at 69 000 you might be a hodler But if you know it's going to collapse And I you know I made that call for that It was going to go to 20. why wouldn't You exit at 69 and just re-buy at 20 and Save yourself a massive amount of of Loss in that scenario so so yeah it's uh
It's it's a pretty good call from last Year right yeah for sure so so Interesting man so Um so you you trade like when you're Trading do you trade more the s p then Or do you do individual stocks do you Trade U.S stocks because you're in Australia so obviously that could be a Little bit of a tricky thing unless You're working all night Definitely not working all night I Primarily just trade Bitcoin and then Cryptos in the old seasons and for the s P i focus on that a lot because it's Part of the macro picture so s p and Then a few other charts that I'll look At you know home builders and the vix And those sort of things just to give me That broad overview and then also just a Real estate cycle but the money is made In crypto and then what I do is take That money and go and buy real estate so You know this stage uh yeah I've got a Property going unconditional next week I Think that's what you guys call it over There when you get to that point yeah And you can't you can't go back Unconditional yeah yeah you're basically Signing on the dotted line there that's It it's it's all over you just got to Wait it out for their owner to get out Then so you know I've got another one Doing that next week because that's the Stage that I see us going through to
Um So yeah that's that's basically what I Do money comes from crypto into property I just try and keep it that simple and Then just focus on the charts and get on With the you know the education and the The YouTube stuff nice nice and like you Know A lot of people and this is something I Have my own views on but the dollar Right we've you know so many people will Tell you the dollar is over it's the Great demise of the dollar and from my Perspective I agree that eventually the Dollar will not be the reserve currency But I always find that people make make It out like it's happening tomorrow and This is really something that's a much Much longer thing where it's almost Untradable in that respect and that you Know you can't invest today for the Dollar to not be the reserve currency Tomorrow it's it because it's just way Too long of a trade I mean you're going To be sitting in it for potentially Years what are your thoughts on like That I'll just put up the dollar chart while We're talking about it there I I don't Think the dollar is going anywhere fast At this point we have well my belief is That the dollar is going down in value But that doesn't mean it's going to be Replaced by the Chinese one or Russian
Ruble or whatever else they come up with For now it's still the you know the Major world Reserve currency but you Know like that's what we just heard over The last few weeks where it's like a US The US dollar is not being used for Trade in France for what was it trade With uh Africa and then Russia's not Using it to pay for whatever they buy Off China and China's not using it to Pay for things with with uh Africa you Know like it's just been this big whole Balloon of fear on the US dollar and it Was exactly the same thing six months Ago remember the September top it was um Everyone piling to the US dollar the Euro was collapsing the pound was going Down they were going to parity and Everyone was just saying US dollar is The next greatest thing it was you know Everything is coming back to it but it's Just cycles and we're seeing a lot of Fear at the moment which is why I think Maybe we're seeing this bottom forming At the moment we've got this slightly Higher low of course if uh 100.8 taken Out then yeah we'll have further Downside that's pretty straightforward But with that extra fear maybe we're Just going to get another slight move to The upside you can see we've got Resistance at 105 and a half is that That's what you're thinking at the Moment yeah so I agree with you in that
Respect is that the dollar is definitely Hugging in the end what I have here and I don't know if you can pop up my chart Here But basically much like you so you have The higher low you also have this longer Term trend line right through here and We've just been kind of hammering on it So as of now anyways that's that's your Support level now what will be Interesting is is to watch if we start Trading up into this level do we break Above it or does it stall and eventually Break to the downside my guess is Eventually it'll break to the downside But I agree with you that short term There's it's very decent odds that we'll Have a push up way too much bearish Sentiment on the dollar just like in Reverse you have way too much for me at Least way too much bullish sentiment Right now on bitcoin doesn't mean that Bitcoin isn't going to go eventually Higher but the Euphoria out there is Definitely a red flashing light for me Yeah like it like the trend is coming to An end eventually there's just it's like Will it go from 30 and a half to 35 Quickly it will be 30 and a half to 32 Like right it could be a big a big move But it's been up for five months yeah Absolutely you've got to think about Attitude and actually I mean here I'm Gonna get rid of some of these trend
Lines because it's a little confusing Here for people but but one of the Things I'm watching very carefully is You basically have Bitcoin now just Number one piercing the even numbers so I I'm not sure in trading how much you Pay attention to even numbers but I Found in trading that number one the Retail investor puts stops at even Numbers so so number one generally those Stops will get taken out because the the Algos will pierce them which will then Take out the short stop and and Ultimately it gets Max Euphoria right When you see all of a sudden a three Instead of a two in front of Bitcoin 20 Thousands to Thirty it just creates that Like oh I gotta get in now because here Goes the run and those usually denote Short-term tops but then also what I Think is fascinating on bitcoin is that You have so much of so much former Trading areas right in this 30 000 level Right so if we look at the bull market From 2021 when it dumped out this was The low so psychologically and you can See right over here too before it broke Down that was a huge huge level so it Makes sense that right around thirty Thousand this is going to be a major Psychological level for Bitcoin to try To get through doesn't mean it can't Pierce it like you said I mean it's Already pierced thirty thousand but it
For me this is the big level to test Whether or not can it get above this Level and then can it hold Above This Level so yeah it's interesting really Interesting would you say that's one of Your invalidation points to the downside Do you still think 15 and a half will be Broken Yeah so that this is my my key level so For me if it were to get above this area Here let's say 30 and a half 30 500 is Kind of that line in the sand down Sloping line flat line so if we were to Stay above this for a certain amount of Days and really start establishing it as A support level then I think you have to Say that the low is is probably it right Based on that now if we gets rejected Here and we start breaking some of these Technical supports then I do think that Things could get nasty very very quickly Especially if we see the stock market Take a big leg down the risk off trade Start to come back in so so to me this Is a huge level for me psychologically Like there's got to be so much I mean Just think about this like think about The people that bought Bitcoin here and Then they thought they were just you Know gonna print money to a hundred Thousand uh to Beyond and then they came Back they're like okay I'm break even And all of a sudden they find themselves Back in so there's a lot of those people
Psychologically that'll say okay this is A level I'm back to even after being Down 50 let me exit the trade at this Point so it just creates a lot of Resistance Do you remember that from 2019 and we had that support at five Thousand eight hundred six thousand I Was in the camp too I thought if we're Gonna get some resistance there and the Thing just shot straight through to 8 000. I was like oh Yeah so obviously you know we're both Prepared for that but yeah like Logically speaking you would expect Something like that to could occur Absolutely absolutely so so are you in The camp that the lowest than in on Bitcoin already and that that you think Will get through this area or you're Thinking you'll also pull back but the Low is still in Yes I think the low is in we'll have a Pullback I just don't know where this Top is so wherever the top forms then I'll start to look at 20 to 50 to the Downside that's typically what it's done In the past but If it only gets to say 32 I doubt a 50 Pullback to 16 000. so I think it'll be A more shallow pullback or a trading Range like it did in uh 2015 2016 where It just sort of traded sideways broke Out traded sideways broke out traded
Sideways rather than 2019 where it's Sort of you know in this massive pump And then over the next six months went From 14 to seven yeah you know like it's Just going to depend where the top comes In but um I I do think the low is in Based on I do a lot with volume I don't Know if you focus on on volume at all Not as much so I love that you do So the volume For lows you can see here this was November that's the I'll put on candle So it makes it a bit fatter for everyone Extreme volume so I'm on coinbase we Know that coinbase had some pretty Significant volume in the last several Years and prior to that it wasn't one of The primary exchanges but Extreme volume At lows when the market couldn't push Any lower typically means that this the Low is in you can see we had the Capitulation and the price really didn't Go that much further from June this was The FTX collapse and that was the Celsius Voyager block fire collapse and Then the price pretty much on big volume Again broke back to the upside and took Out all of that fear from the last uh Six months so if we do get a pullback I Want to see where the high comes in First maybe in that mid 30s and then We'll have a look to somewhere in the High 20s to low 30s as a pullback range But I mean bottoms have just they always
Almost always at least in cryptocurrency Form on massive volume you can see the Cover crash and it starts to make sense When you think about it there's a lot of Trading going on you've got retail Getting extremely fearful FTX collapsed You know the biggest thing that we've Seen almost like a Black Swan event and For crypto at that point lots of people Selling lots of smart money buying up That's why the price came to a stopping Point you know like stopping volume and Then it turned around like it just Couldn't push any lower so I kind of I Take a lot of the mainstream narratives And the uh Market sentiment because Remember after FTX collapsed it was they Started targeting binance Finance had to Collapse crypto.com had to collapse Qcoin had to collapse uh they went after I forget now but they just basically go After everything and it happens every Single time and it wasn't it was only Four months later which svb collapsed in Silvergate collapsed that you see the News go after the next bank and the next Bank and the next bank and Bank of America is going to go down and JP Morgan's gonna go down it's like okay It's one month on it didn't happen so When I see that enough times it's like It just really starts to cement that That Bottom's probably in because They don't have any more fear left like
They The Narrative is run out and they They don't have any more ammo left to to Scare people Do you think that in 2000 and so in 2020 We had that flush that took us back to The lows on bitcoin but it but Technically that was the Black Swan Event of of covid right so so was that a Natural occurrence that we would see Every or in the next cycle or are you Thinking that that doesn't happen Well it's a Black Swan so No One Ever Knows and I the thing I hate at the Moment is that everyone just calls Everything a Black Swan it's like oh if This comes up or if that comes up it's Like When was the last it's always going to Be one then Exactly like the last Black Swan to Covert was When the fat finger in 2011 maybe yeah Yeah Slash crash yep I remember that so I Can't really think of any other black Swans that happened in the market You know prior to that so that was nine Years earlier there might be one you Guys can let us know but you know when You think of black swans they they Because it's so fresh in everyone's mind They're thinking well there has to be Another Black Swan and another one it's Like guys we possibly just saw FTX as a
Black Swan and you've got two two years So so one of my big questions would be Then and this is something I struggle With is is when you're dealing with Crypto and I I traded in the beginning Of my career through the.com bubble and I watched you know penny stocks go up Hundreds of percentage points is almost Daily just like Doge did just like shib Just like so many of these other ones so Like for me it's hard to imagine how we Could be at a end of the bear Market Cycle in crypto without a bigger washout Of these crap coins right of so many of These basically zero utility coins and So I mean that's something that I I Struggle with is where I'm like listen If the dot you know the mental cycle the Psychology of investors drove the dot Coms it drove the crypto markets and and You haven't seen that people are still Buying nfts people are still buying you Know these these crap coins expecting Them to go back up so how do you how do You come to terms with so many coins Being out there and maybe a new bull Market in crypto I saw a lot like if we measure this a Lot of the altcoins they went down over 90 so even the likes I remember I was Watching FTM you know that I think that Thing went down to 95 so a lot of them Have dropped that far it just doesn't Feel like the same thing it felt like in
2017 where it just went yeah but I think Maybe they'll just die out I think just More like you know does that come from a Sideways moving crypto where you know Bitcoin just goes sideways for a long Period of time and and those kind of get Slowly dumped because people are bored With them uh yeah that type of thing That's definitely possible you know like We see Bitcoin jump up it trades between 28 and 35 any down day of Bitcoin that Might go one percent all coins will go Three or four percent it's over that Period they just get bled out slow long Death which when I think about the Market sentiment like that's what some Of those investors need they just They're not going to see it and they're Just going to see it slowly down off and Then they'll see that one day where Bitcoin's up four percent and their Crypto's up two percent and they'll Think that they're winning and we yeah Both of us know that they're not winning At the end of the day and that will take Them out Um I mean anyone can prevent that I'm Not trying to have a go at them they Just have to watch a chart and you know Identify where the strong ones are and The weak ones are yeah but yeah I that I Think is a very high possibility and Especially even if they do go up I don't Think they'll outpace Bitcoin in this
First part you know Bitcoin dominance Takes over and we're seeing it break out Today yeah and one of the things I keep On watching for too is the regulation Right when do we see the regulation be Unveiled for the crypto markets from the SEC we're seeing you know I think Binance got sued recently I mean there's So many different lawsuits that are Being pushed out but I want to know the Regulation like for me that's one of the Reasons why I can't I can't put a ton of Money in in Bitcoin or any Cryptocurrency yet I I mean I certainly Have small dabblings I do swing trades But for me it's like okay well if you Don't know the rules of the game how do You play that game right Right I I don't I guess I'm not overly Concerned like do you still think crypto Is going to trade regardless of what Happens with regulations I do I do I Just wonder how How do altcoins more than anything Bitcoin to me is fine in ethereum is Fine it's more the question of What happens when you have to have Quarterly reports from some of these Cool I mean when when the books get Opened on some of these crap coins and You get to see behind the curtains what Does that do to some of them does that Cause a panic do we see invest I mean Maybe that's one of the reasons a lot of
These will go away maybe all of a sudden You get this type of like pull the Curtains back and then investors are Finally like wait a minute there's Nothing there Exactly and that's possibly where they Get dumped and so when you go into this Next Narrative pump you know we had defined 2020 and then D5 was like nothing in 2021 maybe the next narrative pump is Like is sooner than that Awkward season And it's I'm a regulated AI Meta whatever thing you want to add to It and we have a pump on regulator coins Uh I mean I know lots of people in the US which Probably shouldn't say it but they'll Use vpns and trade wherever the hell They want Um that sort of stuff goes on so I guess I wasn't overly concerned with the Regulations and how much it came up in That psyche in The Narrative of the Media almost reminded me of China Banning Bitcoin China Banning Bitcoin China China okay we've heard it but why Is the price going up it obviously Doesn't mean anything to the market was There any other macro stuff you want to Look at in in terms of Bitcoin with that Level Way it gets invalidated and then to the Downside like you know if it doesn't if
We don't break that level what does it Look like yeah sure well just looking at The charts I mean so so basically at Least for me on the charts it's this was Resistance right here around this 28 700 Level right we kept on piercing it and Then finally we've moved it through it So what what's interesting is and you Know this from technical analysis is When you break resistance it now becomes Support So now on the way back down Let's say it gets rejected at this 30 And change level this now becomes Support uh if it gets through there then This level now becomes support so There's there's a bunch of supports that Were established because of all this Sideways consolidation so it's going to Take a hefty cell to get us back through That that's where things get more Interesting if we do get rejected and we Get through this area you then start Trading towards the 25 000 level and Eventually you can retest some of these Lower levels but for me yeah I mean Right now I'm a Trader that is very Focused level by level so I'm looking to See okay well what happens here at 30 000 and change level and if it gets Rejected do we break this level if it Breaks well then the next level is right Here and I'm just kind of a step-by-step Trader in that respect and again that's Part of the shorter term mindset of what
I do is just like okay that's been Broken now you look for the next one Right if that one doesn't get broken Then you look and kind of focus on that Plate simple you know it's yeah It works long term when you just play it Simple so using that same analysis if You went up to do you look at the weekly In the monthly or you just prefer to Stay daily no I do look at the weekly Absolutely absolutely So I'll show you I really want to yeah I Really want to hammer home some of some Of the best stuff because I've been told That I'm way too bullish and I need to Be humbled and The market will always humble us so I Really want to see like am I missing any Of the the points here so yeah the next Thing in terms of the bearish outlook For the weekly Yeah so so again weekly chart shows the Same thing you have all this kind of Sideways chop here all this kind of area Here the one thing I would say is if we Do break 30 the next big level for me Would be this area here this kind of Retrace to this area where you have These lows connected to these lows and That actually brings us to maybe I mean You know kind of the best case scenario For me would be a move up to 43 44 000 At least in the near term so that would Be the bull case to me again you know I
Look at this bigger chart and this Happens to be the midpoint of this m Pattern M pattern and you can even see The A on this chart right here's your m And then here was your little a pattern So I'm using a classic m a pattern and Then this is just a retrace to that Middle point which is so common like if You you could look at stock charts Commodity charts all these charts when You get this pattern and it retraces This tends to be a major stopping point In the retrace of the bounce and also Just one thing and I'll just point this Out before before you see something here Is that the other thing to look at too Is I mean the bullish sentiment in Bitcoin is is is bothersome to me Because I've never known something to Make a bottom where people get so Bullish so quickly and that's also Something that kind of concerns me and When you look at this bigger chart right I mean this is a it's a great bounce Don't get me wrong I mean bitcoin's up 100 off the lows but let's not forget in 2018 we hit 3 500 and we bounced back 300 to like 10 000 and that was still a Bear Market we still you know ultimately Stayed in the lower ranges for quite Some time uh before we really broke out Uh so maybe it's part of the terminology That we use because I would say once That low is in and say December 2018
That's the beginning of the bull market And bull markets are made up of certain Stages you've got that first stage where Yeah everyone gets excited but the Bears Will have their day again and will come Back 20 or 50 percent and then it goes Through that next cycle and everyone's Sort of trying to figure out is it Actually bullish is it actually bearish That sort of thing so Uh you know this low was in November it Wasn't until I think it was January that Big green bar where it finally broke out So we're down there for about six weeks So everyone was still quite bearish at That point but we started putting those Little higher lows what I was going to Say earlier was that uh yellow line you Drew across around that 30 31 000 level Um I I get that often as well I was Wondering with your members and students And that that With the TA do they think it's only Suitable on bitcoin do they understand That it's across the board because I've Had to say that you can use this across Any chart yeah that I think is the Coolest thing about it is that technical Analysis is so Universal so I always Remind people that you know if you learn Technical analysis you can trade Anything as long as it has volume that's Kind of my caveat it's like if you're Going to trade a stock that trades 10
000 shares a day one one Trader can mess That whole thing up but if you're Trading things with liquid like you know Oil or or Bitcoin or Apple stock I mean It's charts are charts right and and the Thing that people have to remember is That when you're looking at this chart We're not really trading a chart we're Trading humans human emotion right we're Trading buyers and sellers and they're Reacting to Greed and fear and so that's Why it's so Universal is because the Same thing read and fear occurs in oil In gold in in stocks all of that stuff Yeah gotcha yeah yeah I wondered because That's what I've had to say too people Say well what about for stocks or what About for other cryptos and you realize That hang on a minute the TA it's the Rules that work on the chart and you're Exactly what you said you're just Trading yeah human emotions in the chart There were two levels that you brought Up you had 31 000 and around that mid 40s it's interesting you brought those Levels up because they're also my levels Oh cool 42 because it's a halfway point So it's on log if that's if I take it Off log you can see there so the halfway Point between the low and the high is 42. we often look to 50 levels Exactly some sort of resistance and Right now we're coming up to another one At around that 31 8 which is also peaked
Just there so they're going to be Critical levels if the market can break Through this let's call it 32 as a round Number then it's got it has to close Above that of course you know we always Say it's closed it's not just Wix but That's going to be a good base Here to then attempt any of the higher Levels whether it's high 30s whether It's the 40s whatever it may be but um Yeah that 31 31 and a half looks pretty Good it's also A significant level So I've talked about this being the Basically the 15K bears are dead so I'm Watching this is what what is called a Over balance in time and price have you Ever heard of that mm-hmm You have yes well then you completely Understand what I'm looking at here then It's yeah right it's about there so this Was the biggest range to the upside During the bear Market if you say that This is the bear Market This range now is just a few hundred Bucks short of over balancing the price And it's definitely over balance of time It's gone so you say yeah I call it a Measured move but same thing yep Absolutely very important it's not a Percentage it's a it's a dollar value And the dollar value is nearly it's Nearly moved the same amount from that So yeah measured move in terms of
Um price but a lot of people don't Follow time and you know this move here In time was I think it was nine weeks Yeah nine weeks whereas now obviously We've been up way more than nine weeks We're at our 20th week so I think it's Coming to an end and we just need to get To that 31k level and you can see a lot Of resistance coming out at 31.32 right So um what do we hit 30 500-ish rate Today so yeah very close very close to 31. yeah and that would then be I yeah That's your invalidation that's the uh Over balancing time at price so I think That anyone waiting for a break of 15K You can basically cross that off your List and you know sometimes I go as far As to say I don't think 19 and a half is Going to be broken just because of how Severe the news was on that low and then How big the reaction was from it like Banking collapse that was just across Everyone the news across the world Credit Suisse yeah uh Deutsche Bank like Everything had to collapse and you know Just as a bit of a fun move here was Credit Suite is CS I think yep I mean the news says it's gonna it's Down 50 60 all I did was bring up a chart Which you would do the same and go hang On a minute it's been down for 16 years You fools it's a shitty company yeah I Know I know it's really an amazing chart
To look at like you know to think about That is remarkable 16 years down and they were worried that The banks are all collapsing it's like Before that news came out it was telling You it was telling you that there's just It's it's a dead man walking yeah Absolutely wild Um I guess the last thing I just want to Have a quick look at was the time frames So I'll just mention that was the time Frames of the four-year cycle And I'll get your views on the four year Cycle in a sec I guess I'll just mention The four years essentially is looking at A low To a low it doesn't have to have a blow Off top it doesn't have to have a Rounded top it doesn't have to be Anything like that it just needs to have A significant low to a significant low And the timing sorry I've got a few Things on there but the timing is Essentially about a thousand days to 1100 days up and about 360 to 400 Days To the downside And so we've hit that Mark on the head In November and so if we look out to About a thousand days now Uh the next Peak somewhere around summer Of 2025. Interesting so if this came back down it Would put all the counts out which is
Not impossible you know counts can get Put out but at the moment it's sort of Been working pretty well to those to Those time counts so if I sort of Measure that around a thousand days is There if we go to 1100 you know some Somewhere so one of the things that and I'm a huge cycle person you know I Followed the lunar cycle solar cycle I Follow a lot of that kind of stuff and Figure look at it in relation to Charting but like with with crypto and Bitcoin my struggle with the cycle and Whether it's the four year cycle or Whatever is saying okay the four-year Cycle all the history all you have to go With is since 2009 which was when the FED fed started quantitative easing Right so this is technically that first Bear cycle without printing money Um does it change you know is it you Know and to me that makes me wary of it It's like okay well if everything was The same yes it makes sense that you're Gonna have the same Cycles but you take Away something as as powerful As as the trillions of dollars that were Flooding in how does that affect the Cycle or does it not affect the cycle And I think that's the big question I mean because of the cycle analysis I Would say it does not affect the Cycles It's like the seasons never change it's Just how severe are the seasons so
That's what I'm saying Um the low to the low this could be the Low to the top right and then you get The next low it doesn't it doesn't mean That the high has to go higher it's just Is it a significant high and is there Going to be a significant low so we're Just measuring the low to the low that's That's basically what the four year Cycle means here other people got other Ideas about a four year cycle you know With the halving and all that sort of Thing but you know this this low uh Sorry this top Could have come in at 20K and then we Fall to 3K and that's still a four year Cycle so yeah that might happen that Might happen after this next top maybe This next top we go to I don't know 90k And we come all the way back to these These levels here at 50 or 60k you know Just as just as like a worst case Scenario or something like that and then The next four year cycle only barely Goes up to where that previous top was And then you get the next low somewhere Out here which would all work in with Like you know the the depression after 2026 we have a pretty Pretty uh crappy four-year cycle for for The majority of people and maybe the top Comes in within the first half of the Cycle so all it means is you've got two Years on this side and two years on that
Side and the top comes in the first two Years that's a that's a weak cycle Whereas all of these Cycles the top has Come in On the second half of the cycle which is Strong because you've got more bullish Move and then less bearish move so if This happens Very very weak if that next top comes in In the first half you can expect that You'll see an equal low or lower low to Where that next um you know 2025 or 2026 Whatever that low is no so that's that's The for you there Very cool man Yeah that's I mean that's what I look at when it Comes to those cycles and I think that's What will happen because of the real Estate cycle as well where we get this Blow off top in um actually I've got a Little chart here It's my real estate yeah it's what we're Expecting Through this period at the top and then A dump into those next few years so if Real estate's dumping the stock market Will be dumping Bitcoin will also be Dumping it's all going to be coming down And I think that'll catch a lot of People off guard thinking that Bitcoin Always goes to New highs it's not always Going to go to new highs yeah I agree With that
It'll suck enough people in here and Then it will spit them all back out in That next move on the way down I think Yeah Cool Yeah wonderful man Uh anything you want to add no this has Been I this is the types of of chats That I love so I love us kind of just Back and forth and throwing things at Each other and stuff like that so so Very cool I appreciate uh the time Tonight this has been great likewise I Really appreciate it so if you're Watching this on my channel I'll have Gareth links down below Same thing over here you just give us Give us the links and we'll throw it up For you absolutely Damn so yeah it'll be on gareth's Channel and my channel as well so thanks Very much mate you can subscribe to us On YouTube on Twitter we're always Posting over there and we'll have all of Our other Any other links that we have will be Down below Um I reckon we try and do this again in Another several months time see how Everything's lining up it's always been A fun discussion especially when we're On two different sides of the equation Interesting and always learning so um Yeah I really appreciate it mate thank
You yeah I do too thank you for uh for Putting it together and I look forward To a couple months revisiting our uh our Analysis Cheers all right peace out guys thanks Everyone
