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Video Description:
Data-filled update on real estate cycle, stock market performance for 2024, bitcoin investor pump and the crypto bull market cycle timing. Altcoin season update, Bitcoin price prediction update, Stock markets hitting new all-time high prices and what this means for investors. Bitcoin and SP500 March Data including monthly returns, 6-monthly and annual forward returns.
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We're now 2 months down in 2024 Bitcoin's had its second highest monthly Close in history we'll have a look at What that means in the market and Looking forward through to March and the Forward returns over the coming 6 months Bitcoin has also had its largest dollar Gain in history now up 43% on the month So we're starting out March pretty damn Strong so what does that mean for March What does it mean for Bitcoin what does It mean for the S&P 500 we're also going To look at the bull market that is Currently on and the data the statistics Here showing what we can expect for 2024 Leading into 2025 as well guys hit that Like And subscribe we are on our journey To 400,000 subscribers in 2024 we've Been here all throughout the bare Market Looking at how that bottom has formed And we want to look at how the tops will Come into play as well links in the Video description for our sponsors on The channel swiftex buy bit bitg check Them out use them don't use them Entirely up to you guys let's kick it Off with being extremely bullish on the Markets well that's a little bit of a Joke I am bullish on the markets but This is that phase now where you get Hate for not being bullish enough There's a lot of people that come Through late in the market and this is Going to continue on throughout this the
The rest of the bull markets so Essentially as I say be cautious of the Moves to the upside and have stops in Place to the downside in case the market Comes back against you and of course Start to take profits as well bull Markets don't last forever but they can Last a very significant time as we're Seeing with the sentiment flipping in The markets here a lot of bullish Sentiment this is one of the highest Bullish readings we've seen for some Time uh week's ending here throughout February 49% 42 44 46 so essentially Every single week was more bullish than It was bearish this is the bearish Statistics on this side the historical Uh average was much below where we saw The February readings come out and in Terms of the bearishness there you are 31% bearishness is the historical Average now in terms of the bull market For the S&P 500 this is one of the Shortest bull markets in history so far It's a year and a third up it's had a 40% increase from the bottom there Looking at the 12th of October using a Closing price not the exact price low This is how they measure it uh in the Financial markets now in terms of the Averages here Seth good friend of the Channel here Co bull market was the Shortest in history looking at it in Terms of time so far we are shorter than
That and so essentially we're trying to Figure out whether our theory of an ex Uh a bull market continuing on Throughout 2024 without this recession Without this fear of collapse in 2024 Without some sort of top blowoff top Coming in the first half of 2024 and Then severe crash seeing if that Actually Stacks up to the data that we Have seen since World War II now the Average returns of 157% for a bull market of course that's An average it could be lower it could be Higher you can see here that the Averages from these particular bull Markets 86 80 48 73 you get the idea and Then there have been some massive ones Through the the '90s and the um mid 2000s you know from 2009 onwards we had A 400% increase from that time and so if There was the possibility of the market Crashing in 2024 it would have to break Basically all of these records and be One of the shortest bull runs in history It's not impossible I just don't like Stacking those particular odds against Myself in this bull market especially When we are roughly here in the 18.6 Year cycle heading up into this blowoff Peak which could last a little longer Than many are anticipating so that's Some pretty damning evidence looking at The extent or the length of the bull
Markets you can see here in terms of Days months years and then the price Range as well so that's pretty good news Moving forward into 2024 and 2025 for Further macro upside there will be Corrections along the way that's typical But when you start to look at the Corrections that occur after the market Runs in to a new all-time high They're few and far between when they're Multimon Corrections you can see we had A significant one here in 2015 but the Market was running up pretty damn strong Since 2011 the 2011 low the breakout in 2013 and then throughout that period Over the next year and a half two years You basically only saw single month Corrections in terms of the price itself And in terms of even just the swing Chart there's really only one maybe 1 to Two months of a swing chart before you Finally got a significant correction and Then when we're looking at that Significant correction the price itself Or the percentage drop was only roughly 15.5% market then went on again you had A few months here that were red but Essentially flat. 1% negative. 5% Negative 1.4% negative total move from That period to the downside 7.44% over The period of roughly 3 months and then Again green green green green flat green Green green green green green green Green all the way up to the top 2018
Comes along again correction up into That next Peak for 2019 early 2020 and Then again away she runs and so the Reason for looking at that is once we Start to break into these new all-time Highs typically what we've seen at least Over the last 15 or so years green green Green all the way up now we can continue We can take that a little further go Look at the Dow Jones as well it's got a Lot more history here again once it Broke out from the 2 uh sorry 1987 Black Friday Black Monday drop here Uh you can see that there was not too Much going on you had the recession in The 80 8990 and then single red month Corrections along the way up to the bull Market top of the dot bubble that's Where things started to get a little More serious to the downside so in terms Of historical events here once we start To break into new all-time highs there Is quite a significant period where it Can keep grinding up higher and higher This is my way of saying I am very very Bullish I'm cautious now because the Lows are in the lows are the easiest Times to be getting into the market That's why I very strongly suggest Staying with the market whether you Follow on the channel here or somewhere Else just stay with the market Throughout the bull and the bear and You'll get a feeling you'll get an
Understanding of how those lows begin to Form if you want to stay here hit that Subscribe button you'll get updated That's your Moor for the thumbs up as Well so onto Bitcoin let's look at March Let's look at some more of that data Quick news piece here we see lots on the ETFs we see lots on harving now we're Seeing crypto rumors of Jeff Bezos sold 8.5 billion in Amazon stock to buy Bitcoin if you were new to Cryptocurrency this type of turns Up throughout the bull markets there It's basically entirely speculative There is absolutely no proof that Jeff Sold his 8.5 billion in Amazon stock to Buy Bitcoin and of course it could all Be true it could definitely all be true But this is the sort of thing that we See every single bull market I was here In 2017 we saw the same sort of nonsense Back then if you were here in 2020 2021 You know you've seen that same sort of Nonsense back then and they're trying to Pull all these different pieces of the Puzzle together to give you some sort of Bullish opium hey I love it if people Get excited for it in a bull market and It starts to push more price up and People get fomo that's going to be great For everyone that's still holding Whether you're holding Bitcoin eth Altcoins I was going to say stable coins That's not going to help you in that
Case but if you're holding anything and You see these sorts of ridiculous rumors Which are based on nothing but a tweet By someone and it pushes price up well It's kind of like Dogecoin and the Elon Mus tweet days so is Michael sailor Going to talk the ear off Jeff Bezos and Tell him to get into Bitcoin we can all Hope so let's see if that plays out over The coming weeks and we can Circle back To this and say well this big pump up Bar of 43% $185,000 in February being the biggest Month in history well maybe it was all Jeff Bezos buying maybe he's buying some Of Michael sailor's bags CU he has got a Lot he's got a big big bag there so onto Bitcoin and looking at the time frames As we approach a new all-time high what We're looking at yesterday was the Possibility of Bitcoin closing at its Highest monthly close in history so Something that Hadn't happened in history before Waiting for this thing to close it as Highest monthly close in history it fell Short by about $160 it closed at $ 61,62 the previous highest close was October 2021 uh at 61357 so it could do it this month we'll Wait and see it probably doesn't mean That the market is going to collapse From this point I think most of us can
Establish that by now it's been a very Strong healthy uptrend the thing want to Note here is the length of the move from The all-time high to the highest monthly Close after the old all-time high so for Example the previous cycle 2017 monthly Close here 13,888 if you're Asian you must love That number there I definitely do I love The 888s 13,888 uh then we got the close in October 2020 at 30,8 call it 10 bucks so there was 34 Months from that top to that next Monthly close just slightly under next Month powered on through that was November and then came back came up to Test the all-time high price followed by December breaking through the alltime High price and away she goes from that Point so that was 34 months go back to Cycle prior you had 39 months from the All-time highest close 1205 and then it took 39 months till February 2017 to get to 1190 so 1205 1190 next month was down so Basically it came up to test it next Month pulled back following that you had April 2017 push higher higher close $1,362 and away she goes from that point So this time around we're at 28 months Didn't happen this month maybe it Happens next month Bitcoin is roughly About 28 29 months away from the
All-time high closing price of course The highest price 69,000 the highest Closing price is 61358 that's the target to beat now what We can note is that they're getting Shorter periods to breaking through that Old all-time high hold your horses that Does not mean Cycles are shortening or Lengthening I had this bit of a Discussion on Twitter with someone Saying that they think of the cycle is Lengthening Cycles don't lengthen they Don't shorten this is just history the World doesn't go through 300 days and Then the next year goes through 400 day For a calendar year it's 3655 days in The case of aipia 366 so you get some Slight variances there but you don't get A lengthening year you don't get a Lengthening winter or a lengthening Summer it's roughly around the same Sometimes the heat lasts a little bit Longer into Autumn sometimes the cold Lasts a little bit longer into spring But essentially it all works itself out And you get roughly similar Cycles over A long period of time when we look at The 4year cycle as we have done here on The channel looking at the left Translated or the right translated cycle That just tells you about the strength Of the move so 4year Cycles are low to Low not the Haring not anything else It's low to low because that gives you a
Rough idea of the gauge looking at the Strength of the cycle where does that Top come in so in terms of what we what We have done what the market has done Just data just the facts here not my Opinion even though there was a longer Period underneath the old alltime High You still saw 10 months up very very Quick run to the upside 10 months tops In game over next cycle was 34 months so 34 months underneath that previous old Highest monthly closing price Market Runs up fast then spends a little longer In that all-time high territory above The previous old alltime high I should Say and that gave us 13 months above That previous resistance Zone here Roughly October of course November broke Through and that was where the highest Close was but give just having a look at The time frames here there was an Extension of time above the previous old All-time high before the bare Market Kicks in and then Market collapses from That point So two things can happen Market could Run up here we get a left translated Cycle comes back under and then we spend A fair bit of time underneath these Prices underneath the previous old Alltime high that's going to be quite Weak uh a healthy correction and then a Bounce away to close back above the old Alltime high is still okay so there's a
Couple of things there I guess that's One thing and 1.5 on the options but the next thing That could happen is that Bitcoin breaks Above the old alltime high then spends Time above the old alltime high Consolidating before it runs away again From that point bringing us somewhere Into 2025 maybe the first half maybe the Second half I'm not sold on when the Alltime high must come in yet we still Have few more months to go to figure out What happens here do we start to break Above and consolidate above the reason I Bring that up is that we've seen it with The S&P 500 we see it with all sorts of Markets um in terms of the S&P here this Is a little bit of a joke that I put on To Twitter the other day uh as it breaks Above old all-time highs you can see From here starts to run away from that Point another good Market to look at Would be something like Germany there's The old all-time high broke above took a Fair bit of time to consolidate and has Continued to break higher it just put in A new all-time high again and it's in a Recession side note okay so markets can Do that they run up break into new All-time highs need time to consolidate Come back and retest the previous tops And then move away from that point France was also doing something very Similar a breakout into new all-time
Highs come back test the tops break out Into new alltime high come back and test These previous tops France also with flying all around Paris with from The farm New all-time high territory again so This is a sort of movement as an option For Bitcoin if we're to see it break out Earlier and you can see the pattern here That was 39 months 34 months maybe it Happens this month in March so it's it's Uh shortening by 5 months to get to the Breakout point but in terms of the Four-year cycle looking at low to low so That 4year doesn't change you just get An idea of is this the top going to come In the week side or the strong side of The timing of the cycle it's no Different to how we measure the price Where we look at the 50% level does Price consolidate above the 50% level or Below the 50% level below is weak above Is strong very very simple when you Break it down like that to give you an Idea of uh more buyers coming into the Market is demand picking up or is Supply Starting to take hold and if Supply Starts to take hold well you can guess What happens next and if you can't guess Market goes down so we got the March Forward returns to have a look at I want To end this part here with looking at The end of the cycle there's a couple of Counts now I've got August sitting here
So we've looked at roughly August September maybe even into October so it Sits around quarter 3 maybe just into Quarter 4 could this come a little Earlier in 2025 for sure let's have a Look at that data as it comes through But the idea that it did now this is Starting to get a little bit more Subjective here because we don't have Enough data to form a solid opinion from This point but but we will humor It Anyway looking at where it could Continue to run the idea if it was to Run above the old all-time high and to Remain above the old all-time high and Consolidate even if it broke into a new Alltime high early in that left part of The cycle I would say provided it can Hold above the previous old all-time High and then start to work its way Higher you'd probably then see a right Translated cycle again again so it might Seem weak at first because it's jumping Into the all-time high territory on the Left hand side but and it's a massive Massive but because we still need more Data here if it's able to hold above Those levels consolidate and start to Work its way higher there is a higher Chance that it would then put in another Fresh high in the right hand side of the 4-year cycle that is something that We're going to continue to come back to Because I think it's really important
Leading into this next stage of the move Do we push into new alltime highs do we Pull back from here let's have a look at What March has shown in the past using Our Tia indicator forward returns table Here now this isn't available yet but we Are rolling this out over the coming Months so if you want to get notified When this comes out Link in the top of The video description join the email List there you'll get a free report uh Every single week but for now let's have A look March looking at all of the data Excluding 2010 and 2024 because we don't Have a reading for um for the March Period there and it's sort of limited We're looking at march here we have 13 Data points six wins seven losses now It's the third weakest month of the year For Bitcoin now the two weakest are August and September now if I move my Face out of the way here we move it to The top you can see that December isn't The greatest either at roughly 54% got Balloons flying everywhere and March Being the third weakest there so it Doesn't mean that it has to be a red Month it's just the numbers are stacked Against March being a red month just Looking at the monthly returns here now We have seen five straight months up for BTC and I've got salana to get to for You guys as well plus the six monthly Forward returns we're going have a look
At what happens for Bitcoin 6 months From now and 12 months from now as well But just looking at the the monthly Swings for BTC you can see that we've Been up 5 months now using the swing Chart here G swing indicator turn this Particular tool on down the bottom bark Count and leave it at zero so you can Count the number of bars to the upside Or in this case candles and so as we Continue on with more and more green Months to the upside in the past one of The biggest streaks Bitcoin has done is 10 months so just looking at going out Of the low into that first pullback of Two months 10 months with a sideways Accumulation so we haven't really seen That yet either so if we take that one Out of the mix we haven't seen any sort Of sideways accumulation You've Got 7 Months you got 5 months into the peak 6 Months into the 2019 Peak 5 months out Of the co bottom 1 month pullback 7 Months into that first top before a Massive uh 55% correction and then 5 months into The old all-time high so taking that 10 Months out essentially You've Got 7 5 6 5 7 5 I was about to say six it almost sound Like it should rhyme so maybe we get Something like that for March push up Pull back down you'd still get 6 months Up you would still get your red month
Looking at march here being 46% return a Lot of Reds through this area here and The mark would still be strong even if It did have that kind of pullback am I Saying March is going to be red of Course not these are all probabilities I'm not telling you that it has to be Red I'm just keeping a watch out for the Extension of uh number of month straight To the upside we're keeping a lookout For what has happened historically for Bitcoin looking at it being a green or a Red but let's look a little further out Than just one month we're not here for The one month gains we're here for the Longer gains so 6mon returns looking at March through to August historically it's been one of the Best 6mon periods 69.23% you got a few red six-month Periods here of course 2022 that is your Bare Market year another bare Market Year another bare Market year so without The bare Market years you had a negative 10% in 2015 that was the cycle bottom Where Bitcoin was moving around the lows And then you got that nice big break to The upside so that six-month period Looks relatively good if we turn these Back on have a look at uh January 71% Move if you're buying in January and Selling at the end of June you've got a 78% February to July you're at a 69% not Too bad but not as good as February of
Course and February has shown that so Far we had a massive move to the upside For February if that continues on and it Doesn't come back well that's just going To add to uh the number down here in Terms of April not the greatest time Buying in April and holding till September for that six months almost a 50-50 chance there of making a profit May uh May to October selling May and go Away it doesn't seem to be that case for BTC it's at 69% uh June to November 61 so March the March period isn't such a bad time Either it still has a much higher Percentage not as great as some of the The other months like buying in February Or buying in December at 71% but Nonetheless it's still up around that um 69 70% so not the worst readings here in Terms of 12 months buying today and Selling at the end of February it's About a 69% return so very similar to That 6-month period if we take out the Bare years again 2014 18 and 202 2 you Just have one loss there of 2021 so Right up at that peak of the bull market Just NE 4% but let's move on to Sala and Some of these cryptos which have also Started to move to the upside now I'm Focusing on the BTC charts as we were Watching salana BTC it had its move Almost dead onto that 50% level back Down at roughly
178,000 Satoshi that was the failure and The strength in that move is that it Failed failed underneath and then in 2 Days sprung back above closed above it High volume and today is even showing More strength so what you want to see From here is a continuation of the move And a close at least a close above the Previous top but a higher close on the Bar if this is a short-term move up and A fall back down with a close that was All just a fake out to the upside so far It's looking good it's looking like some Of these cryptos especially salana here Now up at 8% against its BTC value and Against us it's at 82% pushing to new Fresh highs provided it can stay above The 50% level that is going to be a much Stronger cryptocurrency this thing has Been on a pretty solid tear and here it Is for you guys listen once as I said With other times I'm only going to say It once this one has shocked me salana Has done a very very significant move to The upside here that's okay there's Plenty more out there that's the way I Trade if Sal is on your table and you've Managed to scoop up a ton of it good Luck to you make those gains and move on If you've missed out it doesn't matter Doesn't matter because there's thousands And thousands of cryptos that are all Going to do similar types of returns That's the beauty about the altcoin
Market you can almost throw a dart at Anything and make some significant gains The problem that most people face is Knowing when to sell out of the market We've covered this before we'll cover it Again on the channel I hope you found a Ton of value from looking at Bitcoin and The stock markets especially with these Macro Cycles at play uh some of that Significant data about the bull market Ahead of us or the potential bull market Ahead of us and of course our forward Returns here on the monthly 6 Monon and 12 months thanks again for your time and Attention like And subscribe 400,000 Let's go this year 2024 see you in the next video till then Take care and peace out