Why is Bitcoin going up? Will cryptocurrency crash again in 2023? Today we are joined by Quant Analyst, Ben Cowen, to talk bitcoin, ethereum, altcoins, & MORE! LEAVE A COMMENT 👈
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TimeStamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 Bitcoin or Altcoins in 2023?
03:44 Do NOT Buy Altcoins Until This Happens..
06:22 When Altcoin Season?
10:05 Ethereum: Buy Now or Wait?
12:29 Ben Cowen’s Top 3 Altcoin To Buy Before 2024
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So I think there's a lot of people that Are that are going to make the Assumption that whenever bitcoin's rally Is over that the altcoin market will Will then explode higher is is that That's the general assumption but I Would I would say that the more likely The much more likely outcome is that Today I interview Quant analyst Benjamin Cowan and we share with you three Different crypto charts you need to see If you're invested in crypto first we Talk about altcoins in the middle we'll Talk specifically about investing in Ethereum and then at the very end I Asked him his top three altcoins today But before all that Ben what's your General take today on bitcoin versus Altcoins yeah so my general thoughts are That we are still well within what I've Called the altcoin Reckoning since Basically the beginning of 2022 and the Way that you get to the end of the Altcoin recording is you need to see the Bitcoin dominance explode higher Okay so We've seen Bitcoin go up quite a bit Recently but I think a lot of the reason It's gone up isn't because we're you Know one of the narratives is of Hyperinflation right it's not because of That we're actually more likely to see Rapid disinflation via recession that I Think we already see hyperinflation I Think what's really setting the Bitcoin
Price higher one of the reasons is the Constant devaluation of altcoins on Their Bitcoin Pairs and what I'm Watching very closely is this move here Compared to what happened over here in In mid 2018 you'll notice the dominance Rallies started at around the same level At around that 39 level and that's where It started this time as well But here's the interesting thing about This dominance rally if you look at the Dominance rally you might assume that The price of Bitcoin only went up or Down uh during that time but in reality During that dominance rally the price Spent half the time of that rally going Up and then at the other half of it Going down and the reason why that's Important if we if we look at this right Here the reason why that's important is Because it tells you if it's essentially Broken the back of the altcoin market Okay so looking at this rally here in in 2018 you can see that the dominance of Bitcoin went up to about 50 percent on The rally of Bitcoin USD so it hit 50 Once it hits 50 percent I think the the Implication is that essentially the Entire altcoin Market has lost their Support levels on their on their Bitcoin Pairs and then when Bitcoin corrects Which is eventually going to happen it Never seems like it's going to it's Going up right but eventually whenever
Bitcoin corrects the altcoin market on Their Bitcoin pairs don't really have Anywhere to hide anymore and that's That's essentially the issue if you look At this rally back over here that took Bitcoin dominance to 50 you'll notice That it took out this prior high on the Bitcoin dominance now if you look at it Where it is today these prior highs were About at 49 or so So my hope is that this this move is Strong enough to get the dominance above That 50 level so that whenever Bitcoin Corrects the altcoin market continues Its bleed back to bitcoin and if that Happens then the move to 60 dominance is Crazy as that sounds right as crazy as It sounds but the move to 60 dominance Can actually happen uh quite quickly I've been under the assumption for a Long time that the altcoin market is Just simply not worth the risk uh with Respect to bitcoin so the point is if You're putting a dollar into the Cryptoverse you have to put it somewhere And and if Bitcoin is likely going to Outperform the altcoin market as a whole Then then what's the point in in not Just putting it into Bitcoin if you're Going to put it somewhere Um and I think that's what we've seen Play you know play out time and time Again is that the altcoin market just Continually gets devalued on their
Bitcoin pairs throughout this phase Another way to view this is to look at The dominance excluding the stablecoin Market Because I think some people have like Kind of used this chart to say that all Coins have been holding up well but the Reality is if you look at this excluding Stable coins Can you see this chart here yeah Yeah you can see that it's actually the Dominance is already at 52 and a half Percent excluding stable coins so the Dominance is already making that move Quite a bit higher it doesn't even need To go that much higher to take out the High from June of 2022 and so when you When you look at at something like the The altcoin season index indicator which Kind of tells you if we're really in Bitcoin season or altcoin season this is Based on the last 90 days and if you Take a 30-day estimate of it I'm under The impression that you know every every Year and a half two and a half years we Need to come to this deep value on Bitcoin season where the metric comes to Down around five or so so it did it in September 2018 it did it in December of 2020 so this one was you know this one Was it was not bullish right it was more Bearish this one was bullish because Bitcoin was just going up like crazy but I think that we need to see the
Dominance or the altcoin season index Come back down into that like five level Or so uh before we can truly get to the End of the altcoin Reckoning which is The altcoins being devalued on their Bitcoin pairs something that's very Interesting As if you look at the move we had last Year in 2022 of the of the altcoin Season index indicator you can see we Kind of had like a double bottom here Where we went into Bitcoin season a Little bit but we only got like a taste Of it right it only occurred it lasted For a couple of months and then we had The ethereum merge and every everything Took back off again right but what's Interesting is is that this move looks Very similar to what we had in 2019 Right where you had sort of like a Double bottom on the altcoin season Index indicator so I think there's a lot Of people that are that are going to Make the assumption that whenever Bitcoin's rally is over that the altcoin Market will will then explode higher is Is that that's the general assumption But I would I would say that the more Likely the much more likely outcome is That the dominance will continue to go Higher even when Bitcoin corrects back Down and that ultimately would show you That the cryptoverse is healing and is Getting back to a point where where all
Coins might actually be worth the risk Again after the after the finalization Of that altcoin Reckoning after Bitcoin Has truly taken back uh the market cap Pers you know the the the market cap Percentage that it that it really should Be at I think um especially at this Phase of of the market cycle It feels good to heal it's necessary but Ben I do notice on these charts that There's diminishing returns on bitcoin Dominance so even though we're brushing Up against 50 now There's no guarantee if you if you if we Keep diminishing those returns that we Get back to 70 or whatever that last Level was last season Yeah so I don't I don't necessarily Think that we're going to get to 70. one Of the things that you look at on here Is that you see higher you see lower Highs this is excluding stable coins you See lower Highs but you also see higher Lows right I mean think about all the VC Money that came in this past you know The past two years think about all the Hype all the nfts the dominance still Was higher it's the dominant still went Lower in 2018 than it ever did during This past cycle right so you see lower Highs but you also see higher lows if You extend this time frame out a few Years this will actually converge in About 2026. so I guess 2026 might be the
Time we we get to figure out you know Will Bitcoin dominance go back up uh or Will it come back will it come back down And to actually give you a more you know Maybe a closer look at what my Expectation is for the for the Bitcoin Dominance because I think some people Might assume that I only ever think it's Going to go up but I would say that a Likely path for it you know could be Something like this where it comes back Up maybe to 55 60 and then bleeds back Down for a bit and then comes back up For say like a double top or something Maybe similar to over here and then it's A you know it's at this point that you Can actually get these major All Seasons Right this is the All Season everyone Dreams of that we had in 2017 we had in 2021 but in order to see an all season You know similar to what we saw Back over here similar what we saw back Over here we first I think need to see The dominance get back up to a level Because once the dominance is at that Level then there's so much of that money Can flow into the altcoin market and Speculation in the altcoin market so I Think the main difference between you Know 2021 and and right now is that back Then the dominance was much higher and It had a cliff to jump jump off of I Don't really think it has that same Cliff today I think it needs to go
Higher first so you're right you're Right I mean the dominance is not going To go higher forever I I think that uh You will likely see it not go as High Um so for instance the highest that it Went last cycle excluding stable coins Was 74 I think the highest excluding Stable coins this time you'll see it Go Might be closer to around 65 percent Which isn't even that much higher I mean We're already at 52 so you're just Talking you know 13 higher that seems Perfectly reasonable and and part of That could be accomplished Um again as we've learned recently and As we've known right I mean it can it Can occur when one goes up not because Bitcoin goes down Um but that I think that's the important The important implication of of the Dominance is that it it really does show You the flow of the cycle For me as we finish this year say if Bitcoin gets to 30k maybe 40K whatever For me it's very hard to imagine that All of a sudden if Bitcoin hits 40K all These speculators want to then eighth Into the altcoins like a cardano or an Xrp not because they don't have value Just because markets are narratives and Maybe I'm in the disbelief stage but it Doesn't seem like the narrative would be There at least for this year this could Be this this crypto spring where
Everything just mucks around but for Full-on you know Um alts having a better risk reward Profile it's very hard for me to believe You know let me know in the comments if I just don't understand cardano Um but Ben Um Final thoughts for the altcoin daily Audience I appreciate you coming on yeah No thanks for having me Um yeah I think I think you're right I Mean like if you think about if we take A look at just a couple of like a couple Of assets besides Bitcoin like Ethereum's Bitcoin valuation Again it was a lower high and and the Way that I look at when I think about You know ethereum there's two ways I Think we can visualize this as to when It might actually show strength against Bitcoin because I don't think it's going To be this year I'm I'm in agreement With you I don't think it's going to be This year but I think like you know next Year or 2025 is when that could come Back so perhaps with with just to give You like a case example of ethereum I Think to look for is is to try to figure Out is it an oscillator where it it just Sort of spends a time in a Range like This or Everyone's familiar with the the Logarithmic aggression charts I think uh
By this point they're sort of a popular Thing throughout the cryptoverse right Or is it is it something more so akin to A logarithmic regression chart where the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation is sort of Slowly going up with time and therefore I think the place that you might get Interested in ethereum at least with Respect to bitcoin is if it comes back Down to this level down here maybe Around 0.03.04 or so could be an Interesting level to at least consider Um but but that's what I'm looking at And then I'm going to show you one last Chart because it is kind of a scary Looking chart this is the ethereum Market cap divided by Bitcoin market cap So the one the one issue with looking at Just ethereum's price divided by Bitcoin's price is that their supplies Are are you know they're not necessarily The same Um and so might it be better to actually View it in terms of the market cap Rather than rather than the price ratios And if you look at the ethereum Bitcoin Market cap ratio you can see that Ethereum has been climbing this since 2019 a slow climb I mean we've I always Talked about this forever but I think It's finally starting to show some Weakness here I don't I mean you could Make the case that it's a fake out like This was back in December 2020. I don't
Think that's the likely scenario I think That uh this has quite a bit further Down to go and and therefore you know The Bitcoin dominance has quite a bit Further uh further to go back up to the Upside so the ethereum should lead the Altcoin market in general and and that I Think is going to lead to that Dom and It's going up to to 60 but hey the good News is assuming we get there then uh Then the altcoin market might finally Make more sense again at least with Respect to bitcoin Final question let's say an eight months Bitcoin dominance does get here we have A nice crash things are looking like It's going to flip besides ethereum what Are three altcoins just on your radar Honestly you know the truth is is most All coins don't really survive Um and and you often have to be somewhat Flexible in the altcoins that you're Interested in so I would say at least Reserve one or two of those lot coins For Um for for new projects that don't exist Yet okay so I I think and that happened With ethereum think about when ethereum Launched right I mean it was what the End of 2015 just before the bull market Right think about when a lot of the Altcoins launched this past cycle it was You know 20 20. uh 2019 2020. they Didn't launch in 2018. you know not most
Of them because they don't want to Launch in the bear market so I'd say at Least one or two of them Um be be I think you have to be Um flexible in terms of in terms of just Saying hey it might just be a new Altcoin that doesn't exist today and an Altcoin that builds on the mistakes of All coins that came before it uh or or Builds on new ideas uh that came before It I I don't really consider ethereum at All but beyond Bitcoin I think a theory Is is by far the the safest play with Respect to the altcoin market beyond That Um it's really hard to pick out any Individual one I mean there is cardano As you mentioned earlier it is one of The few that managed to put in a new All-time high uh so I put in a high in 2017 2018 and it put in a new high in 2021 as well so I think you at least Have to consider that Um I think another one that I've I've Been fond of for a long time although The price action has been somewhat Abysmal is chain link uh you know that One is has been one that I I have my Eyes on Um I haven't I haven't really been that Interested in it for a while but again If the dominance can go higher maybe I Would I would get interested in it again And then you know beyond that I I think
I'll just have to wait and see which Ones actually survive this year okay so If they can survive this year then you Asked me in six months I'll probably Have a better answer to that because I Can actually see which which developers Didn't throw in the towel right which Ones didn't leave which which ones still Do have a community that that cares About something Um the the reality is that bear markets Can any and even recovery years can make People get bored and move on to new Things and and you don't want to gamble Too much on it so my my general point on The altcoin market is rather than rather Than gamble with them now just wait and See which ones are still around uh you Know eight six six to nine months from Now and the ones that are still building And providing utility those are the ones You uh you speculate on Foreign
