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There's a saying in the market that History repeats and there's often a Slight amendment to this that says History Rhymes we often see very similar Patterns occur time and time again Throughout each cycle regardless of what News events come up it's always Something different with each cycle at The moment we often see a lot of Emphasis given to what the FED is doing Right now so in today's video let's look At how this is repeating over the s p Using the vix and the US dollar looking At the updates here for what we're Expecting over the coming weeks and of Course dive into Bitcoin as well as we Begin to head into that transitionary Period with the data on the charts here Hopefully I've got you into that drill Now where you like And subscribe I know YouTube makes us act like monkeys here To get the algorithm going so I Appreciate your help there and of course Your comments as well one quick reminder As well top of the video description is A link to our investor Alpha report Which comes out tomorrow there's also Our two-year anniversary for the Investor accelerator with discounts on That as well so make sure you drop your Details down there it is the first link Drop your name email address and you'll Get those emails as well all right guys Enough from the shields for now but
Let's dive into what's happening in the Markets and the main thing that everyone Is waiting for is the fomc meeting which We looked at yesterday but like I said I Want to cover what is happening right Now give you that short term and that Long term so we can identify this History repeating and what to expect During this transitionary period as it Happens almost Blow by blow day by day So right now the market has dropped 1.27 Overnight and that is getting a lot of People excited if they're the Bears Waiting for much much lower prices and If you're the Bulls you're wondering did I just buy the top or should I be Waiting to buy at lower prices is this Actually the bottom that's in and we Should be buying all these dips and While no one has the complete 100 answer Not even myself even though I've been in The markets for over 15 years there's no Way to know exactly however all I'm Doing is just using the data on the Charts and layering that with longer Term cycles and so the cycles that we Continue to look at are swing bottoms And swing tops and so I've got here some Major support levels To keep in mind if the market begins to Break down now I'm not flipping bearish From yesterday's bullishness this is Looking at shorter term to longer term So like I'm looking at here we're
Looking at transitionary periods or Transitional periods here and these can Take quite some time so although on the Short term we can look for pullbacks Just like we are seeing now with a one Percent on the S P we have longer term Support levels which if they are not Broken still give us a longer term Bullish Outlook which could last weeks To months that's what we've been looking At from around May and June of 2022 as This began to form a potential base so This is potentially the transitional Period and through these transitional Periods we do see a lot of volatility This is a pretty big move to the upside And the downside and back again and so This is expected during these periods Because it is deciding whether the Bulls Are going to take control or the Bears Are going to take control the macro Balls on the macro Bears whereas on a Short term right now at least on the 24 Hours the Bears have taken control we've Got a one percent drop here and so the Major levels that we're looking out for Is around 3 800 points on the S P so This leads into the announcement coming Up in the next couple of days from the FED is this news going to be enough to Drop it past this level that's always What I'm looking for on the charts Whenever there's some big news Announcement coming up is it just a
Pullback for the media to spray new Headlines and the Bears to say you're Wrong and you know start to drop the Market further or is it just a Correction in the overall trend or in This case the transitional period where We start to put in higher lows across The board that's what we're waiting for Right now we have that support level in Here that's put in in December so all Eyes are on 3800 points transitional Periods are quite difficult like we'll Look at when it comes to bitcoin which Is why we have several indicators in Particular the swing indicator to give Us those critical pivotal points in the Market so should this level break down We still have this level at the lows Around 35 to 3600 points as well which Means if we drop into this level so the Zone between 35 and 38 it's just going To be a longer grind out at these levels Before we start to move again the Breakdown of 3500 the only thing that Could take this even weaker would be That breakdown of 3500 to the next Support level at 3200 points that's all There is for now but it's a long way off Considering where we currently are Having broken the downtrend for the First time in this entire bear Market Period from the peak in January if we're Able to put in some support and then Break above 42 that is going to be the
Key that's the strong area here it's Unfortunate that in the market it's a Whole big dick swinging game around Who's right and who's wrong is the Bears Is the Bulls and unfortunately I don't Help the situation I've obviously got my Opinions but I'm using what I can in the Charts to help me better plan for the Upcoming moves of course for my own Investment Portfolio so how else can I See this on the charts what else are the Charts telling us well when we look at The the vix we often get a move to the Downside for the vix so a drop in this Price when the s p goes up and obviously Overnight on this daily chart we had a Jump up on the vix meaning the Volatility increased because the s p Went down however when we take a broader Look here we zoom out we can see that There is a trend over time at least from 2020 where we had the big pandemic low That the vix is dropping down to the Levels between 11 and 17 which we know Are pretty good areas for the market to Begin climbing so for the s p for the Dow Jones for the indices to continue to Climb which means we're in a bull market So we're getting to that point we're not There yet our vix is now at 19.9 and Yesterday it was somewhere around 18. so We're slowly over time having some Bigger of smaller jumps but then a more Gradual decline potentially into this
Zone which then leads to less volatility And the ability for the s p to climb From that point as well so if the U.S Dollar basing out here over the last Three weeks we're now into our fourth Week with the possibility finally of the US dollar having a little bit of a rally Within this bear market so the bear Market began in September which we Pointed out here on the channel looking At uh late September being that Peak and The reason we're able to pick that is Because of time frames basically the Move up just getting over exhausted and The extreme panic in the news at that Time with the rest of economies Potentially collapsing or at least the Rest of the currencies out there like The Euro and the Yen and the pound Collapsing but basically that is what Was going on at the news at those Peaks Which we were then able to layer with Our technical analysis especially time Frames and those price targets coming Together now to the downside bear Market Is in play but we do have to have Rallies within this period so although We may see the s p have a little bit of Move to the downside which is Potentially lining up at the US dollar Having a slight rally to the upside as Well so this current support for the US Dollar and potential rally could be the Reason for Bitcoin having a pullback at
This point in time so we're obviously Going to keep an eye on the US dollar And what happens here right now as we Bounce or attempt to bounce off that Major 50 level at around 102. that leads Us over to bitcoin and this volatility Which is shown up in history during this Transitional period of the market now We've looked at the cycle day count so Basically how long has it taken from the Top to the bottom how many days is that And then the same deal for the bottoms To the tops and so far the last three Cycles have all come out relatively the Same pretty incredible over the course Of 13 or so years the upside being Approximately a thousand to Eleven Hundred Days so one thousand one hundred Days and the downside the bear markets Have been around one year to about one Year and two months like we saw in that 2014 to 2015 bear markets that was Around 410 days there so pretty incredible Stuff over the course of many many years Now what is this transitional period And I think it shows up quite nicely with The moving averages the 50-day and the 200 days so that's what our purple and Green lines are here the 200 is the Green the 50 is the purple and you may Be familiar with the terms death cross And golden cross the death cross is the Purple going under the green so the 50
Coming underneath the 200 that's the Death cross meaning that we're Potentially in for longer downside to The market and then the Golden Cross is When the market moves to the upside so The purple going above the green now I Don't use this in my trading however it Is very interesting to identify that Transitional period if you just want to Have a look at a marker to see what this Means because a lot of the time people Get quite excited looking for much Further upside just because the market Is going up but what we've seen in the Past for both of these cycles and you Could take this back to any other mark Pocket as well is that once we hit the Bottoms we obviously have to go through A move that brings us to a golden cross So we've got the purple going above the Green in this case we're getting close To that again and it's probably due Sometime in February if this trend Maintains and if we don't all of a Sudden collapse over the next few days Which looks quite unlikely to happen Over the next few days so providing that Doesn't happen what we've seen in the Past is a lot of volatility and Confusion around who's in control are The balls in control are the bears in Control so going into 2019 and 2020 we Had the Golden Cross where the market Just took off into that peak of June
2019 so basically a breakout in April we Had two really strong months into that Peak which the overall trend took about 300 from the low to the higher the Market went up about 300 percent the Death cross came in then the Golden Cross came in then the death cross came In and then finally there was a another Golden Cross here and that was the the Bull market so how many times that Happened when we had one two three four Five and if you want to take one more Count from the bear Market itself Basically had six crosses of this Particular indicator within that period Let's go back to the previous cycle and We can see that we had the death cross Next was the Golden Cross but was very Short-lived Then followed by another Death cross so that is now three move All the way back down to the low so the Accumulation period here we had another Golden Cross followed by a death cross Followed by the final Golden Cross so Once we actually break into it it's a Nice clear run for basically the entire Move so how many times did that happen Again well we had three at the bottom And three at the top so so far both Times that has been six times that the Market has changed Direction so for Those that use this indicator to Determine the trend of the market this Is bearish this is then bullish then
It's bearish and bullish and so on so It's basically flipping backwards and Forwards this time we also had five but If you want to count the other cross From the bear Market that was six in Total so what have we currently seen Well we had three at the top so far so Maybe we could start the count from the Peaks of the market in uh 2021 and and Then into 2022. so history is to repeat maybe we Have three more times during this Particular we'll call it an accumulation Period of Bitcoin where we may have the Golden cross the death cross the Golden Cross and then the market starts to move In a more clearer Trend but either way This was something that we looked at in Yesterday's video looking at this tweet Here from Michael in these transitional Periods these things take time there is Going to be volatility which is Opportunity if you're trading maybe You're trading on the hourly or the Daily chart there's going to be some Plenty of opportunity there to trade all Coins for some decent profits there Obviously have your plans in play don't Get crazy in the market because Eventually we have a nice clear Trend That forms in the market and that's Where the easier gains are made the Easier gains without a doubt are when The trend is clearly up and we're in
Those screaming bull markets where Basically everyone looks like a hero so Although there is the possibility that The market pulls back it doesn't mean That we have to break the previous lows Healthy Corrections within an Accumulation period are just that They're healthy we want to see those for A sustained up move the worst thing we Want to see is a market going straight Up because if that's the case then we Have to eventually pull back and that Pullback can take a lot of time like we Saw in 2019 and into 2020. this fast Moved out of those lows just meant that We had to move sideways for a long Period of time as well to balance out The timing of the market so My Views Haven't changed overall I'm still Expecting some sort of pullback but I'm Not turning bearish long term there's Been nothing to say that we need to turn Bearish especially on the S P at the Moment there are two key levels that We're watching 38 and that other area of Between 35 and 3 600 points and of Course all bets are off to the downside For the Bears should we break above 4 200 points and consolidate above 4 200 Points if you haven't already like And Subscribe top of the video description Is our free crypto and economic report Which is coming out in about 24 hours Time plus our sale on TIA premium for
Our second birthday so check out the Links in the top of the video Description and of course our Channel Sponsors buy bit bitget and Swift X down Here nearly 50 000 of sign up bonuses You don't want to play leverage no Worries but for the spot Traders out There they have zero percent trading Fees check out those links in the video Description and the videos that are Popping up on your left hand side we're Covering a lot here with the macro cycle Updates across the real estate market Stock markets Commodities and of course Bitcoin and cryptos stay tuned to the Channel I'll be back again real soon Until then peace out
