History Shows Us This Move Will END In PAIN For SP500 & Bitcoin Investors

History Shows Us This Move Will END In PAIN For SP500 & Bitcoin Investors

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FOMO is sweeping Bitcoin, crypto and stocks right now as we lead into the CPI data in a few hours.
The markets are moving as we discussed last week so in this video I want to update where we are at and give my thoughts on what is next.

Note; bitcoin and sp500 are at resistance and will possibly face a coree toon to thr downside in the short term. If this does not occur, and the up trend resumes, it’ll get painful for shorts in thr market.

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This is a chart which is showing many Investors are about to experience some Extreme max pain in the markets we've Been covering this for many months Looking at many of these markets Bottoming throughout this period of Extreme talks of recession and Depression so in today's video I want to Have a look at how this could not end Well for many investors who are banking On a possibility of a major crash in 2023 we've got the s p to go through we Have the collapsing US dollar to Continue covering here as we have done For many many months now looking at this Being the peak in September the vix Which is also falling which is a great Sign for the Bulls and why this is going To be an extreme painful time for many Investors like I've said in 2023. if you Haven't already make sure you go to the Page subscribe like the content up on Remind you again throughout the video if You want to wait to see what sort of Value you're getting from the content Hopefully by now you've been here Through the bear Market you're watching The bottoming process happening in real Time you are seeing the value from the Content so let me know in the comments Section down below your thoughts Comments queries I always love to read Those as well first things first CPI Data it is down 6.5

We've got the old year-on-year numbers We have the core CPI is falling as well You know from the analysis here on the Channel that these are just the effects Of the cycle they're not the causes I understand that's not going to ring True for many other people out there who Focus a lot on the on this particular Data but we focus a lot on the Cycles Here this is your home of Market cycles And if you want to understand how that Works obviously do subscribe to the Channel now the inflation is down the Interest rates will probably go up but Maybe not as much it's what we've been Expecting over the course of uh end of Last year in 2023 So this is all falling into place within The cycle we've got much bigger things To look at as well in terms of the Market sentiment out there it continues To climb and I dare say by the time you See this video I'm recording it 15 Minutes from 10 a.m that is going to be The close time for this we'll see a Higher reading here for the crypto fear Agreed index also this is uh you also See the reading for the market the stock Market fear and greed index will also be Higher as well now this is something That I put out on the channel over a Month ago now these videos are from late November and early December looking at The specific four-year signal that will

Trigger that shift remember the reading We're looking for here is a above 40 on The fear and greed as it shows the Breakout of the downtrend now this isn't The major thing I want to have a look at In today's video but it's important just To keep up to date with these particular Items as I tend to cover them in more Detail in specific videos so that is a Major one here I've also got another Major Video to have a look at and play For you in a minute is this covered it Back on November 24th the major downside The crash of the US dollar with many People still believing that the US Dollars got a lot further to go but we Saw on in September of 2022 why that was Probably not going to be the case and of Course we also have our Tia Gan swing Indicator you can find a link to this in The top of the video description uh You'll see it at the top here for the The new videos now as to why this is the Case when you see major macro breakdowns On this swing indicator it is telling You that the market is turning and it Tells you it before the news turns Before the macro mainstream economics And economists believe it is and the Reason for that is that it has over 100 Years of data and it is backed up by That data and that research over 100 Years worth of reading this particular Chart before we flip to the charts I'm

Going to play you this particular video Here to show you how we were doing that At that time the levels we were looking For for a breakdown remember this is all Part of the probabilities of trading Because there are no guarantees and once You start to see these probabilities Play out then it just starts to swing More in the favor of the direction that You are looking at on the chart what we Want to see for further downside on the US dollar is a close below this Particular line here I'm looking for Around 104.5 as a round number as August Put in a low that's a key level and we Want to see this particular move Continue down however what I am Anticipating is a move to this low level Which is basically the previous low here That was set just a few days ago should We break down from that straight away Then we definitely want to see the Market close below this level here 104.7 and then this little yellow one Here 104.5 that's going to give us some Good weakness to the US dollar confirmed Macro weakness and then give some more Strength to the other markets that we Are following here obviously the the Metals and of course cryptocurrencies so That was a look at the US dollar back in Late November We Now find ourselves Around mid-January and this has Continued to collapse probably at a

Slightly faster rate than I had Anticipated I was expecting a little bit More of a bounce from the US dollar However with the drop of the US dollar Like we talked about many many months Ago this is also allowed other assets And other Commodities which Bitcoin may Be a commodity able to rise from this Point so just overnight we saw the US Dollar continue to fall this is another Percent down going from that 103 down to 102 and that has allowed Bitcoin to also Bump up from that point so it's Important to keep a full holistic view Of what's going on out there in the Market now we're coming up to the next Major support level here this is the the Macro 50 level from the cycle bottom so This is the bull market from January 2021 to the peak of September 2022 and We're hitting that right now basically Called a Denon 102. we have another few major breakdown Levels uh should this continue to weaken And if you start to see the US dollar Fall under these levels and come back And test them as resistance that's going To be even weaker and a faster move to The downside should we break down pop Back above this is going to hold out for The US dollar and maybe we'll start to See a little push back up more than what We've seen in the past we've only seen One week reversals basically this entire

Move down and the last thing I want to Show you here on the US dollar using This signal into Canada again swing Indicator is once you start to see these Monthly swing bottoms break you usually Get a pretty prolonged move to the Downside this is over the course of the History of any Market that you can throw Again swing indicator onto check out the Previous bull market which is the one we Reference a lot because of the 20-year Cycle on the US dollar US dollar going Down in the second half of this cycle Which is looking to peak in the land Values and potentially stock market as Well sometime around mid 20s to the late 2020s you often see the US dollar go Down you get a peak in the stock market Somewhere around the bottom or on the Way to the bottom in the US dollar and Then the cycle turns and reverses the Other way for the USD so you can look Here for the US dollar this is the Tech Rec bubble top so you've got the 2000 2001 2002 the stock markets were also Falling but you can see all all of these Lows through here of course there's one Tiny one here nothing is 100 but you Look at it through this point here that Move up to the peak you get the major Breakdown and the market collapses from That point happens again you've got to Move up a breakdown of the major monthly Swing lows collapse from that point you

Can see the monthly up you can see the Breakdown here Market goes nowhere and Then collapses from that point a Breakdown of all of those monthly swing Bottoms collapse from that point so I Suspect this is happening again and in Terms of our time frames we've measured These before somewhere around that 12 Months to potentially a few years from That point that's for the US dollar Weakening and that is going to lead to More strength to the upside for the Major markets out here which leads me to The major pain For the investors out there Bitcoin and Potentially the stock market as well and More so the stock market and what's Currently occurring on the s p is Another move back to the down trend line But in this case this is potentially a Higher swing low forming here on on the Medium term here we're on the weekly Chart we throw it onto the the monthly We don't have that monthly swing bottom Just yet but we could start to see those In the course of the first half of 2022. The main thing here and the main pain That we could see from investors is once We get back to this trend line up here Maybe we don't see the big collapse that A lot of people are expecting maybe we Start to see a smaller collapse which We've talked about potentially happening In that sort of march-ish period

Remember we're on the macros here and we Start to see it move back above and a Break above the down trend line we have Tested this once twice Three times this is potentially the Fourth time and so we're starting to Wear this line out and investors are Starting to see potentially some higher Lows here especially from this October To December period as well and we're Also seeing that in the put and calls Ratio so de-trended put and call ratio Here basically a lot of retail a lot of Investors are betting on the market Going down heavier this is the highest Reading of put um put buyers here in the Entire history of this chart so a lot of People are expecting the market to go Down and if that doesn't happen and we Get that breakout above and you know a Higher low form and a move to the upside This could be extremely painful for Those sellers in the market we see that Often in Bitcoin where you get the short Squeezes people see the market starting To head up and they start to see Resistance and they try to short the Market as it goes up but you don't get That push to the downside so those short Sellers get crushed out of the market as They have to cover their positions and To cover they need to buy and of course When you buy you have the buyers buying And the sellers having to buy to cover

Themselves you get that pretty quick uh Squeeze to the upside so pay attention To that let's see if that comes out in The next few weeks over the last several Videos we've been covering the vix make Sure you do subscribe and like the Content on the channel so you can stay Up to date with the macro analysis here With the vix it's a really interesting Chart to identify the bottoms and Whether we're moving into a bull market Almost every single time you see this Thing spike it happens at around very Significant lows in the market you've Got 2008 here you've got March 2009 Which which was the cycle low for the s P you've got March 2020 which is Obviously the covert crash low there now We start to break down and every time we Move into these sorts of low volatile File patterns here on the chart is Usually when the Market's either Trending up or not trending at all and So we're starting to see the major Breakdown here as we covered just in the Last few days as well as this Market Began to break down on guess where the Monthly swing indicator here you can see The bottoms are breaking down now and it Looks like the vix wants to drop back Into this Zone below the 17 and trade Between 11 and 17 which historically has Been a pretty good space for the s p to Begin to climb again as for Bitcoin we

Are definitely running into this buying Frenzy right now you can see each of the Bars is getting larger and larger with a Straight move to the upside this is not What you want to see for a prolonged Move you definitely want to see some Small moves up and a correction occur With a higher low this is far more Sustainable in the market as we start to Climb to higher prices what's happened Now is seeing a lot of fomo in the Market I'm not saying that the Bitcoin Bear Market is off or the bull Market's Off or one's only one's off I definitely See us in an accumulation period at the Moment because of the factors we've Looked at over the last six to seven Months since there's June low has come In but definitely in the short term You're starting to see that hockey stick Move to the upside and this usually ends In tears people are getting fomo because They missed out on buying Bitcoin at 16 At 17 they're going to see this pullback We get to 18 and then very quickly from 18 it scoots to 19. so that pulls a lot Of people who have been sitting on the Sidelines the news has started to blow It up we've seen Bitcoin trending across Australia and the world and so this Brings in a lot of armchair investors And Traders who want to catch the trend So that's for a recovery on bitcoin we Can now get rid of this slow recovery

Painful grind provided we don't break Back below 17 thousand dollars we're Basically into this average recovery and The nice thing about this close now is That we are now back above that critical Uh previous support which had turned Resistance back in December and Potentially we're going to start our Multi-day Consolidation above that 18 and a half Thousand dollar level this is a great Sign for that next stage of the Accumulation we're seeing that the Demand is increasing compared to the Supply of the market supply had been Pretty heavy and was absolutely Destroying the market we're not there Yet we need multi-days of closing data Above This price to confirm that we are Into that next stage of the flip Basically confirming that accumulation Period because without that we could Slip back down into these ranges again Back below the 18 back below the 17 and Potentially test that 15K again if that Happens then we're probably going to Have to come back down and test these Lower prices squeeze out all of these Armchair traders who are trying to get On the trend too late they will sell Because they they get fearful again and Then we have to see where this next low Comes in so there's there is those two Potentials right now in the market

Because of how fast it is pushed up the The speed of these moves and how Straight they go causes much weakness in The market unfortunately many retail Investors believe this is a sign of Strength and markets go straight up but They've shown time and time again this Is a cause of much weakness you want a Nice firm base to form and some nice Stair stepping structure to then build Us back to those higher prices another Couple of things that we've seen macro Here is natural gas continue to collapse Over the last several months and it Always happens from those Peak fear Levels at the peak of the market when The media tells us that Europe is going To freeze wait till winter comes Everything is going who turns South and No one's going to be able to forward Anything and we're going to end up in a Major depression this was the talk of The media back around the middle of 2022 Since then gas is absolutely collapsed Down to around 350 from a peak of 10. And the other thing which is interesting To note and this is something I'm going To throw in there for you guys who want A little bit of extra study we have some Of the world's biggest mining companies Hitting new all-time high prices this is BHP Billiton you can see this traded Across Australia the UK and the US it is Across all of those stock markets it has

Recently in the last few days hit a new All-time high price Companies hitting new to all-time high Prices usually doesn't occur in Bear Markets in deep recessions so we can Look at this in future videos do make Sure you subscribe and like the content On the channel bringing you the entire Macro picture here stock market really Estate cycle and of course Cryptocurrencies so we can learn how to Better profit from these markets check Out the links in the top of the video Description all of those shield things That you love to hear on YouTube you Know the drill buy bit and bitget also Still offering massive bonus signups uh During this bear market I'll see you Guys back here on the channel at the Next video Until Then peace out

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