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Welcome back to the channel your home of Macro cycle analysis on crypto Bitcoin Stocks and the real estate market Today's video we're looking at a Specific signal that comes towards the End of bear markets this is called the End of the bear Market in Bitcoin once Twice and potentially this could be the Third time that we're seeing the signal Play out that's what we want to look at In today's video so make sure you do Stick around watch the video through to The end and hit that like And subscribe Button you want to see the value I get It I'll remind you again at the end of The video on top of this signal here we Have two other major signals that end Bear markets we've covered these on the Channel but it's a good idea to go Through these again as we get close to The end of this Market it's important to Remember we're not trying to call the Bottom of a market we never try and call It Bottom never try and call a top Remember what happened through the band Market and the the previous bull markets As well where influencers any other Talking Heads Are online start to call For significant price targets to the Upside hundred thousand dollars to the Downside maybe it's ten thousand dollars Sometimes these figures will just never Happen and that causes a lot of pain to The unsuspecting viewer or new person to
Investing and so we're never trying to Do this our goal in investing is to take A chunk of profits out of the middle This is what the professionals talk About they just talk about taking their Profits holding it in cash and waiting For another opportunity cash is not Trash as we have first-handedly Experienced through 2022 we often get those calls at the Tops of the markets same sort of thing We get at the bottom we're expecting Lower prices everyone hold on to your Cash and it's usually the opposite of Course we don't know exactly when the Bottom is we look for signals to let us Know that the markets are possibly in The process of flipping so the the first Major signal we want to look at in Today's video is using the swing Indicator you may have seen me use this On the channel before you can get a look At it here the Tia again swing indicator This is always under development we're Continuing to improve it along the way But right now it is based on our Gan Analysis our Gan rules and it works Remarkably well to get you into markets Early on and get you out of markets nice And safe this tool is what our members Use and it's basically the premise of Our entire trading plan you can see here That it helps you get into the market And stay with the market almost until
The very end and you can almost get Right to the Peaks not trying to call The tops but get close to those pigs on Different time frames but in this video I want to make it nice and simple and Just look at it on a macro time frame Here and start to look at just some Simple timing within this particular Indicator if you you want to get a Access to it it's in the top of the Video description that second link there TI again swing indicator the price rise Is coming soon so if you want to check It out click that link go through this Page learn more about it before the Price Rises I'll talk about the swing Indicator a lot almost to the point of a Shill because it helps me in my trading So much this is the premise of my Trading and our members as well but Enough said about that let's have a look At how this thing works and how this is A bear Market ending indicator we've got The swing type here two bars how does This thing work well these are the Candles this is on a weekly chart the Macro picture here remember we want to Understand the macro picture to give us Some more macro turns whether it's the Bottom or the top and in this case we Want to make it nice and simple we're Looking at these white bars not our Colored children's crayons here the Candles the white bars nice and simple
Nice and clean on the chart and all we Want to note is how many times we've Seen a turn on this chart and the turns Come from the tops exceeding the Previous tops and then they'll spin to The downside when the bottom of the bar Exceeds the previous bottom as you can See right now whether the market is We've exceeded the previous bottom Therefore the swing turns down the Second thing we have with this Particular indicator is that it won't Just swing on one move so one week so We're going even more macro we're Looking at a two-week swing indicator Here so it needs to have two weeks to The upside and two weeks to the downside In order for the indicator to create a Swing and so this gives us less false Signals as you can see here in this Particular run one small false signal Which we can also cover with some clean Set of filter rules as well but for this Video we just want to count each of These swings to the upside because this Then lets us know about how much time we Have left in the particular move to the Downside each of these swings is Basically lead the market in a macro Sense going against the trend you can See the trend was down here into November and that low into December and Then we had a counter swing move here to The upside so basically a rally in this
In the start of the bear Market to the Downside we had that drop again a rally Another drop another rally and then a Much bigger drop and so we can see quite Clearly and very very quickly here if we Turn off the bars altogether just the Time to the downside on linear is Getting less and less and also the moves To the downside are becoming less and Less this was the last major move to the Downside on the FTX news and you can see In terms of price how much smaller that Was compared to something like May and June when we had the collapse of Luna And UST so even though FTX may have Affected more people lost more money in The market as well you can see them move On bitcoin was actually less and it Shows it very very simply very very Quickly so then you can action the Signals quite efficiently and you're not Caught up in a whole lot of analysis Paralysis this is really really easy to Use all right so the next thing we're Looking at is how many times we had the Swings to the downside as we've counted Out here so far we have one two three Four five and this is our sixth swing Right now in the previous Cycles what Have we seen off for Bitcoin so we have The 2018 bear Market we're just going to Throw it on log as well to give us a bit More data in here we have one swing to The upside a second swing to the upside
Third fourth fifth in capitulation sixth Swing to the upside and then the bull Market of 2019. basically just in time For that Bitcoin harvesting in 2020 so This basically called the end to the Bear Market we did have some lower Prices it was higher than the Capitulation lows but we did see the Market hold up at these levels for quite Some time barring the pandemic crash low Which was only there for one two three Four weeks before it started to move Back into that territory of six to seven Thousand dollars and then of course the Rest is history from that point we go on Another bull market nice swings to the Upside easy places to enter put your Stops underneath these levels write it To the top put your stops underneath These levels get stopped out make a nice Chunk of profits in the middle Essentially we're here to talk about the End of the bear market so we've seen Here already one two three four five six Swings to the upside before the market Broke out and went on a nice little bear Market Rally or start of a new bull Market whichever way you want to see This as a potential re-accumulation Going back to the previous bull market And then subsequent bear Market in 2014 One swing two swings three swings four Swings five and then the breakout quick Dump and the market started to move away
From that point on other charts this Particular low here did not exceed the Previous low so it just depends on which Exchange you're looking at but overall We also saw one two three four five and On the sixth attempt it broke the swing Tops and then the seventh here we had The final breakout and consolidation Before the move to the bull market began So you could look back here and say one Two three four five six and then on the Seventh you're basically out of this Entire accumulation Zone before we had The re-accumulation and move to the Upside whereby looking specifically at This indicator could have entered at These tops held stops underneath these Levels because we do need to sell at the End of this this is not uh dollar cost Average in hold forever you've got the Lows Move your stops up move the stop up the Stop is essentially your safety net to Exit the market move the stop up move The stop up and you can move the stop up To this level now of course we can get Into more detail of how you can get Closer to the top but that's beyond the The scope of this particular video here What you can see is there is a nice Clean easy chunk of profits to be made Out of the middle of that market and This will continue forward as well so Looking at our current move again now
That we've looked at the two previous Cycles approximately five to seven Swings to the upside before we get a Nice move that breaks a lot of these Particular tops where again one two Three four five six swings to the upside Now it doesn't have to repeat exactly Maybe we do see another couple of swings At these levels but either way this is Getting very very close to the end of This particular move in the market Because of how many times the market has Attempted to rally and then to the Downside how much shorter the moves to The downside is getting as well when the Moves to the downside are shorter that Essentially means that there are less And less people selling this is a Tell-Tale sign that we are getting far Less people selling than what we had Done at the beginning of the market of Course you can easily see that from the Price and how far the movements to the Downside and that is really telling here Because we had an extreme event of FTX Collapsing a major cryptocurrency Exchange collapsing and the market only Went from 21 000 to 15 000. in the past That was just another day or week on Bitcoin and this was one of the most Major events that ever occurred and it Didn't even collapse the market to those Extreme targets of say ten thousand or Eight thousand or six thousand dollars
So now we just play the waiting game and On top of that waiting game is a day Count so we've gone through the macro Swing brakes we're looking for a break Of these particular macro swings to the Upside ideally around this level of 2122 Or 25 000 and then for the day counts We're getting very close again to what We've seen in previous Cycles something We have covered here on the channel many Times the first Circle here for uh 2014 We have 411 days you can see that from the top To the bottom 411 days from the peak to That low here as I said this low did not Occur on all exchanges so we use this Low as the cycle low the next cycle was In 2018 363 days basically almost exactly one Year top to bottom 363 days and at the Moment with the current low being middle Of November 376 days as the peak was around early November so this could still lead out Into January maybe for another bottom as Well and that would still be well within The timing of all previous Cycles which Means that lines up very very well with The previous cycles and of course the Harvesting event coming up in 2024. That's a look at the day count and we've Covered the macro swing brakes here and The last thing is the bear Market Downtrend that is basically connecting
The tops of these entire moves before we Get the breakout like we've seen in the Past connecting those tops once that Market does break out it usually Coincides with a number of other signals The other signals obviously being the Break of those swing Tops This was the Breakout of the bear Market downtrend See this is the move down it also Coincides with the timing of the low Looking at that particular day count as Well so we're getting very close to that Move this is the bear Market downtrend On a logarithmic scale and Bitcoin was Getting slightly close to it it dropped Away again with the FTX Scandal and it's Now attempting to get back to closer Towards that logarithmic downtrend However on the linear scale we did break Out of it a couple of months ago now to Bring some color back into our life as We look at how the market tested the top Side of that bear Market downtrend you Can see that the Rangers have got gotten Smaller against this is also a sign of a Bottom pattern forming topping patterns Are often seen with extreme volatility So big wide fluctuations as this catches A lot of new investors out they Basically try to catch these bottoms and Move to the upside you know in the hopes Of higher prices and this is the Smart Money selling out the downside is often Seen as lower volatility like we could
See in the past where a lot of people Have left the market and this is the Time for accumulation so we have a Number of patterns all coming together Here sure the market could break lower But the timing is starting to run out Here for these potential moves to the Downside along with these move to the Downside we do need another extreme Event and it seems like the media is Trying to push more extreme events at us In the likes of more fun around binance Or Gemini and Genesis and grayscale Trust so if none of these news items can Come to fruition probably within the Next one to two months then you could Probably push those aside saying that They may not happen and we can look to Start afresh for that next cycle so They're still there at the moment but The cycle is running out in terms of Time for them to push any of these Narratives and get something else to Break this is just part of the new cycle And the market sentiment so the last two Bear Market cycles for BTC the swings Have called the end of the bear Market Once these swings have broken to the Upside that's the end of the bear Market However the news is still going to be Very very negative so don't let that put You off follow the chart follow these Swings and how they are forming in the Market of course we'll continue to
Updated here on the channel but if you Want to get your hands on the Tia Ganswing indicator before the price Rises link is in the top of that video Description check it out down there Check out the tool learn more about it So you can implement it in your own Trading you can see how beautiful it Works to the upside when these bull Markets really do get going keeps people Very very safe in the markets check it Out Link in the description and for the Traders Among Us check out the links to Buy bit and bitget as they're still Giving away 39 000 of sign up bonuses Use those links in the video description And follow the procedure in order to Claim those bonuses thanks very much Have a Merry Christmas like And Subscribe if you found some value from It and I'll see you back here extremely Soon until then peace out
