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Welcome back to the channel your home of Market Cycles looking at cryptocurrency Stocks and of course real estate Bringing that holistic picture together For the investor today's video let's Continue to dive into the macro analysis Of the s p we have a ton of charts to Get through including things on the fix Of course the s p and a few other pieces Of the puzzle here looking at how Extreme the bearishness has been at These lower prices so first up make sure You have like the video subscribe to the Channel if you find Value from it and of Course I'll remind you at the end of the Video too if you want to wait around to See what value you're getting from the Video the tools we'll be using are in The top of the video description we also Have our crypto and economic report Which is now out check out the link at The top of the video and the Gan swing Indicator the second link in that video Description let's start with the vix and A big indicator here tends to be when we See the vix rise basically going from These lower prices to higher prices here We start to get lower prices on the S P So as the vix the volatility index goes Up that tends to coincide with prices Coming down this time however we've seen Prices on the vix come down you can see These last few days have all started to Drop off meaning that volatility is
Dropping off however we're also seeing The price of the s p fall as well this Could mean a couple of things the main Thing I'm looking at here is it could Mean that the volatility is dropping off Because the market is front running this And expecting higher prices and of Course it could be a bias to the upside So we want to get through that in this Video we are seeing a lot of signals to Say that this is a bottoming process and We've said this for many many months and The price has not gone anywhere despite The amount of fear in the market you've Probably heard me say that for months And people are wondering when is this Going to happen It's not going to happen for some time This is just how bottoming processes Form especially when we have such Extreme pessimism and bearishness in the Markets the main retail and some of the Previous smart money is really expecting Much further downside in these markets However something is holding it up we've Seen it time and time again we had a Bottom in May another bottom in June a Quick rise another bottom in October Which may in fact be the cycle bottom Here for this bear market and we will be Coming into another bottom we're either Expecting that late in this quarter or In the first quarter of 2023 so where Does that bottom form we'll wait and see
But the main thing is there is Extreme Pessimism which is what we want to look At in a lot of the charts in today's Video and when we see extreme pessimism Without the prices falling further it Generally means one massive thing we Will get a turn eventually but we just Have to be patient Provided these lows remain intact this Is going to be a good sign for the Bulls When we in fact do break out so that's The first thing that we have here the Vix heading down the stock market also Heading down but what we tend what we've Seen in the past is when the vix heads Up we usually see much lower down prices So this is quite different to what we've Seen in the past and just as a little Reading here what's happened before this Has only happened once since 1990 has It's been pointed out here by Matt the Forward returns from this time when the Vix went down and the s p went down the Ford returns after this point here were One month after 25 three months after 39 6 months 48 and 12 months 75 but do note That the low in this period where this Actually happened was 2020 in the covert Crash low so it was a very steep Decline And a very fast recovery at that point I Do not expect that we'll get these sorts Of returns from this period from what We're what we're seeing here with the Vix going down and the s p going down
Meaning that they're expecting higher Prices I don't think these sort of Returns will happen because we're not at An extreme case like what happened in 2020 with the the pandemic low another Interesting indicator here is the Extreme bearish sentiments this is a Rolling 54-week average basically a Rolling year average year the last time This happened it's exactly the same as Last time it was the bottoming process Of the Great Recession or something That's called the great financial crisis Or the GFC that's 2008 2009 the bearish Sentiment of a rolling 54-week average 45 so the 45 of the bearish sentiment Was in this instance right here that Happened to be the exact bottom it Marked the bottom of that period there And the market took off from that point We're now at that exact point yet again All of these pieces on their own don't Mean that the exact bottom is in they Just are leaning towards that there is a Very high probability that we are seeing A bottoming pattern form just like it Did in 2008 2009 a period took about Five to six months going from one bottom To the next bottom we saw the second Bottom in March of 2009 however the October low that formed on the s p in 2008 was very very close to that Previous low or the following low in March 2009 so essentially all of the
Losses had already happened in the Market so while people were still at the Most fearish that they had been the most Bearish that they had been the next low Only just took out the previous low and Then ran away without them so we tend to See the most extreme bearishness at Lowe's it's just the way the market is It's how Market sentiment forms you must See extreme bearishness at Lowe's Otherwise you wouldn't get a low Following the barrier sentiment looking At a few other charts and indicators we Have the fear and greet index here now It's only got a Year's worth of data There's C and n as well the interesting Point to note here is the extreme fear That happened in the market in relation To the lows we have the May low in 2020 Of this year we also had a June low and Then of course the September October low In the markets and you can see that the Bearishness basically the fear has been Rising throughout this period even Though the prices had been coming down And if we look at it on the S P the Prices aren't that much different to What they were back in May it's Basically the exact same price as it was At that Malo so we're getting a bit of a Divergence here in two ways the first Way is the fear is lessening meaning That we're getting a little bit more Greedy at these lower prices people are
Seeing the lower prices come in time and Time again and are willing to buy at Slightly higher prices now as we can see That the market is putting in a couple Of higher lows not confirmed yet yes we Could go a little bit lower but these Main lows here in May and June the Market is now trading above those Particular prices as well looking at it In a slightly different way here U.S Investor sentiment percentage that are Bearish we had the highest level of Bearishness just back in September June And April basically looking into that First week of May where we had that Fresh now the bearishness has dropped Off and we're obviously seeing the Prices go up a little here we had the Extreme bearishness in September last Couple of weeks and then we had the Bearishness drop off in October where The low has actually formed you can see This low right here that was the 13th of October low and the extreme bearishness Was actually on the way down then the Fear happened to leave the market the Market has now jumped up from that point Another interesting Factor about this Chart is the fear in the market has Actually been more extreme than what it Was at the pandemic low this is the Pandemic low here in middle of March and The perishness at the moment is far Higher it is even sitting just
Underneath what it was back at the Pandemic low but as you can see from the Price chart we are a long way from that Particular low meaning the fare is still Around this is what we're expecting at Bear Market bottoms basically we were Still in that part of the cycle where The market is down however the main Prices have been holding up above where The market previously had its Significant lows and in terms of the s p It's coming out beautifully on the 50 Level basically the halfway point from The March low to the January Top in Terms of Gan analysis this is a Perfectly balancing market for it to run Up and then find support at the exact Halfway point of the move to the upside What also coincides with this low price Are previous tops where the market was Trying to break out of the previous All-time high and so far we've found This as support so the market is Basically perfectly balanced at that Point at that lowest point with the most Extreme fear yet the price is now higher It's dead on that 50 level now a few More charts to get through here so I'll Move my face to the side essentially This one is looking at the fund flow Combined total we have excessive Pessimism with the dotted Green Line Excessive optimism and we're also seeing A Divergence here so five period moving
Average is this light green line in the Middle and then we're seeing a Divergence with the amount of funds Flowing in and out we have extreme Pessimism so that is right here as the Market was Finding its low point and Then the funds started to come back in While the price Was dropping and we're also starting to See that yet again we're seeing a low Point and then a higher low Point here And the prices have basically begun to Bottom out and continue to rise from That point when the funds are underneath This extreme pessimism it's not long Before they start to see prices rise so This is in the stock market the black Line here and the funds continue in and Out of the market as it continues to Climb most often we see these Market Lows and if we have a chart out that is A very specific low here in around 2011. You can see that it also had funds Flowing out at the bottoms before the Market then started decided to move up Again and start to put in higher and Higher prices throughout the s p covid Crash low happen very very quickly the Money was late to exit and late to Return and that has put a massive swing In the market here so we're trying to Find some equilibrium again as the money Printers stop and as the interest rates Start to increase it looks like we're
Starting to balance out here with the Higher lows again and essentially the Money is looking like it is coming back Into the market so you can see the funds Flowing back in here positive RSI Divergence on the weekly chart here so Similar looking sort of Divergence 2008 2009 you can see the bottom here the RSI Divergence and then we also had lower Prices while the RSI was increasing same Sort of dealer in 2015 2016. that was a Significant time in the market although It doesn't look like much now this Particular period here did last for Several months a lot of people were Fearful that we're going to get another Collapse and the market just didn't Happen to do that next we see our Current location in the market a little Bit of a Divergence forming here you can See a higher reading on the RSI and the Prices are slightly lower of course this Is just a few weeks old now so we've Seen the price already rise and then Pull back a little from this point so Could this also be another signal of the Lows forming like it has done in a Couple of the previous major instances Here on the S P the global financial Crisis the Great Recession and then the Major Market drawdown of 2015 into 2016. Corporate Insider selling also looking Like it's at a turning point here you've
Got some lows with a big rally another Low in 2016 another rally Insider Selling is exhausted at these particular Low levels so the Insiders are finished With their selling markets rally could This be another opportunity here we've Got the market forming this bottom here Insider selling exhausted are we about To head straight up Time will tell but essentially these Don't always go straight to the moon Like we could see here a little bit of a Time up slight pullback and then a test And we go again remember this is 2016 so We're leading into the election year as Well each of those individual charts Doesn't mean that the market has to go In that direction but when we start to Put all of the evidence together looking At the chart as well this is the main Thing that we trade off especially with The Tia Gan swing indicator here to give Us indications of the market Trend then We start to see the holistic picture of The market and things may not be as bad As the the media is making out however For a bottom to form it has to feel and Look that bad just like the same thing Happens at the tops the market has to Look extremely bullish like we're going To go into new all-time high after new All-time high with a lot of positivity In the market however that tends to Mark The tops and so we're starting to see
The same thing at at the bottom how long Does this last look I've put a couple of Calls out there to be around quarter one And I'm not saying that the market has To hold this exact 3 500 but it would be A very nice balancing Point our downside Is somewhere 32 probably around the Worst case but in saying that there is Still a good case that 3500 holds up Either way it is still within a pretty Good position for a bottom formation Pattern to be forming at this time in The market before we see a final Breakout and then over the coming years Move to higher prices or at least Testing the previous old all-time high Around 4 800 points now I've got a hep Of information and content about the Macro cycle in real estate and of course Stocks that's going to be coming up on The channel as well over this holiday Period make sure you have liked and Subscribed to the channel hopefully you Found a ton of value from the content And if you're interested in that Tia Again swing indicator the price is going Up on that indicator soon so make sure You get in and check that out right now Before those increases and get yourself Grandfathered into the lower price for That particular indicator there's a Second link in the top of the video Description and if you want other Cryptocurrency exchanges check out Bible
Links are in the video description as Well speaking of cryptocurrency our last Market want to look at here is of course BTC and since that little top came in on The 14th of December we've had several Days to the downside with that bottom at The 19th the main level yet again is Around 17 and a half thousand call it Seventeen thousand six hundred the BTC Needs to at least find some stability Over that's what happened in that first Time when we attempted to break past it And hold above it you can see from the Candles that we had one one major day Close and that second day was a very Weak close big move up and a fall to the Downside so even though we're talking About bottom patterns forming here in The market with the s p Bitcoin is still Struggling to push any higher at this Point now it is a similar price to where It was back at that June just with a lot More fear around everyone believing that It has to go to much lower prices However it's still holding up relatively Well at around this 16k so don't take Your eyes off crypto especially into This next stage of the real estate cycle Some of these will do very very well so Make sure you are following the charts So you can see which ones are performing And which ones are probably the Coins that need to be just kicked to the Side of the road that's all I have for
You in today's macro Outlook of the s p And of course another update of Bitcoin As we continue to Trend sideways between This 15 and 18 000 stick around I've got More crypto content coming up on the Channel plus all the other macro stuff That is right here on your left hand Side like subscribe and I'll see you Back here on the channel your home of Macro Cycles crypto real estate and Stocks have a great one catch you then Peace out
