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Tops and bottoms of markets are the most Difficult time to be in a market we get Very conflicting views of what is Happening around the lows with most of The negative news coming out at the Bottoms and the same thing happens at The tops with most of the positive news Coming around at the tops telling us why We need to remain in the market for Longer so as investors how do we sort Through this noise and how do we find Out whether the smart money is buying And whether we are going to get left Behind in the next stage of the cycle Let's have a look at how the smart money Is disguising they're purchasing of Stocks in today's video looking at many Of these signals that are coming through On the breadth and also the moving Averages we're also going to take a look At what is happening with the market Psychology along with the market Sentiments so don't go anywhere Smash Up The like button if you like the change Of t-shirt here going from a green to a White if you don't let me know and and Drop a comment down below while you're There top of the video description is Our free crypto and economic report Coming out this week so subscribe to That you'll get that sent to your email Inbox and finally here the last of the Shells five bit bit get thousands of Dollars of sign up bonuses during this
Transitional period use those links down Below as we have trading strategies uh Designed solely for users of these Particular links and many of our Students are using that to be making Profits in their crypto trading right Now so let's dive into today's video We're going to look at Bitcoin with some Of the news out here we're going to look At the news that's coming out from the Fed this week because all of this stuff Is essentially a whole lot of noise that Plays into the psychology of a market And we need to remain as Vigilant as Possible and just look at the data that Is coming through as this hopefully Gives us some signals on how to start Playing the market next of course I have My bias in the market how I'm playing The market as an investor I've been in The markets for over 16 years now I Bought my first property in 2006 and Started trading in 2010 and then in Crypto in early 2017. so this is what I Have experienced I will give you my Opinion at the end of the video but I Want to go through the data first up Looking at what can we expect this week In terms of volatility and the noise Which the market will start to turn its Attention towards first up is Tuesday Morning Valentine's Day Happy Valentine's joining you guys that are Celebrating
CPI data coming out Tuesday morning for The guys in the US and obviously the Evening for us over here in Australia Wednesday same sort of thing more U.S Data looking at this red little Forex Factory signals here this is a stuff That could be volatile for the market Core retail sales retail sales month Over month and the signals or the Outcomes that the market is expecting we Have the previous reading the forecast And the actual and so we want to make Sure that the market hits around those Forecasts and nothing too crazy now the Final one here for Thursday so Thursday Morning and Thursday evening for us is Core PPI month over month they're the Things to be watching out for this week For the volatility I'm not going to go Into too much more with that because at The end of the day like we've seen many Times before for the last couple of Years The FED comes out talks about something Here The Market reacts short term good Trading opportunities and then the cycle Continues on like it always has done so Let's look at the the data the objective Stuff here another great post here from Seth if he's watching let me know in the Comments section now this one here is Looking at 50 EMA cycle so this is the Stocks that are going uh from negative 10 to greater than 85 percent
Essentially what this is reading is the Percentage of stocks that are above Their 50 exponential moving average uh Cycle from below 10 to greater than 85 So if there was less than 10 of stocks On the New York Stock Exchange less than 10 percent uh that we're going above Their 50 EMAs and now that's spun to Over 85 of the stock so say 10 out of 100 were above their 52 week oh they're 50 EMAs and now that there are 85 out of 100 this is typically a good signal that We're about to see uh the start of a Bull market now this only goes back 20 Years going to 2002 when we got the the Bottoms on the stock market so 2002 Looking at the data right here and then In 2003 when they started to swing to More than 85 percent going above their 50 EMAs that was the start of the bull Market we can see that it basically Trended all the way through the 2007. obviously the market had a big Crash from that point 2009 there was the Bottom so less than 10 percent of stocks Nearly zero percent of stocks were going Above their 50 EMA And then that swung the other way to Going above 85 which then led to that First start of the bull market had it Again in 2011 into 2012 bull market and Then obviously we know the bull market Continued on from that point so many Times in history this has occurred and
It was the start of the bull market but Remember it has to go from the bottom to The top you have to see those stocks go From almost no stocks hitting new highs Or going above their moving averages to The majority the vast majority of stocks In this case it's over 85 of stocks Going above their moving average which Is then the signal that potentially We've bottomed in this case it says it's Bottom every time but within the next Six to 12 months we've had a positive Rate this is just reading the data and We've just seen it happen here from the Low that we got in 2022 To the top we've just seen recently in The early part of 2023 so we've just hit That same sort of signal there we could See it earlier on here in the middle of 2022 to that first Peak that was Probably August and if we look at the Chart that's going back to this one Right here so this is one of those Signals that didn't essentially play out But like I've looked at many times Before this to me has been the Transitional period that we've Experienced since probably around that May bottom more likely the June bottom So the market transitioning from extreme Bears to the flip and potentially going Into you know a bull a new bull market So that was one of those times there Where the market didn't flip into a new
Bull market straight away but note where The next bottom came in only barely Lower than the June bottom and since That point we've bounced away from that As well if it's wrong this data is wrong Here and the probabilities end up being A smaller possibility that we'd don't go Higher maybe we see the market drop into A higher low which then stalls this Reading for a little longer before we Start to get that reading again if You've been following me on Twitter you Know that I'll be posting about the UK Stock market I know most of us are Interested in the US or Australia or Crypto but this is important to look at The stock markets which are hitting new All-time highs so we often see it in This data where stocks are hitting new All-time highs or at least in this case New 50 EMA Highs but what we're seeing Here is the entire stock market of the UK hitting New Heights sure we've had a Correction over the last couple of days Two days of last week it hit a new All-time high this is not the sort of Stuff that we expect to see in the Biggest bull traps of all time in Bear Markets this is just the data that's Coming out it's hitting new prices and Basically the thought of the market Going to a new all-time high at any of These major Bottoms in 2022 it was Almost impossible could you imagine
Thinking that that your stock market was Going to go to an new all-time high Within about 12 months from the Russia Invading Ukraine or from this October Low could you imagine that it was going To go to a new all-time high in those in Those few months not many people did This is what has actually happened not Just my opinion this one is looking at The industry breadth so this is Basically stocks that have gone from There under their 200-day average to Above their 200 day average so Percentage of stocks that are doing this Now I'm going to move my head out of the Way and we're just looking at the Occasions that this has happened Basically over the last seven years you Can see they have to go from their lows To hitting this reading here at around 90. so percentage being 90. that is Number of stocks in the s p that were Hitting 200-day averages And there was less than 10 percent it Ran to over 90 or touched thereabouts 90 And in that case the market basically Moved up from that point so that's what This is trying to indicate that when we Go from a big move from the majority of Stocks under their 200-day average to Then flipping quite quickly going above Their 200-day average you tend to get a Bit more of this run on into a new high Or at least the the bull market
Continuing on where you're better to be On the long side than the short side you Can see again here in 2020 this is the Pandemic low Market raced away made the Signal that the market was ready to go Up this was about September October of 2020 and we know from that point that The marketers took off into that peak of January of 2022 so really needed to be In the market all of 2021 but remember At this time people were still calling For the market to collapse because of How fresh the pandemic was in everyone's Mind and if you remember back to this Period this was like the second outbreak And then the third outbreak and then the Fourth outbreak and it was just outbreak After outbreak and we're going to lock Down again and lock down again and Basically the market didn't care it just Kept going up from that point so it's Important to just read the data that's On the charts check out the signals that The data is giving us and play the Probabilities on our side it doesn't Have to happen 100 of the time but when We look at the data long enough we can See that the probabilities tend to play Out in our favor if we are just willing To read those signals you can see it Went under and now just now and the last Week we are just nearly hitting that 90 On this reading here so this is the Level that we're waiting for the market
To hit for the signal so that's a good Time to bring up the Wall Street cheat Sheet the psychology of a market we know From history how crazy markets can get To the the upside but if you went around In 2019 or 2020 say for the crypto or Bitcoin markets you would have missed Out on the feelings through the Beginning of that market the old Depression then into the disbelief maybe Even into the hope and this is all Masked as the possibility of it just Being complacency with any sort of drop Down Being called anxiety denial Panic even Though the market is climbing higher With higher lows so right now we could Just be in this sort of area around this Depression I know many are calling for It to be around anger where we're just About to bounce and then fall back into A low but overall if we're using this as Any sort of guide the pricing is Probably around where we need it to be For a low and the timing although it Might not be exact is probably around That timing as well for us to be going Through some sort of accumulation the Disbelief stages typically where the Majority of the Bears who are waiting For all of these type of events to occur Get absolutely wrecked because they're Still waiting for this Market to creep Lower and lower and get back to the
Prices of where it was previously now of Course this is mainly subjective like There's not really a way to identify This to a t but the best way we've found Is using the crypto fear and greed index Now I've noted before that 60 has been a Pretty reasonable level of resistance For the Market that's exactly what we're Seeing again I don't mean to be on the Old exactly as we expected but when You're looking at a chart just looking At the support and resistance it's Pretty hard not to see where some of the Support and resistance lines are I Understand if you're starting out it can Be a little bit tricky so just pay Attention to what the data has done Previously and start to get aware of Where these angles and support and Resistance lines are coming in take a Look at how the higher lows are forming Like we were anticipating during this Low we can see the June low and then the November low was getting higher in the Sentiment of the market what people were Feeling and experiencing even though FTX Took out a lot of people at that time it Was showing that the the downside was Probably over because people were still Looking to buy in the markets and they Were becoming less fearful and starting To creep back up into that sort of Neutral feel about the market like we've Seen now we've hit greed last week and
Would just slip back into neutral as the Market takes a few days off from those Peaks at around 60. just like we chart Bitcoin crypto stock markets anything With a chart we do the same thing using The crypto fear and greed index looks Like a double top if this Market doesn't Come all the way back down into an Extreme fear then we could expect that Their higher low is formed and a Breakout of those levels would then Induce even more greed into the market Like we saw back in 2019 you can see There's a bit of congestion around here Again that mid 50s to 60s and in this Case we did hit the 70s a few times Going into that Peak that happened in June right there you can see that the Market did have quite quite some Volatility within the feelings before we Finally hit that top and then the market Had to reset itself come back and test Those extreme fear levels again before We go into that major bull market so There's still a fair bit more time here But just to note in the short term Compared to the long term that maybe we Do see some more downside in the motions But look at where this low comes in are We going to get a higher low form here Or can the market break through this Level that would be that would mean that We'd get lower prices for Bitcoin and Cryptos now that narrative can come from
Anywhere and at the moment we've got a Narrative for BTC around the SEC Regulations and the death cross on the Weekly chart here and so when we do get These crosses which are typically Supposed to be bearish for the market They're so laggy that it probably Doesn't even matter in the the Long Haul Here not that we've ever seen one on Bitcoin before but when this signal is Used death crosses and golden crosses They're so laggy that it's probably Towards the end of the move anyway so I Don't think there's anything to be Worried about that's my opinion of BTC Provided we remain above significant Levels here around 18 18 and a half Thousand on any of these pullbacks we're Still in a pretty good position to Continue on 2023 aiming to put in higher Lows and and creep our way higher into That next stage of the bull market Leading into the Bitcoin harvesting in 2024 and of course you'll probably see Some altcoins pop up off with some mini Altcoin Seasons here and there so make Sure you do stay tuned to the channel Subscribe like follow us down below here Crypto economic report coming out this Week and of course our Channel sponsors By bit and bit get thousands of dollars Sign up bonuses and if you're only Trading spot you're not going to get Wrecked you can chill out you've also
Got zero percent fees on spot trading For a limited time so use those links Down below stay safe out there I'll see You guys at the next video for another Summary of the markets back testing some Of the macro signals and indicators out There otherwise I'll see you back here Tomorrow for the next video Until Then Peace out
