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Markets around the world are infatuated With what papapow has to say on a Short-term basis overnight the s p has Dropped a percent and a half it's also Led the US dollar to increase by 1.2 Percent which is then put pressure Across the board on other currencies so Is this the last chance the Bears have To bring in the fear throughout the Markets let's take a look at that in the Short-term analysis and then towards the End of the video we'll look at the Long-term macro analysis for Cryptocurrencies as well as our stock Markets the markets are finally looking Slightly interesting again so don't go Anywhere smash up that like button Subscribe to the channel we are your Home of macro cycle analysis across the Stock markets Commodities cryptos and The biggest of them all the real estate Cycle let's begin with the news Overnight looking at Fed chair Pals says Interest rates are likely to stay higher Than longer yes we've seen the stock Markets close on a short-term basis the Markets have dropped overnight but Remember we're looking at the bigger Picture here let's take a look at what The markets are expecting for the next Fed meeting yesterday was 68 for a 25 BPS now we are at 70 for a 50 BPS this Thing can flip on a dime Market's also Looking at the interest rates staying up
Slightly longer than they were yesterday We're looking at a few more months here At these higher rates of five and a half Percent now if we don't see the S P 500 Drop below key levels which we'll look At in a moment this is all priced in That's of course a big call to say but I'll show you those levels on the chart In just a moment for now let's take a Look at the fear and greed index for the Stock market now I was calling earlier On in the intro this is probably some of The biggest times that we will hear the Bears come out to play this is what We've been saying here on the channel For many days now as we started to Peak Up in early February so around that sort Of month period we're expecting the Market to come down so we were talking About for the end of Feb early March Looking for a low end to the market and If this happens to be that higher low Potentially forming here on the market Looking at these bottoms that are Forming here from December so if this Low that comes into the market around This time period in March ends up being Higher than October that would then set Us up with a higher low on the macro Picture so this is all still part of the Road map looking forward into 2023 for Potentially higher prices above 4 200. Now we did say that the Bears would get Extra loud on these moves to the
Downside the key that we have to look Out for is Will October get broken the Bears were very very loud here Throughout the December low and looks Like they're trying to come back to get Extra loud at this point we can see There's also on the the fear and greed Here through those December lows the Fear was back into the market you can See here the dates of mid-December Through to the end of December the fear Was really quite High uh well it was Quite High obviously the reading has to Be lower here in around those 30s However wasn't as low as the October Fear that was in the market and it Wasn't as low as the fear that came into The market through May and then again in June so we're starting to get a Lessening effect on these fearful days So the media is starting to sound extra Loud out there with any piece of fearful News that they can get their hands on But the market the data that we're Seeing here is that the fear is just not Spreading into the market like it once Did back in 2022 back in May back in June June of 2022 and also back in October which is where the current cycle Low is you can see the other previous Lows that the extreme fear came about Was earlier on in the move to the Downside here is the May area here is The June area and then this is your July
Area so for the fear and greed this is The level that the most fear was into The market so one might argue that if This Market starts to come down maybe We'll start to see that fear increase Again but we've got to remember to pay Attention to the price chart this is the One area that is really holding up now For support for this move to the upside If this area breaks of October that is The key to flip but for now we're in a Trading range and we've been in this Trading range since May so that's Roughly 300 days in this trading range Approximately 10 months within this Particular trading range on the S P 500 And very similar across us Bitcoin as Well the fear in the market has led the US dollar to increase another day here Breaking past the resistance level at Around 105. our upside targets are 107.8 around That 108 level you can see here about 50 So to the upside we still have a little Way to go before we hit some major Resistance levels at 108 you can see We've got about a two percent move there But for now the US dollar is down to 4.8 Percent to the upside in terms of time Which is critical here we've done 33 Days to the upside and in our previous Moves for the US dollar as we've covered Here many times before looking at these Moves to the downside uh they're also
Met with a reversal you can see here We've seen the reversal plenty times Before that one's in 2020 you can see Again in 2017 throughout these bear Markets of the US dollar they don't last Forever probably looking here for a a Few years but at least these occasions You can note that even though the market Has dropped quite significantly there is Always going to be a bounce in this Occasion the about the bounce was Approximately 98 days so it was in this Range for about a hundred days and the Upside that it had from the bounce was About 4.5 this one here in 2020 that Range to the sideways approximately 100 Days again the upside in terms of price About 3.2 percent so where does that Leave us right now well we're at around 4.7 so potentially coming towards the End of it but if we do happen to squeeze A little further than what's happened Before getting up to our 50 level that's Around the seven percent level remember Back in September when we were talking About it on the channel as a lesson here This period in the market it was loud it Was very extreme with the the media Talking about the US dollar going to new Highs and crushing every other market And essentially from that exact day that The news wasn't the loudest which may Not be today okay but from that exact Point history shows it's a fact now that
The market got absolutely crushed from Those Peak levels so it's you it's Almost always at that point where the News gets the most extreme that we see Turns and we can find this objectively On the chart looking at Key support and Resistance levels using our Tia Gan Swing indicator a link to this is in the Video description if you guys are Wondering essentially this allows us to Find some very key levels that show up For support and resistance entries and Exits so it's a great tool to have on Your charts if you are investing long Term or trading short term which leads Me to our free trading workshops there Is a link to this in the video Description it's through by bit and Bitget so check those out down below You'll need to use this particular form Three easy steps it is free trading Strategies that you can learn if you Already have some trading experience so Go and check that out in the top of the Video description and get on board with Our free trading work shops now we've Got the short term and long term to Cover for Bitcoin but just wrapping up On the US dollar looking at the long Term here we can be long-term bearish But short-term bullish this is the US Dollar long-term bearish we see a lot of Months down here so this is the macro Chart we see a lot of months down we're
Seeing some Resistance coming up at this point in Time but in the short term which is what We have seen we've seen multiple days of The rally this can just be a rally Within the bear Market the charter Showing some short-term strength in Amongst the long-term bear Trend you can See our swing indicator has broken down On the monthly chart here which is a Very key level you can see this level is Around 105. we're starting to break just Above that but the downside is much Greater than any of the of the previous Downside so that's something that is Quite important for the bear the Bulls To overcome if it's going to flip macro Bear to macro bull for now it's still on The downside the transistor down we have To respect the trends so essentially This timing may be coming to an end like We looked at in the short term which may Then start to give a little more Strength back to bitcoin but in the Short term we're going to see some Downside among stocks cryptocurrencies Until we see a rejection here for the US Dollar if we get a rejection the crypto Fear and greed indexes almost identical To what's going on in the stock market We're sitting at neutral even though We've seen the markets drop we saw the The U.S stock market drop s p Dow Jones There is a downside there however the
Market sentiment is holding up Relatively well this is something that We've been covering for quite some time Now if you agreed index here we're Looking at a breakout above the Downtrend to show us the strength in the Price we noted here in June at these Extreme lows this was the extreme panic In the market around that 17 18 000 Level in June and July we noted that This was an excellent buying opportunity Because of how far down the price had Come because of how extreme the fear was In the market then when the October November lows came in which was actually Lower for cryptocurrency in November for The s p it was October but for Bitcoin It was in November from the FTX debacle But the sentiment was also increasing Very similar to what was happening on The fear and greed index for the stock Market you can see the fear is just not As great in the market throughout this Period as those lows began to stabilize And then start to get higher so we're Starting to see that happen again in Cryptocurrencies we can see the Downtrend here maybe what the fear and Agreed index is coming back to so let's Keep an eye out for how the market Reacts at a price point once the fear And greed gets to around 40 or if it Gets to 40 that is and also at around The 30 point level these are going to be
Key areas for the market sentiment to React to price what that would show on The chart technically is another higher Low forming anywhere above these levels Here of December and January this thing Happened throughout June and again in October November again December we were Getting higher lows people were calling For ten thousand dollar Bitcoin or eight Thousand dollar Bitcoin however the Market bounced from that point because We're just not getting that same sort of Level of fear uh crushing the market Down it can come it can happen remember Through this point here in August and September of 2019 there were some Extreme fear readings however the price Was still much higher than that point And so the further we move away from These lows is going to become a lot Better for the price of Bitcoin if we Were to see some sort of extreme Panic Into fear but for now we're still around Those levels of around 22 000. this Could potentially put in a higher low Here at around 30 to 40 on the fear and Greed index which would still fall into Alignment with the macro picture of Bitcoin being bullish even though the Short term could is looking bearish and So that leads us to update the Bitcoin Chart here we're going to start on the Shorter term time frames uh compared to What we normally look at which is the
Longer term stuff here in terms of the Short term we're seeing breakdowns we're Seeing 22 000 hit that's what I'm Posting on Twitter about under 22k being A pretty good buying opportunity I know There's still a lot of people calling For much lower prices and I might be Shooting myself in the foot here because It is not what the masses want to hear The masses want to hear that we are Going much lower I'm going to be wrong All that sort of thing and so why don't Get as many subscribers and that sort of Stuff but at the end of the day I'm Sticking true to my analysis here on the Charts and just presenting you with what The charts are showing us right here These downside moves are becoming less And less Doesn't mean that we can't plummet a Little further but it's something to pay Attention to as the move carries on Remember our downside support levels are Around January here in the mid 20 Thousands we still have to get past the Mid 21 thousands so a couple of support Levels here and should those two both Break down well then we got all the way Back to around 18 and a half thousand Which were those previous low levels of The market and a previous resistance Level through that FTX debacle before The market started to shoot past those Levels so on a a little longer term than
The hourly chart on the daily chart here We have 21 and a half we have 20 and a Half and probably worst case scenario Around the mid 18 thousands so these to Me are pretty good buying opportunities Under 22k like I've been saying for a While now between that 18 and 22k is Probably one of our best buying Opportunities if we're able to get as Low as this region here it may only get To our halfway point at around twenty And a half thousand so keep that in mind If you're looking to DCA into Bitcoin Longer term overall for the macro Structure nothing has changed here still Long-term macro bullish yes the short Term could be bearish but that's what Happens throughout a macro picture You've got a view of the market going up Longer term obviously it doesn't go up In a straight line but there's always Those few people that think you're Turning bearish and bullish on the daily Basis here within a macro view of an Upside it's going to have some ball Periods some bare periods some more bull Periods maybe some consolidation and Then some moves again and at the moment We're in one of those shorter term Bearish Corrections hopefully it goes as Low as possible and maintains the Bullish structure which from my analysis Is around that 18 and a half thousand so It's some good buying opportunities but
If it doesn't get that far I'm still Looking towards 20 and a half to the Current prices here at around 22 000 for A good entry your opportunity for Bitcoin stay tuned for further updates On the channel like And subscribe and of Course in the top of the video Description there is our free trading Workshops where you can learn how to Trade using the Tia Gan swing indicator Subscribe to that check out those links Follow those three steps to get onto it And hopefully we'll see you over in the Trading workshops thanks once again guys Until the next one peace out
