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Bitcoins just posted three days straight In the green this time doing over nine Percent with the previous day doing just Seven percent so the big question now For the Bears is is this a bear trap are They gonna get liquidated and destroyed In the market let's take a look at some Of the major historic signals in these Times in the market that can help us Identify whether this is a trap for the Bears or are we about to explode to the Upside sure you like subscribe Bell Notification icon and if you are an Experienced Trader check out the link in The top of the video description get our Free trading strategies just by clicking That top link and going through those Three steps that's the last of the Shills for now let's start with what's Happening in the market there's been a Ton of news out there of course over the Last 24 hours especially for Bitcoin With CZ from Finance saying that it's Going to be buying a billion dollars Worth of bitcoin eth and BNB this of Course has led to some of the pumps in BTC a but in the macro economy what we Are also waiting for in about the next 36 hours is the CPI information or the The core PPI coming out month over month You can see this is uh this column here Is the previous the forecast and then We're waiting to see what actually comes Out from this data so we have some high
Impact news announcements coming up Which seems like what everyone is Waiting for now some of the other major Headlines that have come out are the fed Or the the government coming to step in To support the banks basically bring Some more money back to the banks the Ones who have collapsed as well the svbs Here and of course there is more Regulatory announcements from these bank Failures the fear here is that this is Going to spread across the rest of the Market which is why we're seeing the FED Say they're bringing up some regulatory Announcements this happens every single Time in the market and it generally Helps support the market people want to See more rules and regulations coming in When something bad goes wrong we just Think back to FTX the same sort of thing Happened then back in November but it Seems like everyone's forgotten about FTX already which is probably what's Going to happen again we'll have the Rules everyone will feel safe and Comfortable and feel like they want to Start investing into the markets again With that said that is also very quickly Changed the sentiment in the interest Rates this is precisely what we've been Talking about on the channel of course That's why I say to subscribe and watch The videos this changes at the drop of a Dime yesterday there was a zero percent
Chance that we stay at the same interest Rate now this is announcement is coming Up next week so we have the core PPI Coming up tomorrow and then next week we Had some of the high impact news Announcements on Thursday morning Wednesday night for the other guys in The the us there the interest rates were At a zero percent chance of remaining at Their current levels that was yesterday That was last week that was last month Now we have one in three are saying There is a chance of it remaining and Where it is and two in three or 65 Percent here say that we're going to get A 25 BPS that is a very different Picture from what we just saw yesterday Last week and last month there was all Of the possibility of us going up 50 BPS Now it's almost flipped the opposite all Of the people saying from 50 basically Gone to zero there's going to be no Interest rate rise so this is something To pay a little bit of attention to is What's coming up because this is Possibly how the market is going to Bounce out of this much low now I like To give you all of the facts that piece Is my opinion of why I think the market Will bounce out of these March lows Let's take a look at some of the major Setups and price levels where we Currently sit for the traditional Markets S P 500 we are on our 50 level
Right now at around 3 900 points if the Them that you guys that have been Following this know that this is the Exact price point that we're watching The first support Zone around these December lows to this halfway point at 38.50 so basically call it a 3800 level For easy numbers to the downside should The contagion continue and the interest Rates don't affect the market and we Continue to dump and the money doesn't Come through from the government and Everything just turns out to be an Absolute hogwash and we fall the next Level we have to watch is around 3 600 Points so let's keep that on the chart Now the negative news across the Traditional markets doesn't seem to be Affecting Bitcoin as it's gone on this Three-day pump two percent that first Day on Saturday seven and a half percent On Sunday and now we see 9.1 percent on Monday with a new day just opening but Is this a bear trap now I want to pay Attention to the logarithmic downtrend This is that bear Market downtrend that I have on the chart we've looked at this Many times before especially on the Breakout through January there end the Retest here in February a bounce out and Another retest at a lower price this is Always a possibility it's exactly what We talked about back here in February Even though we get the bounce it doesn't
Mean that we can't come back and test The log again like we've just seen in This case but the positive at least for The Bulls in the short term is that We've bounced off our 50 level uh right Here at around twenty thousand three Hundred dollars so that's a good start For the the Bulls now the Bears of Course want to see this get rejected Again here and start to break down into Some lower tops before it breaks that 50 That's going to be very bad for Bitcoin Because we've already just put in a Temporary low here the last standing Support is around eight eighteen and a Half thousand dollars so even if the Bears take control and we drop back down To test the log again break the 50 break The swing bottom which is all pretty bad For for Bitcoin or at least the Bulls at Least we still have that last line here At around 18 and a half so Bitcoin twin Has bounced off its logarithmic Downtrend because how does that show That this is a bear trap across the History of Bitcoin looking back at the Previous cycle the 2018 bear Market Cycle for Bitcoin you can see from this Logarithmic downtrend the key highs uh Noted here with the downtrend once this Market started to break through it was On for the Bulls this time was a major Move to the upside what we're seeing now Doesn't have to repeat exactly the same
But typically once we break through this Logarithmic downtrend we tend to see Further upside prices now if we pin the Line directly to those exact key turning Points you can zoom right in to see how Well this works you can see the market Just break out come back and test a tiny Little test in this case but that just Showed the strength to the upside for BTC at least in the 2009 pump after the Accumulation at the beginning of that Year nothing in trading or investing is 100 perfect and then logarithmic Downtrend may seem like it doesn't work In some cases just like in 2014 but we Need to apply other filters around these Particular times especially time filters Now these moves to the upside the Breakout of this downtrend happened Within one year we typically know for Bitcoin bear markets they last at least A year usually just slightly more than a Year this bear Market lasted a total of 411 days the next one in 2018 was Approximately 363 days so they're around that year Period or slightly more the current one 378 days so in this case this move was Under one year so we need to pay Attention to that where it starts to Break out and tries to consolidate above Those particular levels now with that in Mind we can zoom right in to the bottom Of where this Market started to break
Out of the log downtrend this was at the Period in June you can see the breakout And not a real retest here but we got That later in August where the market Did decide to dump and then start to put In another low in the market before it Pumped from that point so this is a nice Easy way to identify the log downtrend The clearer breakouts rather than the False breakouts here so keep that in Mind when it comes to those log down Trends have a time frame in mind and the Longer the time frame is the stronger That breakout is going to be and as for The log Trend within a market movement Already it's not as clear but you could Still use it on the 2019 top the market Did break out you can see here it tested It the pandemic dump the market quickly Recovered back to that logarithmic Downtrend line if you zoom right in you Can see just how clear the breakout the Retest the next retest before that Fateful day on the 12th and then the Market quickly recovering to test and Test and then take off from that point So although we've bounced off the Logarithmic downtrend it doesn't Necessarily mean that we must go to new Highs there is lower prices below this Lockdown Trend but it's just one signal That I like to use to identify that the Bear Market is probably over and then Layer that with other macro key signals
And the major of them all is the Breakout of those monthly swing tops 25 200 is going to be a key level for Bitcoin what could happen from this Point is that we Trend sideways and sort Of go a little bit quiet so that's Another option as well for the the state Of the market and the price action Coming up over the next few days or a Couple of weeks ideally for the Bulls You definitely want to see it break Above 25 000 relatively quickly and that Could come from any of the FED news the Government news any of the interest rate Announcements maybe we don't jump to a Half a percent rate increase maybe we Only do a quarter of a percent or we Remain as is or even some of the news That comes out tonight from the the CPI Announced announcements if any of this Stuff is what was expected or better Then we might see the s p jump from These levels which is a reasonable Support level to come in at the moment Which then could cause more upside to Bitcoin and break that 25k so that's how The the run of the announcements could Occur and then what may happen in price Now of course if any of that doesn't Happen let's wait and see where this Holds up for BTC so in terms of a bear Trap what is a bear trap bear trap is Rapid price decrease in an uptrend so a Rapid price decrease
In an uptrend we've seen an uptrend here And then we saw a rapid price decrease You can't argue that those last few days Was a rapid price decrease now the bear Trap often breaks local price support Before quickly reversing to the upside And encourage traders to open short Positions this is where the crypto Investors are getting liquidated now That may have led to a short squeeze With so many people getting liquidated We can take a look at the liquidations Here especially over the last four days We've seen Bitcoin shorts or trading Shorts get liquidated 71 million on the 10th 70 million on the 11th 150 million on the 12th and on the 13th 177 million so all in all getting close To half a billion dollars of Liquidations as Traders are trying to Short the hell out of Bitcoin at those Lows this is what is called a bear trap Now to finish the bear trap we need to Get it above uh 25 000 which is those Previous tops otherwise of course we can Get rejected at a lower top which is Bearish and we start to track down again That's what the Bulls don't want to see So for now Bears have been trapped Nearly 100 uh 500 million or half a Billion dollars has been liquidated from Shorts trying to get in that confirms That part of the bear trap let's see if The Bulls can take control and break
Above 25 300. not only has the Bitcoin Price pumped but the market sentiment Has also pumped now before I get too Deep into this analysis just a quick Reminder about our Tia Gan swing indica Header which helps us identify where Those key levels of support and Resistance are where key levels of Flipping are and then also our entries And exits for those trades link to that Is in the video description along with Our free trading strategies Workshop Click that link three steps get involved Especially if you are an experienced Trader already and want to up your game There with profits so in terms of the Market sentiment remember last today's Video These are the particular areas That we were looking for at around 30 to 40. reason being is they were previous Support and resistance levels on the Fear and greed index basically those Areas where people find some comfort in Whatever decisions they've made in the Market so we've found some support here At the lower 30s 33 and 34 and now the Last two days we have bounced up to Neutral at 49 and currently are at 56. We have moved back into greed after Being in fear just three days ago where All the way way back into great all the Way through neutral into greed but these Emotions typically range within a Sideways period of the market that old
Transitional stage that we've looked at Many times before on the s p and what I'm expecting in this case for Bitcoin This being that transitional period from Bears to Bulls you can see why it Happens now the news over the weekend Banks collapsing and now the market Pumping to the upside is just another Way that the emotions go from extreme Fear to extreme greed or in this case Fear to Greed and just jumping over that Neutral stage all together this is a Market characteristic of those lows that Are forming in the market people are Still unsure whether this is time to Pump or time to dump we saw all of the Financial Bears coming out over the Weekend to tell us that this was the end Of the world and all of the banks were About to collapse and lead to a Contagion across all the markets around The world yet for Bitcoin at least we Find ourselves bounce sing out of those Lows so we have then just completed a Bounce off the downtrend that's a good Sign to show that we are starting to Trend in the right direction and that of Course is to the upside at least for the Bulls the Bears obviously want another Opportunity to get lower prices but so Far the data that we're looking at Doesn't seem like they're going to get Their day it may but for now let's just Continue with data and continue with
Hitting that like subscribing to the Channel check out the links in the top Of the video description right now or The videos that are popping up on your Left hand side I'll see you guys back Here at the next video Until then have a Good one and peace out
