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If the Bitcoin bottom is in we can Potentially see prices crash up to 60 Percent so how does this occur when does It occur what will the price be let's Try and answer these questions in Today's video using objective data from The past that we have on bitcoin none of This is opinion I'll leave that until The end of the video so make sure you Stick around for that and in the Meantime Smash Up the likes as soon as You get here subscribe Bell notification Icon and if you want to learn more about Macro trading and investing check out The link in the top of the video Description for our free crypto and Economic report or if you want further Education Tia premium memberships uh in The link further down on the page let's Dive in to today's video looking at the Potential crash in the market coming up For Bitcoin if in fact the low is in so I'm going to take a really simple Approach to this looking at potential Areas for Tops in this rally potential Pull pullbacks and what we could expect Looking at Market sentiment time and Price for our analysis now straight up In the beginning My Views haven't Changed on the market I'm looking at Everything from a macro point of view But I understand that once markets do Start to move there is the possibility Of significant pullbacks and if I had
Happened to board near the Peaks or Around those Peaks I have to expect that Maybe the market is going to collapse Drop fall crash whatever you want to Call it against me and what those Signals would look like in the market so That I can hold my position steady Because we know time and time again from Crypto and Bitcoin we can get into Positions we see the market pumping Where entering as we're seeing some Breakouts or we're buying on the dips But then the market likes to correct it Has to do that every single time so my Position hasn't changed overall but I I Am fully aware that markets can have These big Corrections and that's what I Want to look at in today's video in Terms of how this could happen and where It could happen so I can prepare for it Should this same sort of significant Move happen in what sort of time frame As well so I want to start back early in The piece going back to 2011 and 2012 as The market was running up from that Point earlier on from that 2009 we have The data there that's now coming here This is a little bit sketchy you can see A lot of gaps so I want to start it from About this point which is where I've Done a lot of the analysis from in the Past because you know we can see a Pretty significant drop here and there's Really no numbers underneath one cent
Like we haven't been able to break this Down as to what those prices were just Yet it's all basically zero anyway Moving forward from that the peak Coming in in 2011 down to the bottom Here in late 2011 from memory was about 93 crash so there is 93.75 and so I'm Using the Gan swing indicator here with Settings at two bars or if you're Looking at a candle chart two candles And this is set to weekly so these are These yellow swing lines that you can See here and if you want access to that It's in the top of the video description Too again swing indicator it's what I Use for all of my trading entering Positions exiting positions where I can Put profit targets stop losses and just To allow me to see where the smart money Is buying and selling and basically Giving me those pivot Points for when The market breaks out of some of these Significant areas which I'll do another Video on in the near future this is some Pretty good data on that coming out at The moment so we've basically rallied up From this low in November pushed higher Into January 2012 so about 11 years ago Now and this first pull back was about 46 percent so pretty straightforward we Had a pretty good run out of that bottom The run out of the bottom was low to High 262 percent and then a 46 retracement
From that point now following these Swings you can see the market uh headed Straight up from that point and using The swings it kept you nice and safe in The market all the way up that's what We'll look at in a future video but for Now just looking at some significant Pullbacks uh basically what people would Get extremely fearful about oh Definitely would as well with an 80 Pullback or a drawdown in your portfolio And then looking at it in terms of the Bounce from there and then the following Pullback from that point so from the Bounce the market went up about 172 Percent so we've seen 262 now 172 and The the pullback from there was about 51.89 so basically 52 from that Peak to The downside with that in time being one Two three four five six or so weeks now These are much shorter periods than what We're currently seeing because the Market has changed uh quite a lot since Then but the movements continue to be Quite similar So fast forwarding now to the uh the Biggest bear Market of that time 2014 Into 2015. you can see we had some nice Clear swing tops uh breaking down now Out of that bottom so basically the First bottom for 2015 and I say the First bottom because we're using the Index here the Bitcoin index and it Shows up that there was a second bottom
Here in August basically a lower low However this is the index of Bitcoin Which brings all of the data together That it had at that time and then give a Price from all of the data not just from One specific exchange so from that first Low to the Top Market ran up 82 percent Crashed 30 over the course of one two Three four five six weeks again then we Know it went sideways from there moved Up again and then crashed over the Course of I believe it was about five or Six weeks again so six weeks to that Next low which was 48.7 so around 50 Percent and low now if I'm only going to Use the prices say to that second Low here in August or even the closing Prices because remember this is the Index and maybe some of those other Exchanges didn't go as low as this low Then we're looking at around 37 38 to The closes around 28 pretty similar to What it did the previous time so around That 30 level so so far we've got 52 46 30 odd percent and then another One here at about 49 Market ran up broke Out of this accumulation period after a Couple of bottoms and a couple of tops So looking at the Double tops and the Double bottoms and then put in another 28 and a half percent move down so Somewhere around that 30 percent level So moving forward this is a 2017 bull Market these have been measured many
Many times before we can go through it And have a quick look just to the Downside because this is in a bull Market that's 40 for the first move Something more significant once here That was another 39.5 so basically 40 And before the top came in another Significant move to the downside 40 so a Lot of 40 Within the bull market So for the the bear Market we're looking At the times where the bottom was in Market ran away from the bottom and then Came back to crash so 2019 Had the higher low 2018 December that Was lower low so they're at the bottom There and then the top was June so the Crash from the top was 53 percent Market Started to run up from there we had the Pandemic crash at the old Black Swan Event And that was 63 percent So buying any sort of Black Swan event That we see in the future which of Course is Black Swan event who's going To see that's the whole point of it Being a Black Swan not calling Everything a Black Swan but essentially Barring any sort of Black Swan the max We've seen so far is 53 and a half Percent but even with a Black Swan look 63 that extra bit of dumpage happening There so this bottom this is not the Bottom obviously we've got a 52 draw Down there but let's look to the bottom
That was a 38 which then brings us to Today's information the data that we Currently have on the chart so looking At where we are if this is the bottom I Know I've talked a lot about November Um most likely being the bottom but I'm Not saying that it is the bottom because We're not far enough away from it just Yet but there are a lot of signals Saying that the bottom is in let's leave It at that this is a probabilities game Not a certainties game if you want Certainties then you're better off going Into a nine-to-five job and even then It's not all the certainty is in the World but we're in investing so there's No certainties it's all probabilities Looking at the upside and the downside From here if we to if we are to drop Between that 30 and 60 from the current High 25 000 30 would bring us out to About the previous low of 17 and a half Thousand dollars maybe there's a spike Low from this point to that level that Would be something that a lot of people Are looking out for but maybe that just Doesn't come in and this isn't the top Just yet but if we were to if we're just Looking at this being the top go 30 uh Sorry from the top now twenty five Thousand we come down to 40 that brings Us out to about the previous low so it Is 38 and a half percent 40 it's a little bit lower to 14K if we
Take it to 50 percent Then we're looking at 12 and a half K And we take it to 60 then we're at Around we're under ten thousand dollars And many of you know by now that I've Put out plenty of video titles and Tweets saying that you could kiss the Ten thousand dollar level goodbye we're Currently at a double top maybe I'll Have to eat my words but for now we're Anticipating a trading range in the uh Low to mid 20s where it currently sits And then maybe we push up that little Bit further to some of these other Prices some of these other resistance Levels at around 29 to 32 000 why am I picking those levels well Let's do a measure from the bottom to Around those previous resistance or Support levels which could become Resistance that's 29 and a half there is About 34 that's 120 so to the lower end Of these numbers we're looking at about An 80 move from the low which isn't Unheard of in all of bitcoin's history Considering this move from the December Low to the June top was about 330 Percent we've also got 100 moves in 2015. so you can see the low to the top Being around 300 that's about 100 there We can take it back to the previous Cycle as well going to some of the other Moves out of significant lows after this Was a 90 drop so this low was at uh two
Bucks going all the way up to seven Dollars so another 260 move so an 80 Move really isn't out of the question Maybe we need a few more weeks just to Hold out where we are but at eighty Percent if we're to measure from that Low so that's the first point that we're Looking at right here so it's at 29.5 or Sorry 28.5 call it around 29. To the downside we'll first use 30 drop So a 30 drop takes us to about twenty Thousand seven hundred dollars let's Zoom in so we can see a bit better There it is right there so there's your 29 30 drop and that is also a Significant support level for BTC Further down we take it out to forty Percent brings us down to the eighteen Thousand dollar level so that's the Level that we've been uh interested in For significant support efforts to come Into the market I don't really want to See it break much lower if this is to be The low but if we're to go from 29 and a Half down to the 50 drop which the Market has done often Then would be added just under that Previously about a thousand bucks under That low because the low there is it 15 400 this takes down to fourteen thousand Seven hundred so fifty percent from that Level so maybe we don't get the 50 but We get something that we've had in the Past around the 30 drops
What about if we look at where the other Significant resistance uh levels could Come in which are around the 32 33 000 And we also know that uh one of our Major 50 levels basically the top to Zero so a halfway point is thirty four And a half thousand dollars the top was 69 divide that by two that's thirty four And a half thousand dollars so we'll use These low levels here at about 33 Okay So we're looking around that mid Thirty thousand dollar level draw this Line across and then we measure from 33 Down 30 odd percent that would then put Us back to where we currently are we're At 24K that'll drop us down to about 23k That could then become uh the old Resistance could become support if we Look to drop around 26 from those levels Take it down 40 percent Then we would be looking somewhere Around 19 700 I don't see too much uh Going on around that level up the 40 Drop so let's go down to 50 drop and That would take us back down to around The 16 to 17K level which could come out Just short of 50 and give us some Support at the old previous resistance At around that 16.5 17K level that's a Pretty severe drop from those prices but We've seen that in the past we have to Be anticipating that now I've only used Moves from the low to any of these Resistance points to the upside which
Basically come out at if I'm using this Low here at 29 It's coming out about 85 and if I use The other levels at the lows of January 2022 it's coming out about 113 what if The market was actually able to Rally To a 50 level like it has done in the Past what am I talking about well if we Measure the range And we look at the low To the high Well the previous cycle high you can see In the previous Bear Market to the first running of the Ball before the pullback we hit dead on 50 obviously there were Wicks but you Can see the clothes was underneath it For this week the clothes was underneath It for the following week rejected you Can see the clothes happen to fall Almost dead on it the next week and then The market fell away into that 53 Pullback so that was a 50 it ran up to The 50 level from the low now what Happened in the previous cycle was that It didn't make it to that 50 from the Low before a 30 or 50 pullback and I'm Throwing a lot of numbers out here But where it did end up running to once It broke out You can see this first really really Solid move came up hit 50 got rejected And then it went sideways for many weeks It was about June to the breakout in
October so six uh sorry three to four Months under the 50 level before it Broke out again so a pretty good move There as well so let's look at 50 what Would happen if Bitcoin was to go from Where it currently is and run up to the 50 level this is a pretty significant Move here So from the low To the 50 that's at forty two thousand Two hundred pretty wild to think about That now but I'm just throwing it out There because this has been support it's Had a little bit of support resistance Here in January they got rejected again In February uh rejected a couple of Times here with those Wicks only managed A couple of weeks out before it fell Under it and then 42 was also a pretty Good level through September when the Market dropped to the low here and then Held ground at forty two thousand Dollars there was also the peak back in January so that was when the bull market Just started in January 2021 that Peak Was almost dead on forty two thousand Dollars so this could be a reasonable Area for Bitcoin to go on a ridiculous Run and then have a pullback I'm not Saying it's going to happen in a Straight line or in February or in March Maybe this takes approximately six Months now come to the six month reason In just a moment because we will also
Mentioned at the beginning how long Could this take but first I want to look At where or how big this percentage move Is from the low and that move is 175 Percent I'm flabbergasted to even think Of this at this point in time seeing as We're only at 24K we still need to break Through there's still a lot of bears in The room thinking we're going to go to 10 or 9k so this seems utterly crazy I Don't know I'm going to get the comments Down below saying it's ridiculous what Are you even doing here but we're just Looking at scenarios for where the move Could go and then look at where those Pullbacks are because history has shown That we will get something between 30 And 50 with the odd chance of a 60 drop Somewhere within the pullback after the Move out of the low obviously Considering obviously saying that this Isn't 100 confirmed but this is what we Have to use right now So if we're to get to 42 and we pull Back from that point the 30 brings us Down to the previous lows so that was The previous Bare cycle low you know this was through That crazy period of 2021 in the middle Of the Year 30 would take us out to About those lows there so that seems Like a pretty logical area for the Market to run up to and then pull back To but if we do run hard then we're
Probably going to have a bigger pullback From that point because we need to get All the balls into the market and that Would be your your bull trap narrative Meaning that you'd have all of these Bulls thinking wow this is absolutely Amazing I better buy in because I'm Going to miss out on the run and then Everyone Buys in at the top again and Then of course we get the pullback you Know it's just the the classic Manipulation in the market Then we got a pretty severe pullback so That those Bulls get scared out and they Drop their Bitcoin and you just get that Movement of dumb money to Smart money so The pullback of 40 from that level comes Out pretty cleanly at around 25 000 so the previous resistance levels The current resistance level and that Previous top in August so 40 looks like A pretty good move from that point but What if we go 50 from 42 well we can all Hopefully do maths and 42 divide by 2 is 21 000. let's see if I'm right there There's your there's your 21k at 50 Drawdown that would really bring it back To these key support resistance levels Back in this accumulation Zone maybe It's just a week into there and out the Following week who knows but that's your 50 level from the market rallying up to Any sort of 50 level Now the last one I want to have a quick
Look at is if we only get back to the 38 Level which is 36 000 other pretty good Resistance levels just a quick look here To the downside 30 is the tops twenty Five thousand dollars forty percent Brings us back to this level here in That 21k area which is also pretty good Support resistance and then a 50 drop That brings us out to about eighteen Thousand dollars so going through all of These numbers is really just to get it Give us an idea of where this could Possibly run and how much we could Possibly expect on a pullback should we See a significant pullback out of all of This what I would say is the further up We run probably the bigger pullback We're going to get if this happens to be The top for now then we probably will Only get a shallow pullback at these Levels and we do run nice and hard That's going to suck a lot of people Into the market which then brings in the Volatility and allows the market makers The manipulators the whales whatever you Believe is true out there to be able to Force their hand at the weaker hands and Get that more significant pushback Really because we wouldn't have had the Time to build up to that space yet so Moving forward the idea here is to look At where this top comes in once we Identify that there's probably a Significant Turning Point come in like
We saw through this period that took Quite a few weeks to play out then we Can start to measure from those tops 30 To 50 percent of the the pullback level And that could then be our next Significant DCA level so this is where We're all coming to to find out a new Area of buying Bitcoin because that was One of the significant questions that I Had recently on my q a that I did on Instagram so if you're not following an Instagram there's a little sneaky plug Instagram down here and Twitter's there As well I just did a q a saying what's Your biggest concerns with crypto and Bitcoin at the moment and I'll post up Here there's a lot of questions from People saying where should I buy next How much further will Bitcoin come down Is it too late are we going to see 18 000 Bitcoin again and it really all Depends on where does this top price Come in we've identified several key Possibility for for resistance levels And then we can measure to the downside Many of these numbers that have come up Before your 50s your 30 drawdowns and we Would have a pretty good area to Identify a new DCA level for BTC Naturally the next question that comes Up is well if it could go up that high Why not just buy it now you know if 25 Or 24 000 is lower than if we ran up to 42 and
Then had a pullback why not just buy it Now That's open to you as well we haven't Had this happen yet we haven't had that Happen yet and maybe we have this happen Next it's all if thens and maybes in the Market if you're looking for certainty You've got to go back to a nine-to-five Job if you're looking for weighing up The probabilities investing is your game Trading is your game and so we're just Weighing up the probabilities of where These could line up you know if they Were to come to these levels what's the Probability of the pullback 30 is it a 50 move what have we seen in the past And how do we best prepare for that Which leads me to the timing of these Areas of potential resistance for a more Macro look sure in the short term I'm Looking for a bit of a pullback or at Least a pause in this zone for February March so that's within a few weeks but In terms of the longer scale here the Months the months here we've had 12 Months down so this is approximately 12 Months slightly longer we know it's About 378 days so to the upside maybe we Only see 50 in time as well so 12 months Half of 12 months is six months what's November plus six months approximately May what have we seen in the past well We've seen a 12-month move this is December down to December of the
Following year there's 12 months the Move to the upside is around six months That's what's happened in the last cycle So you've got December into a June top So it took half the time to recover half Of the move pretty interesting how this Gan analysis continues to work out time And time again it doesn't always have to Be that exact half and half but it's a Pretty good Target to look at because You know I can go back to the previous Cycle here now this was a longer move to The the low so we can use this low here So that's 410 days 13 days or the 630 Day load there's two loads there but the Main thing I'm going to do from this Point is how long did it take to run up To the 50 level so if you're looking at Halfway points there's 300 days from This low which took 600 days so you had 50 in time and 50 in price run up pretty Interesting stuff here uh from the Gan Analysis which is why I continue to go On and on about it as I have done in This video especially the Gan swing Indicator which you can find here in the Video description that is going to be a Future video because this has gone on a Little too long so stick around on the Channel like And subscribe this is what I'm thinking is uh happening next or how I'm preparing for what's happening next Should we continue this move up to any Of these potential resistance levels of
29k around 32 33k 34 or 36 and then 42 Just waiting to see where that top comes In so that I can then set myself up for The next opportunity to DCA into Bitcoin At a safer level because we've had the Pullback however if that's not your game By all means stick to your plan if you Think 10K is coming great if you think 24 is a great number go for gold this is All up to you it's your own individual Plan I hope you found some value from it If you did share it with a friend like Subscribe I'll see you guys at the next Video otherwise I'll see you earlier on Twitter Instagram or as a member in Tia Until next time peace out
